rohit talwar ceo fast future rohit@fastfuture kellen euroconference brussels april 29 th 2009

Rohit TalwarCEO

Fast Futurerohit@fastfuture.com

Kellen Euroconference

Brussels

April 29th 2009

How to Design Your Association’s Future

Key Trends, Challenges and Choices

Objectives

• Understand the key patterns and drivers of

change

• Examine how to win in a downturn

• Provide ideas for mapping your preferred

future

• Mobilising the stakeholders

Program Concept and Objectives

• Fast Track research program

• Provide practical insights and tools to help members:

– Prepare for the future

– Develop future strategy, and

– Drive innovations to help associations stay relevant to the changing needs and expectations of their members.

• Scanning at the core

1. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

445 665

769

5266

4034

731

965

339

572

Source : United Nations2008 2050

2. Economic Power ShiftsThe Top 20 in 2025?

Purchasing Power Parity Models help create fair pricing in each country

The Middle East – Against the Wind?

US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025

170 million Tourists by 2020

Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012

Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025

1130 new aircraft by 2030

King Abdullah Economic City – US$120Bn

3. Politics gets Complex

4. Expanding Business Agenda

5. Science and Technology go Mainstream

6. Generational Crossroads

7. Rethinking Talent, Education and Training

• Online, on-demand delivery

• Accelerated learning

9. Global Internet Expansion

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

9. A Society in Transition

Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com

10. Natural Resource Challenges

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm

“Companies that are not adequately managing the consequences of climate change on their business will not be welcomed as our customers in the future”

Rick MurrayChief Claims Strategist

Swiss Rehttp://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg

Winning in a Downturn

• Sticky and

Magnetic

• Thought

Leadership

• Innovation

What Future are we Creating?

• Big Picture Insights

• Core Customers/ Segments

• Conversations that Energise

• Key Choices

Lead or Follow?

Running on Empty

Rethinking Talent, Education and Training

• Networks

• Secondments

• Collaborative

E-learning

• Accelerated

Learning

• Volunteering

All in it Together

Creating Evangelists – Are you Sticky and Magnetic?

Thought LeadershipServing the Value Chain

Challenge 1 - Know Thyself

Purpose, Strategic Direction

and Vision

Core Products

and Service Offerings

Delivery Model

OrganizationModel

Current ContextFuture Landscape

PurposeMembers

Serving other StakeholdersGlobal Ambitions

CultureVision and Direction

Purpose, Strategic Direction and Vision

Core Products and ServicesGlobal OfferingsRepresentation

Sharing Foresight and Best PracticeCommunity and NetworkingLearning and Development

One Stop ShopMarkets of 1Life Solutions

Core Products and Service Offerings

ChannelsTechnology

Social NetworksResponsibility

Business Model

Delivery Model

ResilienceResponsiveness and Agility

SustainabilityTalent

PartnershipsMeasurementLegal Structure

OrganizationGovernance, Effective Boards and

Volunteer Leadership

Organization Model

Challenge 2

What’s our Leadership Paradigm?

Envisioning Tomorrow’s Organization

• Purpose - what are we her for?

• Markets - who should we serve?

Love is in the Air

Road to Nowhere

Suspicious Minds

Dancing in the Dark

GDP Growth India and China

8-10%

6-7%

3-4%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

Challenge 3 - Prepare for Alternative Scenarios

What does the timeline of developments look like for your

key markets?

Challenge 5 -Innovating New Solutions

• Low cost innovation approaches

• Industry changing ideas

Challenge 6 – Challenge 6 – Exploring Emerging EmpiresExploring Emerging Empires

• Nationalisation Nationalisation opportunitiesopportunities

• Conventions Conventions market market

Going International – Key Assumptions

Why - We know why we are doing this

Who - We are clear on who’s leading it

What - We have a view on what value we can add and who we want to serve

When - This is a long-term commitment

China India USA UK Japan S. Korea Taiwan

Population 1,313,973,713 1,095,351,995 300,000,000 60,609,153 127,463,611 48,846,823 23,036,087

Soft Drink - litres per capita

25 3 240 222 150 90 90

Food consumption per capita

3000 calories 2100-2400 calories

3800 calories 3700 calories 2898 calories 3303 calories 3000 calories

Food consumption % of p c income

26% 55% 9.9% 16% 15% 28% 26%

Total no. of Internet Users

137 million 40 million 210 million 37.6 million 86.3 million 33.9 million 13.21 million

No. of Internet Users (per 100k)

10,462 3651 70,000 62,046 67,739 69,467 57,434

Total no. of cell phones

450 million 140 million 219 million 61.091 million 94.75 million 38.342 million 22.17 million

No. of cell phones

(per 100k)

34,246 12,781 70,000 100,810 74, 372 78,569 96,391

Total no. of colour TV's

460 Million 105 million 290 million 40 million 107 million 23 million 10 million

No. of colour TV's. (per 100k)

35,000 9586 96,666 66,006 84260 47,660 43900

Total no. of cars. 30 million 10 million 240 million 33 million 70 million 15 million 18 million

No. of cars.

(per 100k)

2283 912 80,000 54,455 54,945 30,737 78,260

There is considerable growth potential in emerging economies

Challenge 7 - Explore New Business Models

Challenge 8Embedding Environmental Scanning,

Scenario Planning and What-if Thinking.

• Engaging members in scanning

• Leveraging the insights

Choosing the Scale of Change

Know Your Starting Point

• Future insights

• Capability / Limitations

• Membership Needs

• Unmet opportunity

• Risks / threats

• How decisions get made

• Tolerance of uncertainty

Developing a Future Roadmap

• Environmental scanning

• Trend analysis

• Scenario workshop

• Identify the ‘vital few’

• Create action teams or Strategic Task Force

• Conduct strategic review

• Identify gaps and opportunities

Working with the Trends and Patterns of Change

• Pick specific trends / patterns to focus on

• Test against current activity and future plans

• How could member needs be affected?

• What could the direct impact be – strategy and functions

• Scale, timescale, warning signs

• Possible responses

Create Tolerance of Uncertainty

Building Board Ownership and Engaging Stakeholders

Staying the Journey

• Clarity

• What does ‘do nothing’ cost you

• Embed the thinking

• Innovation architecture

• Tolerance of uncertainty

• Tap the network

MOHANDAS KARAMCHAND GANDHI 1869 - 1948

“First they ignore you.

Then they laugh at you.

Then you win.”

• Direction and Purpose

• Trends and Challenges

• Foresight Culture

• Organize for Innovation

• ‘Call to Action’

ConclusionsDesigning the Future