searching our collective consciousness a google trends activity for introductory students eric...

Searching Our Collective ConsciousnessA Google Trends Activity for

Introductory Students

Eric NordmoeDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science

How do we engage our students in statistical thinking?

Classroom activities should be…

• Real• Engaging• Conceptual• Thought-provoking• Purposeful

Typical classroom activities

• Hands-on activities– Gelman & Nolan, 2002

• Real-world data sets– Dawson, JSE95; Hayden, JSE05; Hand, 1994

• Simulation-based learning– DelMas & Garfield, JSE99

A brief history of Google Trends

Google Insights for Search

Google Trends

GoogleFlu Trends

May 06: Plot popularity of search terms

Aug 08: In-depth analysis by category and geography

Nov 08: Produce early-warningestimates of flu activity (Ginsberg et al., Nature2008)

Back

Back

The Google Insights for Search interface

Query “index” scaled against maximum in Feb 2008

Search parameters

Emphasizes context

Downloadable data file

The Google Trends Activity

• Analysis of a simplified flu trends data set – Weekly data Jan 04-May 08– 230 cases, 6 variables

Estimated % of outpatient

visits showing flu-like symptoms

fever

“cold symptoms”

“flu symptoms”

query #4

Responsevariable

Explanatory queryvariables

The Google Trends Activity:

The Variables

The Google Trends Activity:Overview

Background

Univariate description

Bivariate description

Reflection & extensions

Time-based description

The Google Trends Activity:

A Quick Look

r =.94 r =.87

r =.61 r =.76

Learning Outcomes

• Mastery of tools for data description

• Sensitivity to unique characteristics of time series data

• Development of critical, statistical thinking skills

• Opportunities to formulate hypotheses

Suggestions for Classroom Use

• Introductory Statistics• 1-2 class sessions• Integrates univariate and bivariate learning

• Requires stats software

Cautions

• No random sampling model• Serial correlation• Index (scaled) data

Extensions

• Transformations– logit

• Hypothesis testing– Between geographic subregions, years, etc.

• Regression models– Interpretation, assumptions and diagnostics

• Time series analysis– Significance testing– Seasonality

Questions?

Google Trends Activity Links

• Google Trends Activity– Word .doc file http://tinyurl.com/nk2uo2

• Downloadable data files– Excel .xls file http://tinyurl.com/ly3s8c– SPSS .sav file http://tinyurl.com/mbdpw2

Contact Information

Eric D. Nordmoe

Kalamazoo College

Tel: 269-337-7066

E-mail: enordmoe@kzoo.edu