risk communication

Communication, Culture and Risk Perceptions

@MCNisbet

Matthew C. NisbetAssociate ProfessorSchool of CommunicationAmerican University Washington D.C.

Deficit Model Assumptions

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If the public knew more about the technical side of science, then the public would view issues as scientists do, and there would be fewer controversies.

Need to return to a point in the past where science was

respected and citizens were informed.

Emphasis is on improving science literacy through formal education and science media.

1957: Is the Past That Different from Today?Perception is Context Dependent

@MCNisbetNational Science Board (2008). Chapter 7: Public Attitudes about Science and Technology. Science & Engineering Indicators.

2. Networks and Trust Matter

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Social relationships, networks, and

identities

Trust, credibility, alienation relative to

science-related institutions

The uptake and

influence of “expert” science-related

knowledge

Practical reason, localized knowledge

Bryan Wynne

Common Criteria Used to Judge Expert Advice

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1) Does expert knowledge work? Do predictions fail?

2) Do expert claims pay attention to other available knowledge?

3) Are experts open to criticism? Admission of errors, or oversights?

4) What are the social / institutional affiliations of experts? Historical track record of trustworthiness, affiliation with industry?

5) What issues overlap or connect to lay experience?

Models of Science Communication

@MCNisbetBrossard, D., & Lewenstein, B. V. (2009). A Critical Appraisal of Models of Public Understanding of Science: Using Practice to Inform Theory. In L. Kahlor & P. Stout (Eds.), Communicating Science: New Agendas in Communication(pp. 11-39). New York: Routledge.

Examples of Models of Science Communication

@MCNisbetBrossard, D., & Lewenstein, B. V. (2009). A Critical Appraisal of Models of Public Understanding of Science: Using Practice to Inform Theory. In L. Kahlor & P. Stout (Eds.), Communicating Science: New Agendas in Communication(pp. 11-39). New York: Routledge.

The Deficit vs. Public Engagement Model

@MCNisbetGroffman, P. Stylinski, C., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). Restarting the Conversation: Challenges at the Interface of Science and Society. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 8, 284-291.

Models of Science Communication

@MCNisbetBrossard, D., & Lewenstein, B. V. (2009). A Critical Appraisal of Models of Public Understanding of Science: Using Practice to Inform Theory. In L. Kahlor & P. Stout (Eds.), Communicating Science: New Agendas in Communication(pp. 11-39). New York: Routledge.

Viewing the Public In Binary Terms

@MCNisbetSee analysis at the Vote View blog by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, updated from McCarthy, Nolan, Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Boston, MA: MIT Press, 2006.

Elite Cues, Heuristics and a Miserly Public

@MCNisbetSee analysis at the Vote View blog by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, updated from McCarthy, Nolan, Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Boston, MA: MIT Press, 2006.

The Economy and Our Limited Pool of Worry

@MCNisbetNisbet, 2011; Scruggs & Benegal, 2012; Brulle et al, 2012

Climate Change as Cultural Debate:Group, Policy and Technological Context

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Climate changeGun control

AbortionHPV vaccineStem cell research

Nuclear energyNatural gas frackingFood biotechnology

Institutionalization of the mentally illLegality of drugs

Kahan, D. (forthcoming). Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk, in Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics and Social Implications of Risk 725-760 (eds. Hillerbrand, R., Sandin, P., Roeser, S. & Peterson, M.) (Springer London, Limited, 2012).

Climate Change as Cultural Debate:More Information Increases Polarization

@MCNisbetKahan, D. et al. (2012). The Polarizing Impact of Perceived Climate Change Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks. Nature Climate Change.

Climate Change as Cultural Debate:Telling Stories about Wicked Problems

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o The more complex a problem like climate change, the more equally plausible discourses and narratives exist about what should be done.

o Climate change serves as an opportunity for different groups to mobilize on behalf of their values, goals and vision for society.

o By analyzing discourses “we can at least recognize that the sources of our enduring disagreements…lie within us, in our values and in our sense of identity and purpose.”

Scientists & Environmentalists as Cultural Tribe

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Focus on Mitigation at Expense of AdaptationDesign to Win Foundations, 2007-2010 / $368M Distributed Across 1248 Grants

@MCNisbetNisbet, M.C. (2011). Climate Shift: Clear Vision for the Next Decade of Public Debate. Washington, DC: American University, School of Communication.

@MCNisbetLuers, A., Pope, C., Kroodsma, D. (2013). Stanford Social Innovation Review.

Engineers, economists, policy wonks, big budget NGOS, activists committed to “fight the good fight.”

Geographers, sociologists, and ecologists, hazard risk managers,

disaster responders, smaller budget NGOs, who are committed to solving

problems and saving lives.

Hurricanes and Climate ChangeAdvocacy, Uncertainty and Political Clarity

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@MCNisbetLuers, A., Pope, C., Kroodsma, D. (2013). Stanford Social Innovation Review.

The Public as Distinct Interpretative Communities

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The Public as Distinct Interpretative Communities

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Kahneman, D. (2003) In T. Frängsmyr (Ed.), Les Prix Nobel: The Nobel Prizes 2002 (pp. 449-489). Stockholm, Sweden: Nobel Foundation.

3. Judgments and Decisions Are Context Dependent

Kahneman, D. (2003) In T. Frängsmyr (Ed.), Les Prix Nobel: The Nobel Prizes 2002 (pp. 449-489). Stockholm, Sweden: Nobel Foundation.

3. Judgments and Decisions Are Context Dependent

Morality Binds, Divides and Blinds Us to Threats

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“A basic principle of moral psychology is that ‘morality binds and blinds.’ In many pre-agricultural societies, groups achieved trust and unity by circling around sacred objects. In modern societies, much larger groups bind themselves together by treating certain books, flags, leaders or ideals as sacred and by symbolically circling around them. But if your team circles too fast, you lose the ability to see clearly or think for yourself. You go blind to evidence that contradicts your group’s moral consensus, and you become enraged at teammates who suggest that the other side is not entirely bad.” – New York Times, Nov. 7, 2012

Energy Resilience in an Era of Abrupt Climate Change?

@MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.

Stage 1: In-Depth Interviews w/ 70 Subjects from Six Distinct Audience Segments (Summer 2009)Maibach, E., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). BMC Public Health 10: 299.

Segments 4-6:Sentence Specific Reaction To Public Health Essay

O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 B1 B2 B3 B4 C1 C2-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

DISENGAGED DOUBTFUL

DISMISSIVE POPULATION

Scores reflect respondent average values by segment for the difference between the number of times each of 18 sentences were marked “especially clear or helpful” and “especially confusing or unhelpful.”

Myers, T., Nisbet, M.C., Maibach, E.W., & Leiserowitz, A. (2012). A Public Health Frame Arouses Hopeful Emotions about Climate Change. Climatic Change Research Letters, 1105-1121.

Stage 2: Testing Environmental, National Security Frames vs. Public Health Frame

Voices from Coastal CommunitiesFatalism and Low Efficacy

@MCNisbetMoser, S. C. (in press). In: Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Science and Practice in a Rapidly Changing World, ed. S.C. Moser and M.T. Boykoff, Routledge, London.

Community Dialogue After Hurricane IsabelAnne Arundel County, Maryland

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Community Dialogue and PolarizationGMU, USNA, Dewberry

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Timeline of Actions 2003 Hurricane Isabel floods Annapolis, coastal communities 2007 Gov. O’Malley creates MD Commission on Climate Change Science Working Group uses 2007 IPCC models to estimate sea-level rise

projections for state from 2.7 ft to 3.4 ft by 2100. Recommend planners anticipate 1ft rise by 2050 and 2ft rise by 2100. Anne Arundel County and Annapolis begin their own evaluation process.

Project Focus• County mail survey, N = 300• Deliberative forums, 2 moderators at each table, N = 40• Risk projection web site

CASI Final Project Report (2013).

Cultural Identity Explains Substantial Proportionof Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences

@MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).

“Local policy discourses on sea-level rise are not emerging into a neutral arena, but one in which cultural meanings have already begun to form. In this environment, traditional communication strategies of providing ‘objective’ assessments are unlikely to staunch further issue polarization, as has been case in Virginia and North Carolina.”

Brokering Shared Identity and OutlookLocalized Dialogue Softens Cultural Cognition

@MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).

http://www.futurecoast.info/

Experts and Coastal Property OwnersFrom Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue

@MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.

Experts and Coastal Property OwnersFrom Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue

@MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.

Research Informs Design of Communication

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Creating Shared Understanding & Consolidating ViewsRecommendations

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Recommendations Feature adaptive strategies – effective and failed – in engagement efforts. Property owners prefer to hear about experiences of neighbors more so than advice

from scientific experts. Host local meetings with property owners, experts, and officials to discuss changes,

impacts, and risks that they are experiencing. Participants believed that simply coming together was productive in its own right. Identify and highlight “early adopters,” local property owners who have already started

to engage in adaptive behaviors.

“What is required is creating conditions for helping communities make meaning out of the science and its findings for themselves and their local conditions in ways that support their including that science into their regular decision-making…Good models that put scientists, communicators, and publics into dialogue about what they know, what it means, and how to put it to work suggest using group processes and visible thinking routines for creating and sustaining dialogues about climate change.”