since 1860

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

since 1860since 1860

Richard A MullerUC Berkeley

monthly temperaturemonthly temperature

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Ice Age Return?Ice Age Return?

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Mann StickMann Stick

C-14C-14

C-14variationswith time

P.E. Damon and C.P. Sonett, Solar and terrestrial components of the atmospheric 14C variation spectrum, in The Sun in Time, eds. C.P. Sonett, M.S. Giampapa and M.S. Matthews, University of Arizona Press, Tucson (1991).

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

TurkeyTurkey

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

A brief history A brief history of climateof climate

18651865

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

global warming

18501850

1850 1900 1950 2000

global warming

18351835

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

global warming

18001800

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

global warming

17501750

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-0.8

global warming

17001700

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-1

global warming

16501650

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

global warming

16001600

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Little Ice Age

global warming

14001400

1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Little Ice Age

global warming

12001200

1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000-1.5

Little Ice Age

global warming

Medieval warm period

10001000

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000-1.5

Little Ice Age

global warming

the “hockey stick”

10001000

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000-1.5

Little Ice Age

global warming

800800

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-1.5

VikingsLittle Ice Age

global warming

other records?

500500

500 1000 1500 2000-1.5

global warming

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-1.5

global warming

-500-500

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000-2

global warming

-1000-1000

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000-2

global warming

-2K-2K

-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000-2

global warming

-4K-4K

-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2

global warming

-7K-7K

-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2

global warming

Agriculture begins

Agri begins. Why?Agri begins. Why?

-8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2

global warming

Agriculture begins

-9K-9K

-9000 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2

global warming

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-3

global warming

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-3.5

global warmingMedieval warm period

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-4

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-5

Agriculture begins

-10K-10K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Agriculture begins

-11K-11K

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-6

Agriculture begins

-12K-12K

-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Agriculture begins

-14K-14K

-14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000-7

Agriculture begins

Ice AgeIce Age

Ice Age: glaciers &coast line

-17K-17K

-16000 -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Agriculture begins

-20K-20K

-20000 -18000 -16000 -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Agriculture begins

-40K-40K

-4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0x 104

Agriculture begins

kiloyears BCE10203040 0

-70K-70K

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0x 104

Agriculture begins

-90K-90K

-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0x 104

Agriculture begins

-120 interglac-120 interglac

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0x 104

Agriculture begins

vostokdeuterium

GreenlandO-18

-140K-140K

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0x 104

Agriculture begins

vostokdeuterium

GreenlandO-18

-250K-250K

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0x 105

global warmingMedieval warm periodAgriculture begins

kiloyears BCE50150250 100200 0

-350K-350K

-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0x 105

global warmingMedieval warm periodAgriculture begins

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

IPCC predictionsIPCC predictions

Technology Review articlesTechnology Review articles

Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrickSteve McIntyre and Ross McKitrickMonte Carlo resultsMonte Carlo results

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

NRC T(t)NRC T(t)

So What?So What?

C-14 variationsC-14 variations

sunspotssunspots

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Warming only since 1970?Warming only since 1970?

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

CO2 no offsetCO2 no offset

spectral windowsspectral windows

GreenhousGreenhousee

effecteffect sunlight

atmosphere

IR to space

H2O, CO2, O3

Physics calculation:

T increase by factor of about sqrt(sqrt(2))

= 100 F

(Car in parking lot effect)

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

cloudsclouds

Cloud cover:the big unknown

Is cloud cover changing due to other effects -- either solar, or random, or …?

2% change in cloud cover would overwhelm human

Radiative Forcings 2007Radiative Forcings 2007

Svensmark & Friis-Svensmark & Friis-ChristensenChristensen

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Acidify theAcidify theOceans?Oceans?

The direct effects of COThe direct effects of CO2 2 on ocean acidityon ocean acidity

AnecdotesAnecdotes

Berkeley snowBerkeley snow

Berkeley 1885Looking East on Durant. Steeple is 1st Congregational Church at Durant & Dana.

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

swim suitsswim suits

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Jan 312002

Larsen BIce Shelf

Larsen Ice 1Larsen Ice 1

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Feb 17

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Feb 23

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

March 5

1255square miles

650 feetthick

720 billion tons

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Amery IceAmery Ice

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Antarctica losing ice Antarctica losing ice massmass

Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.

The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.

The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.

Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Inconvenient Truth CO2 & TInconvenient Truth CO2 & T

from “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore

“Here is an important point. If my classmate from sixth grade were to see this -- you remember, the guy who asked about South America and Africa [continental drift] -- he would ask, “Did they ever fit together? “The answer from the scientists would be, ‘Yes, they do fit together.’ “It’s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the sun is trapped inside…. “There is not a single part of this graph -- no fact, date, or number -- that is controversial in any way or is disputed by anybody. “To the extent that there is a controversy at all, it is that a few people in some of the less responsible coal, oil, and utility companies say, ‘So what? That’s not going to cause any problem.’ “But if we allow this to happen, it would be deeply and unforgivably immoral.”

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

CO2 lags climateCO2 lags climate

N. Caillon et al., Science vol 299, 1728, 14 March 2003

Temperature change precedes CO2 change by 800 ± 200 yrs

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

GreenlandGreenland

“Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn.“If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.

Al Gore -- An Inconvenient Truth

Calculations by the Hadley Centerfor Climate Change, Met Office

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Thermohaline Circulation Thermohaline Circulation Turn off?Turn off?

Atlantic ocean circulationAtlantic ocean circulationpredicted to declinepredicted to decline

but not switch offbut not switch off

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Intense hurricanesIntense hurricanes

NOAA Annual PublicationNOAA Annual PublicationThe Climate of 2006The Climate of 2006

wildfires - both plotswildfires - both plots

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

tornadoestornadoes

Asian SootAsian Soot

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

rainfallrainfall

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Hansen plot revisedHansen plot revised

Playing with Playing with dynamitedynamite

We are adding enough CO2 to We are adding enough CO2 to the atmosphere that we need the atmosphere that we need

to worry.to worry.

What do we What do we do?do?

Conservation

Carbon Credits

Clean Coal

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

World energy useWorld energy use

GDP for most countries GDP for most countries correlates with energy usecorrelates with energy use

(plot courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

oil foreveroil forever

We are running out of cheap ($20/bbl) oilWe are running out of cheap ($20/bbl) oil We are NOT running out of expensive ($50/bbl) oilWe are NOT running out of expensive ($50/bbl) oil At that price, coal can be converted to diesel fuel At that price, coal can be converted to diesel fuel

(Fisher-Tropsch process). That implies an “infinite” (Fisher-Tropsch process). That implies an “infinite” supply.supply.

cost of coalcost of coal

fuelfuel market costmarket cost cost per kWh cost per kWh (1000 Cal)(1000 Cal)

cost if cost if converted to converted to electricityelectricity

coalcoal $40 per ton$40 per ton 0.6¢0.6¢ 1.8¢1.8¢

natural gasnatural gas $10 per $10 per million cubic million cubic feetfeet

3¢3¢ 9¢9¢

gasolinegasoline $3 per gallon$3 per gallon 9¢9¢ 27¢27¢

electricityelectricity $0.10 per $0.10 per kWhkWh

10¢10¢ 10¢10¢

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty

Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify)

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

No restrictions on China or India

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

No restrictions on China or IndiaUS Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution:

95-0 binding targets and timetables for developing nations

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

No restrictions on China or IndiaUS Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution:

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

China: currently building one new gigawatt coal power plant every week…

plus two new gigawatt nuclear reactors per year.

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

China and IndiaChina and India

(Numbers courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

2121stst century emissions from the Developing World will century emissions from the Developing World will surpass those of Industrialized World 2015-2025surpass those of Industrialized World 2015-2025

Developing world emissions growing at 2.8% Developing world emissions growing at 2.8% vs industrialized world growing at 1.2%vs industrialized world growing at 1.2%

Sobering factsSobering facts

When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is

overcome by overcome by < 4 years< 4 years of developing world growth of developing world growth

If China’s (or If China’s (or India’sIndia’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, ) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher than todayglobal emissions would be 40% higher than today

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

If global warming is caused by greenhouse emissions, and the US ratifies the treaty, then the temperature rise will be delayed by at most, a few years.

Unless China and India agree to reductions, use non-yet existing conservation techniques, or sequester.

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

A Really Inconvenient TruthA Really Inconvenient TruthLarge reserves of natural oil are recoverable at $50-70 /bbl Fisher-Tropsch process allows diesel to be made from coal at about $40-$50 bbl

done by Nazis in WWIIdone by South Africa for last several decades

We are not going to run out of fossil fuels!

The future of global warming -- if human caused -- depends on China and India.

Who will pay?

China CO2 surpassing USChina CO2 surpassing US

China COChina CO22 surpasses surpasses US COUS CO22

in 2007?in 2007?

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

IGCC integrated gas IGCC integrated gas combined cyclecombined cycle

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Energy flowEnergy flow

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Global WarmingGlobal Warminga bigger issue:a bigger issue:What is the proper role What is the proper role

of scientists?of scientists?

… … to analyze dispassionately and to analyze dispassionately and report without prejudice?report without prejudice?

… … to spin the results to avoid the risk to spin the results to avoid the risk that the public will misinterpret or that the public will misinterpret or

underestimate the dangers?underestimate the dangers?

from An Inconvenient Truthby Al Gore

Josh Billings(a 19th century humorist)

The trouble with most folks isn’t so much their ignorance --it’s known’ so many things that ain’t so.

What do we What do we do?do?

Conservation

Chinese Clean Coal

Carbon Credits

compact fluorescents in Notre Dame de Paris

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

1998 was the warmest year on record!

Is another cooling spell possible?

CO2 for 550 Myr RohdeCO2 for 550 Myr Rohde

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

65 Myr climate Rohde65 Myr climate Rohde

plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

sea level risesea level rise

plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia

cloud numberscloud numbers

HighHighthinthin

HighHighthickthick

middlemiddlethinthin

middlemiddlethickthick

all lowall lowcloudsclouds

TotalTotal

global global fraction (%)fraction (%) +10.1+10.1 +8.6+8.6 +10.7+10.7 +7.3+7.3 +26.6+26.6 +63+63

ForcingForcingAlbedo Albedo (W/m(W/m22))

-4.1-4.1 -15.6-15.6 -3.7-3.7 -9.9-9.9 -20.2-20.2 -53.5-53.5

Outgoing Outgoing IR (W/mIR (W/m22)) +6.5+6.5 +8.6+8.6 +4.8+4.8 +2.4+2.4 +3.5+3.5 +25.8+25.8

Net Net forcing forcing (W/m(W/m22))

2.42.4 -7.0-7.0 +1.1+1.1 -7.5-7.5 -16.7-16.7 -27.7-27.7

Role of clouds

c.f. insolation variations rms = 18 W/m2

Richard A Muller

UC Berkeley

HavanaHavana

Havana 2003 (vs 1850)

since 1860

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