scientific and technical advances in early warning systems

1 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Scientific and technical advances in early

warning systems for seismological hazard S. Parolai

Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

2 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Approaches There are two main approaches: Regional (or network-based) EEW systems and

Onsite (or single-station) EEW systems.

from

Satriano et al., SDEE, 2011

3 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

EEW and rapid risk assessment

Decades Years Days to minutes 0 seconds Minutes to hours

Long Term Seismic

and landslides Risk

mapping

Long Term

Forecasting

Short Term

Forecasting

Earthquake and

landslides Early

Warning

Real time and rapid

loss estimation

Aftershock

Forecasting

Causative fault

Seismic Source

Spectrum

Propagation

Local Geology Effects

Vulnerability

Ea

rth

qu

ak

e

4 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Improving the tools for tackling the challenges of aftershocks and local site

response while including uncertainties.

Hoshiba and Aoki (2015):

Pilz and Parolai (2016)

Emerging questions

aftershocks Local site response

5 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Event estimated, compatible

scenario selected, warning Damage probability of exceedance

Lead Time: 17 sec

Lead Time: 14 sec

EMS-98 damage states

Exc.

pro

bab

ility

Damage probability geocell 58

1e-

05

1

2

3 4 5 6

1e-

03

1

e-0

1

EMS-98 damage states

Exc.

pro

bab

ility

Damage probability geocell 5754

1e-

05

1 2 3 4 5 6

1e-

03

1

e-0

1

Loss based Early Warning: pre-calculated scenarios

No Magnitude and Location estimation

Emerging questions

6 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL

Real-time building shaking

forecasting

from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL Megalooikonomou et al. 2018.

Real-time damage forecasting

7 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL

from Pianese et al, 2018

Real-time impact forecast forecasting Expert Crowd sourcing

8 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Toward Multi hazard approaches

Causative fault

Seismic Source

Spectrum

Propagation

Local Geology Effects

Vulnerability

Nurmagambetov (1999)

Source: Havenith & Bourdeau, 2010

(Source: Crozier, 2013).

(Source Saponaro, 2017).

Image from

http://nirutkonkong1982.spaces.live.com/)

Landslides

Ground failure and liquefaction

Tsunami

9 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Toward Multi hazard approaches:

not only cascading effects

Earthquakes Floods

But the same is valid for

storms…..

Grünthal et al., 1998

10 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

New Technologies

Multi Parameter and low

cost systems Cell

phones:

e.g.

MyShake

Credit: iStock.com/tiero

Image taken from myShake web page

Juhel et al., 2018

New generation of gravity

strain meters Optical Fibers

11 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Conclusions

Earthquake early warning systems are still developing to better

respond to the challenges identified in the last 10 -15 years of

testing/application

A combination of EW with rapid impact assessment systems is

ongoing and should consider the multi-hazard implication of

seismic events

The new technological development might provide better solution

for monitoring and detection but we should be ready to tackle the

issue of a better real time data integration, harmonization,

analysis

12 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Thank You!

13 Istituto Nazionale

di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale