research & systematic observations (ix) vulnerability assessment, impacts and adaptation...

Research & Systematic Observations (IX)Research & Systematic Observations (IX)

Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII)Adaptation Measures (VII)

National Climate Program CZECH REPUBLIC

presented by

Jan PretelCzech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague

UNFCCC Workshop on 3rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001

Parts VII and IX of the 3.NCNational Climate Program (establ. 1990)• improve scientific cooperation on national level• 1st national project 1991-1992• US Country Study Programme 1993-1996• several small projects supported by Ministry of

Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Academy of Sci., Charles University, Czech Grant Agency, etc.

• Decisions 14/CP.4, 5/CP.5• preparatory phase of new national project 1999• 2nd national project 2000-2001(Science&Research Project)• focused on IPCC TAR and 3rd NC

1999-2001(Science&Research Project)

ClimateScience, Data

VulnerabilityImpacts

Adaptation

Regional Scenario

Variability, Extrems

Observations

Hydrology

Agriculture

Forestry

Human Health

Climate models – nodal point positions C - CGCM1, CS - CSIRO, E - ECHAM4, H - HadCM2, NC - NCAR3, SR - CCSR

E E E E

E E E E

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2442

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

C S C S C S

C S C S C S

N C N C N C N C

N C N C N C N C

C C C C

C C C C

C C C C

S R S R S R

S R S R S R

Model validy HadCM2 Tmean

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

50 / 11,25 50 / 15 50 / 18,7550 / 22,5 average Czech Republic

[°C]

Regional Climate Change Scenarios

• IPCC DDC• downscaling• temperature - 2030

– increase by• spring 1.0 oC, summer 1.6 oC, autumn 1.2 oC, winter 0.9 oC,

year 1.2 oC

• precipitation – 2030– increase by 3-8%

• predominantly in winter

Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)

0

50

100

150

200

250

:> 0,1 MM > 1 MM > 5 MM

Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

> 10 mm > 20 mm > 30 mm > 50 mm

Number of days with daily minimum air temperature below given threshold

Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

< 0°C <-5°C < -10°C < -15°C

Number of days with daily maximum air temperature above given threshold

Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

> 15°C > 20°C > 25°C > 30°C

Hydrology and Water Resources

• effects on streamflow, groundwater recharge, runoff, water quality

• temperature increase by 2oC ~ streamflow reduction by 10-15% due to evaporation

• flood magnitude and frequency in some regions• water quality degradation• potable water production and consumption

Hydrology and Water Resources

• adaptation– water resource management techniques– effective use of water– trade with water– reduction of water shrinkage– water use reduction in industry, energy, agriculture

sectors and households– part of State Environmental Policy– sustainable development

Agriculture

• crop yield respons to climate change• shift to more thermophilic crops• effect of plant heat stress (extreme temperature

events)• less moisture in growing season• heavy rain periods (june, september) erosion• crop modelling assessment

Agriculture

• modelled climate change effect– CO2 increase: corn +24%, wheat +33%– T + CO2 increase: corn +16%, wheat +31%

• adaptation– agrotechnical management – adjustment to planting dates– fertilization rates– irrigation applications– selections of plants, species

Forestry

• 22% of territory covered by forests (spruce 54%, pine 18%)

• climate change effects on forests– dry stress– combined effects (air temperature + soil moisture +

local air quality)• adaptation

– change of tree species, shift to foliate trees, integrated forest protection

– changed forest management