review of japan energy policy
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Review of Japan's Energy Policy andrec on o e oa o cy
Se tember 4 2012
Hisayoshi AndoDirector-General,
Natural Resources and Fuel Department, ANRE, METI
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Index
1. Review of Japans energy policy 1
2. Overview of the resource security strategy 6
.
and direction of policies 8
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1. Review of Japan's Energy Policy
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Japan is poorly endowed with energy resources, which are indispensable to economic and social activities. To meet the
History of Japans Energy PolicyHistory of Japans Energy Policy
,ensure energy security, economic efficiency, and the environment.
1 Res ondin to the oil crises 1970s-80sEnergysecurity
1973: First oil shock
Energysecurity
Economicefficiency1990s +
[(2) Promoting regulatory reform (since 1990s)]: econ o s oc
Energysecurity Environment
Economicefficiency+ +
[(3) Coping with global warming issues (since 1990s) ]
2000s4 Enhancin resource securit 2000s
1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted2005: Kyoto Protocol came into effect
Energysecurity Environment
Economicefficiency+ +
Enhanced resource security
[(5) Current Basic Energy Plan]2002: Basic Act on Energy Policy enacted2003: Basic Energy Plan established (revised in 2007 and 2010) 2
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Developing the Strategy From ScratchDeveloping the Strategy From Scratch
The current Basic Energy Plan adopted in June 2010 seeks to increase power dependence onnuclear energy to more than half by 2030. This should be reviewed from scratch.Energy saving
(in 100 millions of kWh)
12,000 GDP: 1.4-fold increaseby 2030Power demand: 1-fold
increase by 203010,20010,239 Renewablesetc.
8,000
, Including about 30%energy saving
21%Renewables etc. 21%26%
6,000
Improved capacityutilization rate(60.7% in 2007
approx. 90% in 2030)28%
4,000
53% Nuclear 53%Fossil fuels
66%
Renewablesetc.
25%
2,000
Coal
Natural gas
11%
13%25%
Fossil fuels
26%Fossil fuels74%
25%
59%
13%
01970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 2030
Oil etc.2%Basic Energy Plan
First oil crisis (material for the third meeting of the Energy and Environment Council on October 3, 2011) 3
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In preparation for the formulation of the new Basic Energy Plan, the Fundamental Issues Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for
(Fundamental Issues Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy: Released on June 19, 2012)
Points in the Draft for Energy Mix OptionsPoints in the Draft for Energy Mix Options
Natural Resources and Energy began the considerations in October, 2011. After 26 discussions total, they summarized the Draft for EnergyMix Options, which is a report for the Energy and Environment Council, on June 19.
.
(1) With considerations to consumers behaviors and social infrastructure reform,
fundamentally enhance energy saving/power saving policies(2) Maximize the acceleration of the development/utilization of renewable energy
(3) Effectively utilize fossil fuel while fully considering for environmental load, such as
.
(4) Reduce the power dependence on nuclear energy as much as possible
2. Fundamental perspectives in energy mix options
4 Relationshi with lobal warmin issues
(2) Correlation with the energy system reformmeasures
(5) Importance of technical innovations mpor ance o n erna ona perspec ves
(6) Recognition of uncertainty in the future
SOURCE:FundamentalIssues Subcommittee of the Advisor Committee for Natural Resources and Ener : Released on June 19, 2012
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2030
Three Scenarios for 2030Three Scenarios for 2030
2010 scenar o 15% scenario 20-25% scenario
Current StrategicEnergy Plan ofJapanBefore additionalmeasures
After additionalmeasures
Share of nuclear 0% 0% 15% 20 to 25%energy (-25%) (-25%) (-10%)
(-5 to -1%)
Share of renewableenergy 10% 30%+20% 35%+25% 30%+20% 30 to 25%+20 to +15% 20%
Note 1
Share of fossilfuels coal, gas, oil 63%
70%
28%,36%,6%
(+5%)
65%
21%, 38%, 6%
(Current level)
55%
20%, 29%, 5%
(-10%)
50%
18%,27%,5%
(-15%)35%
Share of non-fossil energyresources
37% 30%(-5%)
35%(Current level)
45%(+10%)
50%(+15%)
65%
Electric energygenerated
1.1 trillionkWh
pprox.trillion kWh
(-10%)
pprox.trillion kWh
(-10%)
pprox. r onkWh
(-10%)
pprox. r onkWh
(-10%)
Approx. 1.2trillion kWh
consumption
390 million kl m on(-72 million kl)
m on(-85 million kl)
m on(-72 million kl)
m on(-72 million kl)
340 million kl
Greenhouse gas- - -23% -23% -25% (Around -
(compared to 1990).
(-21%) (-22%) (-25%)
Note 1: The share of nuclear energy under the current Strategic Energy Plan of Japan (53%) is the share of large-scale power sources (excluding cogeneration and private power generation) Note 2: Figures in parentheses indicate only energy-related CO2 emissions.
The shares mean those in the electric energy generated. Figures in parentheses indicate changes from 2010 before the Great East Japan Earthquake.
o e
7
5SOURCE: O tions for Ener and the Environment Outline The Ener and Environment Council Decision on June 29 2012 Jul 2012 National Polic Unit
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2. Overview of the resource security strategy
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3. Current situation surrounding coal
and direction of policies
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Coal accounts for about one quarter of the worlds energy demand and more than 40% of generated energy. Coal energy demand
The Role of Coal in the Worlds Energy ResourcesThe Role of Coal in the Worlds Energy Resources
an coa -generate energy are expecte to increase y a out 1.25 times an 1.50 times, respective y, towar 2035.Global coal resource competition is increasingly intense due to the rapid increase of coal demand in China, India and otheremerging countries .
30,000
35,000
40,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
(TWh)
RenewableHydroNuclearGasOil
RenewableHydroNuclearGasOil
15,000
20,000
25,000
2729
1.56,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
, oa Coal
0
5,000
10,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009
Source: IEA, World Ener Outlook 2011
41
About 1.5 times
0
2,000
4,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: IEA, World Ener Outlook 2011
About 1.25 times27 2433
Power generation composition of major countries (2009)][Primary energy composition of major countries (2009)]
67% 17% 3%1%
1%
1%2% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
IndiaChina 79%
0% 2%
2% 17% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
IndiaChina
22%
16%
21%
22%
33%
35%
42%
37%
24%
25%
17%
25%
11%
14%
15%
10%
1%
2%
1%
1%
3%
9%
8%
2%
5%
UK
Germany
EU
Japan
USA
44%
27%
27%
45%
1%2%
3%
9%
1%
13%
23%
27%
23%
23%
28%
27%
20%
3%
10%
7%
7%
15%
9%
3%
4%
UK
Germany
EU
Japan
USA
Source: IEA, "World Energy Outlook 2011"& "Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD Countries(2011 Edition)"
Source: IEA, "World Energy Outlook 2011"& "Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD Countries(2011 Edition)"
27% 33% 21% 6% 2% 11%world total
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables
41% 5% 21% 13% 16% 3%world total
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables
9
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Recoverable Coal Reserves in the World(by country and grade)Recoverable Coal Reserves in the World(by country and grade)
Russia (157.0Bt)
Euro e 10.8Bt
Canada (6.6Bt)
China (114.5Bt)
U.S. (237.3Bt)
India (60.6Bt)
Other African countries (1.5Bt) Colombia (6.7Bt)
Other Asian countries (47.6Bt)
Other SA countries (5.8Bt)Indonesia (5.5Bt)
South Africa (30.2Bt)Australia (76.4Bt) bituminous
+anthracite
lignite(22.7%)
Source: WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2010, BP Statistics 2010
.subbituminous(30.3%)
10
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Coal reserve, consumption and tradeCoal reserve, consumption and trade
The worlds top 5 coal reservecountries1 U.S.2 Russia 75% of the
apan s coa mpor s n were a ou . m on ons.
184.56 million tons in 2010Breakdown of 2011 coal import: fuel coal(about 112Mt), coking coal (about 69Mt), anthracite (about 5Mt)
About 80% of Japans coal imports are from Australia (60%) and Indonesia (20%)
4 Australia5 India
world reserveJapan is the second largest coal importer in the world. 99% of coal used in the country isimported. (Domestic production is about 1.3Mt (in 2011) accounting for about 1% of
domestic consumption.)
countries1 China 3.7Bt2 U.S. 0.9Bt3 India 0.7Bt
69% of theworlds
consum tion
,rapidly. Imports by China and India, in particular, are increasing sharply.
Global trade volume is about 1.2 billion tons (15% of which is imported by China)- About 15% of coal production is traded. (Coal is a resource of local production and local
consumpt on, n pr nc p e.
Coal reserve (2011)(including lignite)
Coal consumption (2011)(including lignite)
Worlds coal import (2011)(including lignite)
Coal exporter to Japan (2011)
Canada
10Mt6%
U.S.6Mt4%
China5Mt3%
Vietnam1Mt1%
Other1Mt1%
China212Mt
18%Other
320Mt27%Japan
Poland146Mt
2%
S. Korea130Mt
2%
Australia120Mt
2%Other
1,150Mt15%U.S.
237.3Bt28%Ukraine33.9Bt
Kazakhstan33.6Bt
4%
Africa30.2Bt
3% Other76.8Bt
9%
Australia105Mt
60%Indonesia
35Mt20%
Russia11Mt
7% Coal import175 million tons
(2011)
Recoverablereserves
860.9 billion tons(2011)
Japan175Mt
15%
IndiaRussia
Spain16Mt
1%
France15Mt
1%Coal import
1,177 million tons(2011 estimates)
China3,648Mt
48%
India687Mt
Germany230Mt
3%
South Africa183Mt
2%
2% Coal consumption7,628 million tons(2011 estimates)
Russia157.0BtAustralia76.4Bt
India60.6Bt
7%
Germany40.7Bt
5%
Source: IEA Coal Information2012Source: BP Statistics2012 Source: MOF Trade Statistics
S. Korea133Mt
11%
11%71Mt6%
Germany41Mt4%
U.K.
32Mt3%
2%
11
. .925Mt
12%Russia233Mt
3%
China114.5Bt
13%
9%
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Imports in India have increased by 5 times in 8 years between 2003 and 2011
Situation on coal resource development in the world Increased imports in China/India Situation on coal resource development in the world Increased imports in China/India
In China, domestic consumption has rapidly increased since 2003. Imports have sharply increasedby 17 times in the same time period. On the other hand, the exports have decreased toapproximately 25% of what it was in 2003.
- .largiest coal importer in the world)
Both countries economic growth is expected to continue in the future. The coal imports for thesecountries with high ratios of coal fired power generation are expected to increase.
India (excluding lignite) China (excluding lignite)120800 2504,000
80
100
600
700
C o a l i m p o
i l l i o n t o n s
)
2003,000
3,500
C o a l i m p o i
l l i o n t o n s )
40
60
300
400
r t s / e x p o r t s ( m c o
n s u m p t i o n
(
100
150
1,500
2,000
, r t s / e x p o r t s ( m i l
o n s u m p t i o n
( m
0
20
0
100
200 i l l i o n t o n s )
a l p r o
d u c t i o n
0
50
0
500
1,000 l i o n t o n s )
a l p r o
d u c t i o n
/
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11* C
Production Consumption Imports Exports
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11* C
Production Consumption Imports Exports
Note: Expected value as of 2011. Source: IEA, Coal Information 2012 12
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Coals long-term contract prices had been shifting in a relatively stable manner. However, due to the increase in coal
Shift in coal resource prices (long-term contracts)Shift in coal resource prices (long-term contracts)
, , ,etc., it has been on an increasing trend.
In recent years, it has remained high due to natural disasters in coal producing countries and the sudden increase incoal demand in China and India, etc. In addition, the peak has very recently passed and is on a declining trend due to
330
350US $/t Shift in long-term contract prices for coal
e excess supp y ue o e wor w e econom c e er ora on.
Increase due to300 315
285300
Sudden drop in price due to thesimultaneous economic deteriorationworldwide caused by subprime loans
the lack of supplyfrom the heavyrain that started inDecember, 2010
Coking coal
Steaming coal
200
225
209225 235
206225
200
Sudden increase in the price due to;
(1) Production stop in part of the coal mine due to the heavy rain inQLD, Australia(2) Stagnation of coal transportation and temporary export stop due to
heavy snow in ChinaPrice dropped due to the
125115
25
125
98 98
130
130 130 130 115
150
Improved due to the increased productionin Australia and Canada
Price increased due toworldwide coal demand
2nd quarter of2012
worldwide economicdeterioration
46.9 50.452.8
51.8 51.3 49.345.4551 53.5 53.5 50.95
41.9 39.7542.7548.1 46.2
57.297
5352.555.5
6998 98
50
100
Price increased due to:(1) Increased demand for coal in China, India, etc.
crisis
35.6539.1540.85
39.8538.9 36.3534.3540.3
40.337.6534.5
29.9528.75 34.5 31.8526.75
01988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012
Year
*Prices are FOB prices of representative Australian coal
(2) Stagnation of coal transportation due to heavysnow in China
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It is essential to strengthen the relationship with main coal supply countries, such as
Resource Diplomacy for CoalResource Diplomacy for Coal
Australia and Indonesia, and build a relationship with countries expected to be newsuppliers, such as Mongolia and Mozambique.
Other
Russia
Expected as a stable supplier to Japan in mid Russia
Canada
5%
4%
China3%
2%
Reevaluated as supply sources
USA/Canada
*Eriga coal field (Sumitomo Corporation, etc)
Mon olia
175Million ton Australia60%Indonesia
20%
the Shale Gas Revolution, etc.
IndonesiaThe second largest coal
Gathering worldwide attention ofhigh quality coking coal
Large interests of Japanese Coal import by Country in
supplier to Japan
Increasing of Japans
import recently
companies
*Taban Tolgoi coal field
Japan (2011 actual)
The largest coal exporter in the worldMozambique Australia Columbia
Reevaluated as a supplysource in anticipation for
*BA mines (Mitsubishi Corporation ,
etc)
*Revboe mine (Nippon Steel Corporation, others )
the Panama anal
expansion
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Achieving low carbon societies with technical transfers for overseas coal fired power generationAchieving low carbon societies with technical transfers for overseas coal fired power generation
Coal fired power generation technologies in Japan is the most efficient in the world andproper operation and maintenance keeps high efficiency.
Maintenance and improvement of Efficiency for existingthermal power plantsChanges in the efficiency of coal fired power generation
by country(LHV)Thermal efficiency(%, HHV)
CoalCoal--fired Plants(Site A)fired Plants(Site A)DesignedEfficiency
DesignedEfficiency
CoalCoal--fired Plants(Site B)fired Plants(Site B)
EfficiencyDegradation
0 10 20 30 40Years since Commissioning
Source: Energy balances of OECD/Non-OECD countries-2011
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It will be critical to continue R&D for technologies to realize more efficient coal fired power generation
Outlook of high efficient of coal-fired power generation in JapanOutlook of high efficient of coal-fired power generation in Japan
(Roadmap for efficiency improvement of coal fired power generation)
including IGCC, IGFC and A-USC.
IntegratedGasificationFuel Cell (IGFC)
y
Integrated GasificationCombined Cycle (IGCC)
1700C-classG l
e f f i c i e n
Ultra Super
Critical Pressure Coal- t t h e r m
H V
) % 1500C-class
GT
750C-classFired ThermalPower (USC)
A vance U tra SuperCritical Pressure Coal-Fired ThermalPower (A-USC)
N ( H
600C-classGT
700C-classGT
GT
Source: Created based on the Action Plan for Achieving a Low-carbonSociety and Cool Earth-Innovative Energy Technology Program 16
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Comparison of CO2 emissions of each fuel in power generationComparison of CO2 emissions of each fuel in power generation
em ss ons per erma un are approx ma e y oa : pe ro eum : = : : Coal fired power has approximately twice as much CO2 emissions per kWh compared to LNG power. Since coal has more CO2 emissions per unit compared to other fossil fuel, clean utilization is
re uired.
-CO2 emission/kwh in power generating fuelCO Emission er Thermal Unit
Coal fired power (average)
Oil firedpower avera e
LNG power (average)
LNG power (combined
Source: Based on the development targets by the Central Research Institute ofElectric Power Industry (2009) and various research businesses
on Climate Change
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Coal fired power generation in Japan is the most efficient in the world and proper operation and
CO2 emission reduction overseas (International deployment of SC/USC coal fired power generation)CO2 emission reduction overseas (International deployment of SC/USC coal fired power generation)
maintenance keeps high efficiency. It is estimated that the adoption of Japanese advanced technologies by all of the existing coal firedpower plants in the US, China and India would realize CO2 reductions of 1.3 billion tons.
We will promote overseas deployment of Japans high efficiency coal fired power generation and aimto maintain technical competitiveness through the technical transfer of the high efficiency coal fired
power generation according to the industrial structure of each country and system exports along.
Coal-fired Thermal Power CO2 Emissions and Reductions Estimates
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009,Ecofys International Comparison of Fossil Power Efficiency and CO2 Intensity 2010 18
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1. Development/introduction of gasification/slurry of low rank coal
Effective utilization of low rank coalEffective utilization of low rank coal
eve opmen o gas ca on s urry ec no og es accor ng o e energy eman s ruc ure o coaproducing countries
(2) Methane/DME, etc. made from gasification of low rank coal can contribute to supplying clean energy toJa an in the future
2. Development/introduction of upgrading technologies for low rank coal in order to efficiently utilizeunused resources
(1) Development of upgrading technologies, such as dehydrating/drying technologies, in order to improve
Coalproducing
countryMajor consumer
ranspor a on com us on e c ency
generate
power
Minemousepower
generation
Generating efficiencyimprovement throughhigh-efficiency drying
system
Exporting while
CO2recovery
and storage
Low rankcoal
Gasification
meeting domesticdemands
Liquid fuelproduction
Methanol,DME, FT
synthetic oil,etc.
s
CO2recovery/storage
Ash
SNGproduction
Liquefactionusing existing
facilities
Using the existing LNG transportationinfrastructure 19
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SummarySummary
.
Promotion of coal utilization technologiesSecurity of stable supply of coal resource
Security of stable supply of coal resource thatcontributes to stabilization of energy
Development promotion and overseasdeployment of clean coal technologies
maintenance of industrial competitiveness. Acquisition of interests Enhancement of relationships with coal
Efficiency improvement, CO2 reduction,utilization of low rank coal, etc. Contribution to CO2 reduction overseas
Policy tools
Moderation of coal demand/supply through
utilization of low rank coal through overseas deployment of clean coaltechnologies
Coal
Gasificationfurnace
Gas turbine
Exhaust heatrecovery boiler
Exhaust gas
Policy dialogues between governmentsUtilization of budget, investment/liabilityassurance, ODA, yen loan, JBIC, and NEXI
Steam turbine
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Thank our for our attention.
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Reference of P.5 (Three Scenarios for 2030)
ff
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Reduce the share of nuclear energy to 0% at the earliest possible time before 2030 and adopt the nuclear fuel cycle policy of direct
Reference 0% ScenarioReference 0% Scenario
.
Convert the energy structure to one consisting of renewable energy and fossil fuels in the end.Impose strict regulations, including restrictions on/prohibition of sales of products with poor energy conservation performance, in
broad fields, and implement a considerably drastic shift of energy sources to renewable energy, energy conservation and gas, even
2010 2030 Specifics in 2030
,level comparable to other scenarios.
Approx. 10% reduction100 million kWh
10,000
12,000 Thermal power
Renewableenergy
Nuclear po wer
26% 0% 0% (-25%) Nuclear power
1.1 trillionkWh 1 trillion
kWh
Before additional
measuresAfter additional
measures
6,000
8,000
10% 30% 35% (+25%)Renewable
energy
Thermal power
65%63% 70%
0
2,000
4,000(dependence onfossil fuels) (current level)
Share of non-fossil energy
35%
10%
26% 30%
resources
-0.3% -16% -23%Greenhouse gas
emissions
0% scenario2010
+ Further energy conservation efforts andCO2 reduction measures
Final ener consum tion 310 million kl 300 million kl
Amount ofimport of fossilfuels
17 trillion 17 trillion 16 trillion+ Shift to natural gas(Ratio of natural gas/coal in thermal power generation: 1.3 1.8)
(Reference ) -30%Prospect for 2030 in the current Strategic Energy Plan ofJapan. Including only energy-related CO2 emissions
Amount of energy conserved 72 million kl 85 million kl
23SOURCE: Options for Energy and the Environment [Outline](The Energy and Environment Council Decision on June 29, 2012) July 2012 National Policy Unit
R f 15% S iR f 15% S i
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Reference 15% ScenarioReference 15% Scenario
Steadily reduce dependence on nuclear energy to around 15% in 2030 and smoothly realize reduction ofdependence on fossil fuels and CO2 emission reductionReprocessing and/or direct disposal are possible in relation to the nuclear fuel cycle policy.
, ,various environmental changes, including those in the energy situation, in the international situation concerningthe global environment, and in technological innovation
26% 15% (-10%) Nuclear power 2010 2030
Approx. 10% reduction
compared to 2010
100 million kWh
10% 30% (+20%)Renewable
energy10,000
12,000 Thermal
power Renewableenergy
Nuclear
1.1 trillion
kWh 1 trillion kWh
Thermal power
-
Share of non-
fossil energy 37% 45% +10%6,000
8,000 power
55%63%epen ence on oss
fuels)
Greenhouse gasemissions -0.3% -23%
0
2,000
,
30%10%
26%15%
(Reference) -30%
Amount ofimport of fossil
fuels 17 trillion 16 trillion
15% scenario2010
current Strategic Energy Planof Japan.Including only energy-relatedCO2 emissions.
24SOURCE: Options for Energy and the Environment [Outline](The Energy and Environment Council Decision on June 29, 2012) July 2012 National Policy Unit
R f 20 25% S iR f 20 25% S i
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Reference 20-25% ScenarioReference 20-25% Scenario
Keep a certain level of dependence on nuclear energy while slowly reducing it and achieve a share of nuclear energy in2030 around 20-25%. Construction of new nuclear power plants and replace of existing plants are required.Reprocessing and/or direct disposal are possible in relation to the nuclear fuel cycle policy.
Specifics in 2030
.Strong public confidence in nuclear energy and administration thereof is the premise.
12,000 Thermal ower
26% 20% (-5%)to 25% (-1%)
Nuclear power
2010 2030
1.1 trillion
.compared to 2010
100 million kWh
8,000
10,000Renewable en ergy
Nuclear power 10% 30% (+20%)to 25% (+15%)Renewableenergy
1 trillion kWh
50%50%
4,000
6,00063% 50% (-15%)
Share of non- 10% 30% 25%
Thermal power(dependence on fossil
fuels)
0
2,000 +15%oss energyresources
-0.3% - 25%Greenhouse gasemissions
25%
20-25% scenario2010
26% 20%
Amount ofimport of fossil
fuels 17 trillion 15 trillion
e erence) -Prospect for 2030 in the current StrategicEnergy Plan of Japan.
Including only energy-related CO2 emissions.
25SOURCE: Options for Energy and the Environment [Outline](The Energy and Environment Council Decision on June 29, 2012) July 2012 National Policy Unit
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