set of recommendations do we understand what happened in 2007, 2005, 1997 etc….?

Set of Recommendations

Do we understand what happened in 2007, 2005, 1997 etc….?

Do we understand why predictions are not reproducing the interrannual variability ?

Are predictions more reliable as far as long term trend is concerned ?

Can we pretend we are now able to predict what will happen in summer 2008 ?

UCAR 2007, Steve Deyo

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Série1

106 km2

1979 2007

Arctic sea-ice summer minimum extent

1990 2000

TARASept 2006

NP 34 2005

Vagabond

TARA

FRAM

Four-day sea-ice drifts from April 30 until May 3, 2002 deduced from Quickscat

(R. Ezraty and J-F. Piollé, user manual ref C2-MUT-W-06-IF, April 2003)

Time series of arctic perennial sea-ice from ERS and Quickscat scatterometer.

Backscatter maps and intercomparison with passive microwave data

Quickscat

ERS

SSM/I

Year

2002

Four days Sea-ice drift (April 30-May 3, 2002)

Sea ice thickness variations

(Rothrock et al. ,1999)

Ice thickness changes

Tfreez - 1.7C

Ron KWOK GRL. Vol 34, 2007

96-9705-06

06-0704-05

9 Sv

3 Sv

RAC

JMC

NAC

La Hague

Sellafield

NCC

I129

BARENTSSEA

MAIA

EGCNIC

Profils verticaux de température et de salinité observés d’avril à juin 2002 (April-June) entre 89°N et 87°N