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Mikiko Kainuma,Fellow,CenterforSocialand
EnvironmentalSystemsResearch,NIES/SeniorResearchAdvisor,IGES
11 March 2015IIASA
Review of modelling approaches
The world in 2050 Interactive Science Meeting (TWI2050)
- AIM Model -
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Funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES
http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html
GHG
emissions per capita
High CarbonLocked in Society
Low Carbon Locked in Society
Development of Asia LCS Scenarios
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
Low Carbon SocietyBackcasting
Leapfrog‐Development
High Carbon Locked‐in type Development
Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco‐ System
Time
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
2
Can Asia Change the World through Leapfrogging?
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Elements considered in scenarios and/or roadmapsEnergy Production,
Energy Service Supply 社会インフラ
Human Capital Domestic Institutions
Social Capital, Tradition, rule
Trades
International Policy
Country International
Other Environmental ProblemsSocial Infrastructure
Problems in AsiaEconomic Development, Energy,
Poverty, Environment, etc.
Realization of Low Carbon Society with high quality of live
Making roadmaps toward LCS by backcasting
•Development of qualitative scenarios •Development of actions and roadmaps •Capacity building•Analysis of Asian perspectives
Challenges toward low-carbon societies in Asia
Low Carbon Asia
Research Topics
PresentSituation International
challenges
Future
Examples of issues to be tackled:Economic Leap-frogging development to LCSEnergy: competition of biomass energy and food productionMaterial: Social infrastructure and low materializationLifestyle: Tradition, Diversity in AsiaInstitution: Barriers and policy plans to remove barriersTransportation: Low carbon transportation
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Top-down models
Environmentwater, air, land, ...
Environmental damageMaintenance
OutputsEnvironmental indicators, economic development, ...
EconomyProductionConsumptionInvestment Market
Price
Bottom-up models
Issues• Land use• Crop productivity• Municipal solid waste• Water demand• Water availability• Risk of water shortage
• Access to safe water• Risk of hunger• Diarrhea incidence• Air pollutant emission• Urban air quality• Energy system
Environmental serviceFeedback from ecosystem
to socio-economy
Issues
AIM/Energy AIM/Agriculture AIM/MaterialAIM/CGE
AIM/Air AIM/Water AIM/Trend
SDBInnovation options Drivers
GDP, population, technologies, ...
Models of the AIM family
(Strategic Data Base)
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2013/05
How to deploy our study to real worldCore research
members
Application and development to actual LCS processes
Development and maintenance of study tools/models
Each country’s domestic/ local research institute
Policy makersCentral/regional
government administrationDevelopment
AgenciesNGOs
Collaboration for LCS scenario development and building roadmaps
Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world
India
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Malaysia
2013/03Cambodia Korea
Japan
China
Vietnam
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS
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Layers of changes needed in structures, institutions, processes and mechanisms for a low carbon society
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6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asiaand comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG emission
s in Asia(Gt C
O2e
q)
Reference T50 T100 T200 T400 2 ℃ 2.5 ℃ 3 ℃
‐100%
‐90%
‐80%
‐70%
‐60%
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG re
ductions ratio in
Asia
(% from
reference)
Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)
Reference 50US$/tCO2 100US$/tCO2 200US$/tCO2 400US$/tCO2
2℃ scenario 2.5 ℃ scenario 3 ℃ scenario
Scenario name 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050Reference 0 0 0 0 0
50 US$/tCO2 3.75 12.5 25 37.5 50100 US$/tCO2 7.5 25 50 75 100200 US$/tCO2 15 50 100 150 200400 US$/tCO2 30 100 200 300 400
Emissions constraints of achieving 2℃‐3℃ were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy‐wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)
45% reductions from the 2005 levels
Output examples
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20452050
SO2em
ission
s in Asia(M
t SO2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NOxem
ission
s in Asia(M
t NOx)
Reference T50 T100 T200 T400 2 ℃ 2.5 ℃ 3 ℃
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BCem
ission
s in Asia(M
t BC)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PMem
ission
s in Asia(M
t PM)
Reference T50 T100 T200 T400 2 ℃ 2.5 ℃ 3 ℃
8
Reference
50US$/tCO2
100US$/tCO2
200US$/tCO2
400US$/tCO2
2℃ scenario
2.5℃ scenario
3℃ scenario
Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)
There are large reduction potentials of air pollutants and SLCPs, due to GHG mitigation actions such as drastic fuel sifts and energy efficiency improvement.(e.g. 60~90% reductions compared to baseline in 2050
Output examplesSLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐
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0100200300400500600700800900
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Popu
latio
n at risk of h
unger
[million]
SSP3
SSP4
SSP2
SSP5SSP1
• 21st‐century risk of hunger strongly differs among different socioeconomic conditions
• Regional distribution depends greatly on population growth, equality in food distribution and increase in food consumption
• Regions with greater population growth face higher risk of hunger.
Risk of hunger in the 21st century
The most pessimistic scenario (SSP3)
Rest of Africa, 39%
India, 23%
Rest of Asia, 16%Middle
East
Southeast Asia
Rest of South America
China BrazilNorth Africa Former
Soviet Union
(Relative to 2005)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
2005 2100
Land
use [M
ha] Food crops
Pasture
Grassland
Managed forest
Primary forest
Hasegawa et al., 20150
5001000150020002500300035004000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Carolie intake [kcal /pe
rson
/day]
Food consumption per capita
Land use change
Population at hunger risk
Output examples
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Thank you for your attention!
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
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