setting the stage. office hours when – today- 11-2 – wednesday 10-2 doyle 226b
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Setting the Stage
Office Hours
• When– Today- 11-2– Wednesday 10-2
• Doyle 226B
Learning Outcomes
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
THE HOUSE ELECTIONS
The Results
• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP
Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”
Democratic seats
THE SENATE
The Results
• No Decapitation of Reid
• No Biden Seat
• The Democrats Hold
Tea Party Candidates in the Senate
A Mixed Bag• Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI
• Losers-, DE, CO, NV
STRUCTURE, TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP
Why the GOP Won
Structural Factors
• Timing
• Availability
Turnout
• Very Similar to 2006
• A Smaller Electorate than 2008
Low Motivation from The Left
• Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory
• Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue
• Card Check
• Don’t Ask Don’t Tell
• Public Option
• A Larger Stimulus Bill
• Immigration Reform
• Bringing the Troops Home
Who Voted
• GOP was more energized
• More conservative
• Older
• Whiter
Race and Age
Gender and Region
Partisanship and Ideology
The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years
The Nomination
The First Step
Starting the Process
• You have to decide as many as 8 or 12 years in advance
• You have to begin your exploratory campaign 2-3 years before the general election
• The Reluctant do not win
You have to wait for your window
• You do not want to run against a popular president
• 1984, 1996
The Nomination Window: Not Your Turn
• You may not want to run against an 8 year Vice-President
• 1960, 1988, 2000
The Nomination Window: Spoiler
• You do not want to run against your party’s incumbent
• 1976, 1980
The Nomination Window: National Factors
• You Want National Trends to be in your favor
• 1964, 1952, 2008
The Nomination Window: Keeping your day job
• It is difficult to run for two offices at once
• You might go 0-2
A Candidate Who Says they aren’t running, just might..
2008 Was open for Both parties
The 2012 Window
• Obama’s 2008 victory meant the Democrats had to wait until 2016.
• For Republicans 2012
was wide open
The 2016 is likely to be wide-open for both parties again
CANDIDATES MATTERYou Cannot Beat Someone with No One
Not all offices are created Equal
Presidents and Vice-Presidents
• Presidents have the best chance at nomination
• V-P’s are the default candidates
• In 2012 The GOP had Neither
U.S. Senators• Advantages
• Disadvantages
Before Obama, Harding and Kennedy only senators to go straight to the White House
Governors
• Advantages
• Disadvantages
House Members
• Who?
• Victims of the Permanent Campaign
Other Offices
• No Chance Anymore
• Provide a little fun
The Class of 2010
• The 2010 class wanted to wait
• Still to new to office
When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus
Lose< Not Run< Win
The GOP Field in 2012
Presidential Jobs• Governors
– Perry– Romney– Huntsman
• Senators– Santorum
Non-Presidential Jobs• House Members
– Gingrich– Bachmann– Paul
• Other– Herman Cain
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