shipperless & unregistered workgroup wednesday 5 th december 2012
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Shipperless & Unregistered Workgroup
Wednesday 5th December 2012
Agenda Introduction
MPRN Creation Workgroup Modification update MPRN Creation Process change ~ Update MPRN’s set to DEad in error
Previous actions
Statistical Information Overall industry volumes ‘Churn’ figures & age profiles
Population cleansing – ‘Strawman’ update
End-User letter update
S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities
A.O.B.
MPRN creation Workgroup
Modification update (C.Warner)
MPRN Creation Process change Proposal update (D.Mitchell) Consultation questions
MPRN’s set to DEad in error
A.O.B.
Agenda
Work to scope/design ongoing since June’12
Consultation document published 28th November Via the Energy Networks Association
Also distributed via key industry bodies; Joint Office Local Authorities
Your views are essential – Opportunity to comment
MPRN Creation proposal
MPRN Creation proposal
MPRN Creation proposal
Q1. What kind of impact do you think that this process change will have on speculative connections? (Speculative connections may include phased sites & units where the final usage is not known; in some cases gas supplies are installed but never used)
Q2. What are the anticipated Supplier time scales from first contact with the end user until a supply contract is in place?
Q3. Should ‘Assisted Connections’ be included in this process? Or are they considered out of scope due to the large number of ‘Assisted Connections’ requested by Local Authorities?
MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions
Q4. How will this revised process affect the customer experience?
Q5. Will this process affect shipper processes and systems? If so what are your expected timescales required to amended yoursystems?
Q6. Does the amended process have any impact on the systems and Resources of Xoserve?
MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions
Q7. Does this process cause any potential competition issues for any party effected by this proposal? If so how can they be addressed?
Q8. Does this change target the root cause of the problem or should additional measures (i.e. MAM obligations) be considered to ensure that a supply contract is in place before a meter is installed?
Q9. What implementation timescales do you expect will be required should this change be approved?
MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions
Previously raised due to impacts on Shipper processes Creation/Confirmation of new MPR Updating records Interface with EndUser / MAMs etc.
Xoserve only set to DEad at Shipper request (ISO contact)
Samples provided to DN’s for analysis Low volumes Updates to be shared with Workgroup
MPRN’s set to DEad in error
High level Isolation process
Xoserve Receive ISO Query
Xoserve Validate ISO Query
Xoserve Send for Site Visit and await response.
Xoserve receive Site Visit results
back from Network.
Is there a request to set to
DE?
Xoserve analyse and interpret
data.
Xoserve Amend status of MPRN:
to LI.
Have Network
confirmed that the
Service is DE?
Xoserve update Query
Management System and
send resolution to Shipper.
Xoserve analyse and interpret
data.
Xoserve update Query
Management System and
send resolution to Shipper.
Xoserve update Query
Management System and
send resolution to Shipper.
No Status Amendment
Required
Xoserve Amend status of MPRN:
to DE.
Is there a request to set to
LI?
Yes
No
No
No
No Status Amendment
Required
Yes
Yes
Xoserve update Query
Management System and
send resolution to Shipper.
Previous actions
Ref. Description Action Status
127 All Distribution Network representatives to discuss possible future Xoserve end user letter exercises.
All DNs C/fwd
129 SGN to engage UIPs and other DNs by mid August in order to review the MPRN Creation Process proposal, and then to present the final proposal at September’s Workgroup meeting.
SGN C/fwd
130 CW to investigate the Networks’ responsibility to visit Unregistered sites. CW OPEN
131 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of using the Withdrawal date when producing age profiles for Shipperless Sites
Xoserve OPEN
132 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of presenting the statistics in a “Received, Cleared, Outstanding” format.
Xoserve OPEN
133 Xoserve to start work on a sample of 100 Aged Unregistered sites using on the agreed methods based on the straw man from Action 126
Xoserve OPEN
134 Xoserve to investigate the feasibility of reactivating the Planned (PL) Meter Point Status, so that new MPRNs are created as PL instead of Live (LI).
Xoserve OPEN
135 EM agreed to arrange industry consultation on the proposed MPRN Creation Process change, via the Energy Network Association (ENA).
EM OPEN
136 All to investigate the impact of the proposed MPRN Creation Process change on their organisations’ systems and processes and feedback any issues for the next Workgroup meeting.
All OPEN
137 All Networks to investigate examples of MPRNs set to DE in error. All DN’s OPEN
Statistical Information
Overall Industry volumesSep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Description
426 400 376 398 360 279 302 292
These reports are sent to specific Shippers & include sites where activity exists to suggest an intention to confirm i.e., Confirmation rejection, Meter asset update to the C&D store, ConQuest submission to create the MPRN or End User feedback.
TOTAL 14,957 14,834 14,845 15,023 15,138 15,263 15,445 15,767
With Meter6524
(43.36)6409
(43.20%)6331
(42.6%)6443
(42.9%)6442
(42.6%)6504
(42.6%)6591
(42.7%)6735 (42.7)
GSR 1,353 1,380 1,317 1,346 1,110 1,062 1,023 975
These contain sites which have previously been confirmed & the meter removed. Information provided by the Networks suggests either the existing meter is still on site or a new meter has been fitted. GSS are identified when a YES is found in the Live Supply Point? column.
GSS 890 917 903 1,015 1,003 919 845 113
4,657 4,748 4,657 4,781 4,957 4,985 4,977 4,781
1,397 1,175 1,408 1,199 1,291 1,290 1,387 1,433These contain MPRNs created on UK Link where no Shipper activity has been recorded and that remain unconfirmed.
32,022 32,303 32,653 33,329 33,758 34,307 34,903 35,524
These contain sites which can represent one of the following reasons; Vacant sites No Gas meter but live service Service still in planning stage
26,155 28,869 27,728 28,555 28,084 28,975 29,659 29,848Unconfirmed MPRNs with a created date <12 months. If not confirmed they will feed into the above categories & be issued to the industry.
80,967 83,709 82,984 84,631 84,698 86,161 87,696 88,620
Industry Unregistered and Shipperless Sites (Produced on a Bi-Monthly Basis)Unregistered Sites
Shipper Activity
Orphaned
This report is provided to the whole industry & indicates (following a response to the Shipper activity report) that a Shipper has no further interest in the MPRN or that no response is received within the period of production of the next Bi monthly report. This also includes sites where a service has been completed & in some instances a meter already installed.
Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS)
GSR - Not Registered on UK Link GSS - Registered on UK Link but without meter attachedShipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)
No Activity
Legitimately Unregistered
Meter Point created less than 12 months
TOTAL
Not included in Total Figures
Site churn
Total 15,767New This Month 269Removed This Month 0
Total 292New This Month 292Removed This Month 302
Total 35,524New This Month 621Removed This Month 0
Total 1,433New This Month 1,433Removed This Month 1,387
Orphaned Sites - November 2012
Shipper Activity - November 2012
Legitimately Unregistered - November 2012
No Activity - November 2012
Total 975New This Month 157Removed This Month 205
Total 4,781New This Month 179Removed This Month 375
Total 29,848New This Month 12,471Removed This Month 189
Less than 12 months - November 2012
PTS - November 2012
SSP - November 2012
Legitimately Unregistered: Age analysis
Legitimatley Unregistered: Age analysis
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Date
Co
un
t o
f M
PR
N's
Volume 116 31 58 422 1093 1294 2110 4475 7349 6162 3484 4683 4247
pre 2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Orphaned sites: Age analysis
Orphaned Sites: Age Analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Date
Co
un
t o
f M
PR
N's
Volume 335 536 819 958 1552 1418 1041 1072 1685 1878 1476 1552 1445
pre 2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SSP: Age analysis
SSP Age analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Year of Withdrawal
Am
ou
nt
of
MP
RN
's
Volume 5 6 25 8 7 5 71 225 283 823 990 577 437 58
pre2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PTS: Age analysis
SSP Age analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Year of Withdrawal
Am
ou
nt
of
MP
RN
's
Volume 5 6 25 8 7 5 71 225 283 823 990 577 437 58
pre2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Overall Industry volumes: Age analysis
Orphaned Legitimate
Year Volume % Volume %
Pre 2000 335 2.1% 116 0.3%
2000 536 3.4% 31 0.1%
2001 819 5.2% 58 0.2%
2002 958 6.1% 422 1.2%
2003 1,552 9.9% 1,093 3.1%
2004 1,418 9.0% 1,294 3.6%
2005 1,041 6.6% 2,110 5.9%
2006 1,072 6.8% 4,475 12.6%
2007 1,685 10.7% 7,349 20.7%
2008 1,878 11.9% 6,162 17.4%
2009 1,476 9.4% 3,484 9.8%
2010 1,552 9.8% 4,683 13.2%
2011 1,445 9.2% 4,247 12.0%
Total 15,767 100% 35,524 100%
AQ values (10years +)
Orphaned Legitimate
Year SSP (AQ) LSP (AQ) SSP (AQ) LSP (AQ)
Pre 2000 4,545,058 7,342,690 1,360,240 4,720,423
2000 9,456,533 3,364,449 578,215 0
2001 15,420,430 22,543,308 1,149,802 0
2002 17,797,603 16,825,608 7,656,705 33,552,728
Total 47,219,624 50,076,055 10,744,962 38,273,151
Overall Industry volumes: AQ values
SSP LSP
‘Shipper Activity’ 231 60
AQ value 4,680,666 22,101,063
‘Orphaned’ 12,881 2,887
AQ value 262,750,625 1,414,149,704
‘No activity’ 1,225 204
AQ value 25,743,814 535,688,577
‘Legitimate’ 29,529 5,710
AQ value 659,218,071 5,749,576,568
Total AQ 952,393,176 7,696,634,306
Key
Decrease
No change
Increase
Population cleansing
‘Strawman’
Proposal update
Increasing S&U population Since Sept’11 circa 7k more sites
Options to establish more accurate dataset Enabling improved focus where required Clearer data for AUGE
Workgroup agreed for defined methodology Production of ‘Strawman’ process
Background
Desktop investigation to determine bulk process
All Unregistered MPRNs>10 years old identified
Sample of 100 MPRNs selected
UK- Link examined for: nominations; failed confirmations; failed asset updates
Conquest examined for:MPRN Creation Request
DES examined for:CSEP Indicator
GB Address Manager and Post Office Website used to Validate Address
Internet Search Engines used to obtain additional
information
Local Authority Websites used to
check if site is occupied.
Shippers – ad hoc requests for
information.
Networks - ad hoc requests for
information.
MAMs – The sample would be provided to our existing MAM
contacts
UIPs - The sample would be provided to our existing MAM
contacts
MRA Site Visit End User Letters
Sample Selection
Xoserve System Checks
Internet Searches
External Communications
Further Actions
All Unregistered MPRNs>10 years old identified
Sample of 100 MPRNs selected
UK- Link examined for: nominations; failed confirmations; failed asset updates
Conquest examined for:MPRN Creation Request
DES examined for:CSEP Indicator
GB Address Manager and Post Office Website used to Validate Address
Internet Search Engines used to obtain additional
information
Local Authority Websites used to
check if site is occupied.
Shippers – ad hoc requests for
information.
Networks - ad hoc requests for
information.
MAMs – The sample would be provided to our existing MAM
contacts
UIPs - The sample would be provided to our existing MAM
contacts
MRA Site Visit End User Letters
Sample Selection
Xoserve System Checks
Internet Searches
External Communications
Further Actions
MPRNs will be set to DE if
No Action Required
Further action* will be deemed
necessary if
MPRNs will be set to EX if
Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link
with the same address (Domestic
Sites Only)
The site has been identified as a
CSEP or IGT site
Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link with an equivalent flat address (Flat 1
vs. Flat A)
It has been determined that the site has been
demolished
It has been determined that the service has been
removed
It has been determined that the service has been
replaced
It has been determined that the service exists but the meter has been removed
or no meter was ever fitted
It no conclusion can be drawn from investigations
OR OR
OR OR
The MPRN has a plot address and is
<5years old
OR
If a Nomination or Confirmation is received for
the MPRN.
* Further action may include End User Letters; MRA Site Visits or Network Site Visits tbc
Possible outcomes following investigation
Agree on scope of analysis Targeted the Orphaned population (100 oldest sites)
Agree on methodology Followed the steps agreed with Industry 19th Sept
Agree on confidence levels Shared output with DN’s and await feedback
Findings/updates to be shared via the Workgroup
Next steps
Detailed system analysis (100 oldest sites >10yrs)
High level ‘themes’; Flats & possible renovations Duplicates & Dead/Demolished Data conflict across systems
Agree if action can be taken without a site visit
Findings
Data Analysis Results
100 Aged MPRN's - Sample analysis
71%
14%
13%2%
Site visit
Dead
Extinct
Live
100 MPRN’s analysed
In 71% of cases a site visit is required Establish: MSN/MPR/Capable of passing gas/Supplier identity
13% Dead (property no longer exists)
14% Extinct (duplicate MPRN)
2% have subsequently been confirmed!
Findings
Recap…
Trial exercise undertaken in May'12 (100 sites)
20% of sites confirmed or resolved as duplicate MPRN's
Ongoing industry discussion re. benefit of further exercises
Recent dialogue with Ofgem/DN's/Xoserve to target issue
End User letters
Next steps…
'Strawman' desktop exercise encouraging ongoing option 30% resolved
Suggestion to further pursue desktop approach
Collaborative Xoserve/DN exercise Utilising central & local systems
Maintain commitment for ongoing focus & priority
End User letters
S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities
S&U Pot Priorities
Xoserve has assigned a priority ratings to each of the S&U pots
Two priorities have been assigned Initial priority; applied to the fresh datasets that are issued on a
bi-monthly basis. Secondary priority; applied on an ongoing basis, for continuous
work to reduce the overall population
The ratings were mainly based on the apparent ability to consume gas
Pot Descriptions and TrendsUnregistered Sites
Current Volume
12-month Trend
Difference Description
Shipper Activity 292 Down 68.54%
Reports are issued to the specific shippers containing MPRNs for which an activity has been identified. E.g. Confirmation rejection, Meter asset update to the C&D store, Conquest raised to create the M Number, End User. These reports only include MPRNs > 12 months from creation date.
Orphaned
With Meter
6,735 Up 3.13%This report is sent out to the whole industry. Records include MPRNs either following a shipper's response to the shipper activity report, that they have no further interest in the M Number, or where no response is received before the production of the next Bi monthly report. They include sites where a service has been completed and in some instances a meter already installed. This report only includes MPRNs > 12 months from creation date.
TOTAL 15,767 Up 5.14%
Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS)
GSR
975 Down 27.94% These contain sites which have previously been confirmed with meter removed. Information provided by the Networks suggests either the existing meter still on site or a new meter has been fitted.
Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)
4,781 Down 2.93%
No Activity 1,433 Up 2.51%These contain meter points created on UK Link where no shipper activity has been recorded and that remain unconfirmed.
Legitimately Unregistered
35,524 Up 9.86%These contain sites which can represent one of the following reasons: Vacant sites; No Gas meter but live service; Service still in planning stage
Meter Point created less than 12 months
29,484 Up 12.37%These figures provide details of meter points that have not reached the first anniversary of their creation date and remain unconfirmed.
TOTAL 88,256 Up 8.64%
Not included in Total Figures
Initial Pot Priorities
Unregistered Sites Initial Priority Justification
Shipper Activity 1Records within this pot have been associated with a particular shipper. It is important that the shippers thoroughly investigate records issued to them as soon as possible while the inforamtion is "fresh" to ensure that they do not fall into the Orphaned Pot unnecessarily.
Orphaned
With Meter 3This section of the S&U population should be treated with priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ.
TOTAL 5The remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot.
Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS)
GSR
2
Records within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN. They should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas, and that the meter on site is the one that the previous shipper has purported to have removed.
Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)
4Records within this pot should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas.
No Activity 6MPRNs in this pot have had no activity since their creation. Therfore it is not certain that gas is being consumed on these sites.
Legitimately Unregistered
8
Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised.
Meter Point created less than 12 months
7Previous analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.
Secondary Pot PrioritiesUnregistered Sites
Overall Priority
Justification
Shipper Activity N/ARecords within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE.
Orphaned
With Meter iThis section of the S&U population should be treated with the highest priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ.
TOTAL iiThe remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot.
Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS)
GSR
iii Records within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN.
Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP)
iv Records within this pot remain on the reports until they have been confirmed.
No Activity N/ARecords within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE.
Legitimately Unregistered
v
Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised.
Meter Point created less than 12 months
viPrevious analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.
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