say buh bye to status quo or why we need to build resilience
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1
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d
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converging crises
the end of economic growth
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the end of economic growth
converging crises
an age of extreme energy
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a climate in !ux
converging crises
an age of extreme energy
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reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
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reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
1,350
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11
reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
1,350
6,000
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11
reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
1,350
6,000
42
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11
reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
1,350
6,000
42 42
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11
reindeer on St. Matthew
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
0 29
1,350
6,000
42 42 0
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
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0 billion
1 billion
2 billion
3 billion
4 billion
5 billion
6 billion
7 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
humans on Earth
source: wikipedia
2010: my son born
1972: I was born
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0 billion
1 billion
2 billion
3 billion
4 billion
5 billion
6 billion
7 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
humans on Earth
source: wikipedia
1% of 1,000 = 10
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0 billion
1 billion
2 billion
3 billion
4 billion
5 billion
6 billion
7 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
humans on Earth
source: wikipedia
1% of 1,000 = 10
1% of 1 billion = 10 million
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a GROWING problemreal GDP damming of rivers water use fertilizer consumption
paper consumption motor vehicles telephones atmospheric CO2
ozone depletion natural climate disasters biodiversity loss
sour
ce: I
GBP
, Ste
ffen
et a
l 200
4
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how many planets do we need?
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
1.6 earths
source: Global Footprint Network
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copyright Sebastião Salgado
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oil
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oilcoal
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oil
natural gas
coal
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US energy consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
1705 1755 1805 1855 1905 1955 2005
Biomass (Wood) Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Hydro Nuclear
quad
rilli
on B
TU
source: US Energy Information Agency
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d
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a climate in !ux
converging crises
the age of extreme energy
the end of economic growth
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winning the energy lottery
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M. King Hubbert
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Hubbert’s peak
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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
oil productiondiscoveries (lower 48)
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000disc
over
ies (
mill
ion
barr
els)
production (million barrels)
US oil discoveries & production
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0
100
200
300
400
1850-1900 1910s 1930s 1950s 1970s 1990s
recoverable reserves number of #elds discovered
rese
rves
, in
giga
barr
els
world oil discoveries
43
66
68
71
73
75
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
global crude oil productionm
illio
n ba
rrel
s/da
y
44
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the oil price trap
Oil price needed for
developmentof new oil
production capacity:
$70
Minimum oil price likely to trigger economic recession:
$100
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recessions
1970 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 20101990 2005
oil prices
$0
$30
$60
$90
$120
$150
oil prices & recessionsU
SD/b
arre
l
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good riddance, right?
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SEARCHING FOR
A MIRACLE
[ T H E C O N S E R V A T I O N I M P E R A T I V E ]
by Richard Heinberg
F o r e w o r d b y J e r r y M a n d e r
AJointProjecto
ftheInternatio
nalForum
on Globalizat
ionandthePos
tCarbonInstitu
te.
[FalseSolutionSe
ries#4]Septemb
er2009
!!
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
- scalability
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evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
- scalability
- location of resource
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the tough reality
ere is no credible scenario
in which alternative energy sources can make up for fossil fuels
once declines begin.
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PCI Fellows
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key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
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key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
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key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
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key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
- we must prepare for business unusual
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key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
- we must prepare for business unusual
- we must build resilience
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resilience
the ability to absorb shocks and continue to function
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managing the transition
not a question of ifbut a question of how
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great transitions#re language
agricultureindustrialism
now
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crisis = opportunity
is is the biggest opportunityof our lifetimes.
Who will seize it?
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