socio-economic planning secretary dr emmanuel esguerra presentation on philippine transport industry...
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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Transport Industry Directions 2016:Philippine Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
Emmanuel ! Es"uerra#ecretary of #ocio$Economic Policy and Plannin"
%ational Economic and De&elopment 'uthority
08 March 2016
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I! Economic Performance and achie&ements
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
6-yr moving average 6.2% 2010-2015 ave
Average growth in 2010-2015 is the highest 6-yearaverage growth since the mid-1970s.
Source: NEDA Staff calculations
1971-1976;1972-1977;
1973-1978
2010-2015
3
in %Rea !"# growth $6-year moving average%
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1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
griculture !n"ustryServices
Supply Side
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015-2.0
-1.00.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
#et e$%orts !nvestment&overnment 'onsum%tion
Demand Side
&nvestment and ind'stry are increasing y(ecoming ma)or drivers o* !"# growth.
2.8%
4.5%
6.2%
2.8%
4.5%
6.2%ve.
gro(t)
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Industry De&elopment is (ettin" ' )i" Push
Industry *oadmaps: 35 total sectoralroadmaps, 29 of which are completed s!ch asma"!fact!ri"#, chemicals, copper prod!cts,r!$$er prod!cts, %&'()M, electro"ics,aerospace, amo"# others* while 6 are still$ei"# fi"ali+ed &hese sectoral roadmaps arethe $!ildi"# $loc-s of the Ma"!fact!ri"#%"d!str. /oadmap M%/* a"d the
omprehe"si e Natio"al %"d!strial Strate#.N%S
Manufacturin" *esur"ence Pro"ram ' willre$!ild the e isti"# capacit. of i"d!stries,stre"#the" "ew o"es, a"d mai"tai" thecompetiti e"ess of i"d!stries with comparati ead a"ta#e &he #oals close the #aps i" thes!ppl. chai", pro ide access to raw materials,a"d e pa"d domestic mar-ets a"d e ports
2000-2009 2010-20150
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Manufacturin" contri+ution to (ro,th
The economy is no, on a hi"her "ro,th tra-ectory ,ith increasin"contri+ution from the manufacturin" sector
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+o'rth ,'arter +
201 2015 201 2015
/' y sidegriculture 4.2 -0.3 1.6 0.2
!n"ustry 9.1 6.8 7.9 6.0o.(. *anu+acturing 7.7 6.6 8.3 5.7Services 5.6 7.4 5.9 6.7
"emand side,rivate consum tion 5.0 6.4 5.4 6.2&overnment consum tion 9.4 17.4 1.7 9.4
'a ital ormation 3.0 13.5 5.4 13.6 o.(. i$e" ca ital+ormation 8.0 22.5 6.8 14.0
$ orts 12.8 7.1 11.3 5.5!m orts 9.9 13.3 8.7 11.9
!R // " /4&
#R " 4 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.8Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
!rowth o* !"# (y om onent $ %
Recent er*ormance indicates that the economy smoment'm remains intact
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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Source: ,)ili ine Statistics ut)ority
/ur vi rant economy is ro"ucing more an" etter o s...Unemployment and Underemployment
rates $ %
Employment Generated 2010-2015(‘000)
ationa conomic and "eve o ment A'thority
6nem0 oyment $7%6nderem0 oyment $7%
6nem0 oyment Rate
3m oyment !enerated $:000%
#otes:a )e 2014 S estimate is t)e average o+ ril uly an" /ct roun"s e$clu"ing eyte "ata
)e 2015 S estimates is t)e average o+ t)e an to /ct 2015 roun"s e$clu"ing eyte "atac 2015 em loyment generation estimate is t)e average o+ ril uly an" /ct e$clu"ing eyte "ata
1997-2005: "o tion o+ o ulation ro ection enc)mar is ase" on t)e results o+ t)e 1995 'ensus2006-current: "o tion o+ o ulation ro ection enc)mar ase" on t)e results o+ t)e 2000 'ensus
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
0,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
E t er " al De $t to D) /a ti o ' 7 8S ! r re "t A cc o! "t to D) /a ti o ' /8S
Positi&e .urr ent 'cct! / Declinin" E0terna l De+t
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
'as):emittances
; ?S
.ontinuous remittances amidst slo,do,n indeployment
? @ ,? !A B# S& !# '? C *-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140125.1
85.0
47.5
8.6 7.5 6.5 3.4 2.0 1.4
;8.6>
'&era"e (ro,th of DI 2012$201
urce: Dang o Sentral ng ,ili inas
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 an-#ov 20150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
&ncreasing et +"&
#e t A! ; gro(t) ;%>
*o+ust E ternal Position
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9
Our stron"er fiscal position has +een reco"ni3ed "arnerin" anin&estment$"rade so&erei"n credit ratin" for the first time in our history!
Modest fscal defcit; Declining Public debt & interest payments; Increasing reliance on domestic fnancingResult: resilient fscal position
iscal side :
iscal,osition
#ational &overnment Dorro(ing ,rogram ;%>
S)are o+ e$ en"itures allocate" to interest ayments
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.0080.00
#ational govEt outstan"ing "e t ;% o+ &A,>
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.020.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
14.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
65.0 65.6 65.283.6
93.972.1
60.774.9
84.5
35.0 34.4 34.816.4
6.127.9
39.325.1
15.5
oreign Aomestic
;10.00>
;5.00>
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
iscal ,osition evenue Fort a$ Fort
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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!rowth-enhanced sca s ace has a owed ma)orinvestments in in*rastr'ct're with s ending onin*rastr'ct're more than tri ing...
Source: Ae artment o+ Du"get an" *anagement
#'( ic in*rastr'ct're s ending< =n #h#and o* !"#
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
306.9 346.2 595.8 766.5 876.6 1018.7
2.7 2.7
4.3
5.05.2
5.4
ctual ;2013-2014> ,rogram;2015> ,ro ose";2016> ,ro ections;2017-2018> atio to &A, ;r)s>
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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>com emented (y rivate investments in'( ic in*rastr'ct'reStatus o! """ "ro#ects (as o! 1$ e%ruary201$)
Source: ,,, 'enterationa conomic and "eve o ment A'thority
#ro)ects (y /tat's o. o*#ro)ectsAmo'nt
$#?# (n%#ro)ects nder &m ementation
'ontract (ar"e" 12 196.53 /t)er ro ects un"er !m lementation 2 106.73### #i e ine
,ro ects un"er ,rocurement 14 556.6 ,ro ects +or oll-out 2 66.1 or roval o+ elevant &overnment
Do"ies
5101.94
,ro ects (it) /ngoing Stu"ies 2 539.41 or ,rocurement o+ 'onsultants to
'on"uct ,re-investment Stu"ies5 #
,ro ects
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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4nderpinned +y stron"er links +et,een In&estmentPro"rammin" and )ud"etin"
< "ate o+ t)e'om re)ensive an"
!ntegrate"!n+rastructure
,rogram ;'!!,> atleast once a year.
!m lementation o+ )ree ear!n+rastructure olling
,rogram ; !,> y
uly 2016
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
13/25Source: omprehensi!e & Integrated In"rastructure Program ( IIP) : PhP# $%# n (as o"
4ota &n*rastr'ct're&nvestment (y /ector $2013-
2016 and (eyond%
=' @ o* which are s ated *or trans ortation< socia <and energy in*rastr'ct'res..
4o 10 Agencies with the argest&nvestment
ReB'irements in the &Ran@ ame o*Agency
C o*#ro)ects
&nvestmentost
$in 4ho'sand#h#%
1 A,@? 323 2 269.35
2 A/ ' 588 1 397.763 A/ 275 1 327.064 A/? 39 503.715 Ae " 7 310.776 /, S * 258 234.877 D'A 14 210.228 ?
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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urce: Amended *inali+ed IIP (as o" May %' )
4hese ro)ects are *'nded most y (y the nationagovernment>
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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Multimodal Transport&he )hilippi"e De elopme"t )la" 2011'2016ide"tified the "eed to de elop a"d impro elo#istics i"frastr!ct!re $.
)ro idi"# i"terco""ecti it. i" e"tral 7!+o",Metro Ma"ila a"d A7A(A/:;N
De elopi"# a seamless m!ltimodal lo#istics
s.stem alo"# S!$ic' lar-'Ma"ila'(ata"#ascorridor
E"ha"ci"# i"ter'isla"d lo#istics
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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*ecent Efforts for Transport #ystems De&elopment#rogramE/t'dy +oc's Area
)e Survey on *in"anao ogistics!n+rastructure #et(or ;S* !#>
ogistics !n+rastructure System in*in"anao
)e rans ort !n+rastructureoa"ma +or *etro *anila an" !ts
Surroun"ing reas ; egions !!! an"!B- > ; oa"ma >
!n+rastructure System to a""resscongestion in *etro *anila an" itssurroun"ing areas
Ae artment o+ ourism ;A/ >-Ae artment o+ ,u lic @or s an"?ig)(ays ;A,@?> 'onvergence,rogram ;'onvergence ,rogram>
ogistics !n+rastructure rovi"ing roa"access to +rom tourist "estination areasan" ot)er trans ort in+rastructuressuc) as orts an" air orts
*aster ,lan on ?ig) Stan"ar"?ig)(ay ;?S?> #et(orAevelo ment
oa" net(or an" routes +or ?S?(it)in t)e s )ere o+ 200- m ra"ius+rom *etro *anila to meet +uture traHc"eman"
Aata 'ollection Survey onAisaster- esilient ee"er ,orts an"
ogistics #et(or
Aisaster-resilient net(or o+ +ee"erorts to ensure a secure an" smoot)
logistics even in time o+ "isaster
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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*oadmap for Transport Infrastructure De&elopment for Metro Manila andIts #urroundin" 'reas
/tat's o* /hort- term &nvestment #rograms
ompleted )ro
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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Multimodal Transport rame,ork'#E'% rame,ork '"reement onMultimodal Transport
&he a#reeme"t reco#"i+es the "eed tode elop a" eco"omic a"d efficie"tm!ltimodal tra"sport ser ices to e pa"dtrade $etwee" mem$er states a"d thirdco!"tries
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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2012 201
International 8PI score 5!02 5!0
!stoms 2 63 3 0
%"frastr!ct!re 2 8 2 6
Ease of arra"#i"# shipme"ts 2 9 3 33
!alit. of lo#istic ser ices 3 14 2 93
&rac-i"# a"d traci"# 3 3 3 0
&imeli"ess 3 3 3 0
Philippines9 8o"istics Performance +y area
Source: @orl" Dan ogistics ,er+ormance !n"e$
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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II! Prospects and .hallen"es
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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@ra#ile #rowth i" Bapa"Slowdow" i" lar#e emer#i"# eco"omies, partic!larl. hi"a
As."chro"o!s mo"etar. policies i" ma
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%ear$term E pected Dri&ers of (ro,th
Supply side
7ower petrole!m prices(!si"ess )rocess Ma"a#eme"t ()M* f!eli"# #rowth i" the real estate, re"ti"#,a"d $!si"ess acti ities sector
o"str!ctio" a"d i"frastr!ct!re de elopme"t
%"ter"atio"al a"d domestic to!rism
Cholesale a"d retail trade
Ma"!fact!ri"# res!r#e"ce
Demand side
o!sehold co"s!mptio" remitta"ce i"flows, stro"# co"s!mer co"fide"ce, lowi"flatio" re#ime
o er"me"t spe"di"# e pa"sio" of social protectio" pro#rams i e &, '12,)hilhealth co era#e, etc*
%" estme"t p!$lic co"str!ctio", i"cl!di"# i"frastr!ct!re a"d reco"str!ctio" pri ateco"str!ctio"
E ports of ser ices #ood prospects for ()M a"d to!rism
22
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.lose the infrastructure "ap
Maintain hi"h le&els of pu+lic in&estments in human capitalparticularly in health and education
In&est in disaster resiliency
Promote more sustaina+le production and consumptionpatterns
#tren"then institutions
Promote healthy competition
oster inno&ation culture
Encoura"e entrepreneurship
;o, do ,e keep the momentum in 2016 and +eyond<
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Chat it is e" isio"ed to $e F %tGs a lo"#'term 25 .ears* isio" for the )hilippi"es F %tGs a $asis of !"it. amo"# @ilipi"os F A #!ide for de elopme"t pla""i"# across
admi"istratio"s F A #!ide for i"ter"atio"al de elopme"t assista"ce
24
+i i ino 20 0F ong-term Bision $ercise
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8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016
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ransport Industry Directions 2016:hilippine Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
Emmanuel ! Es"uerra#ecretary of #ocio$Economic Policy and Plannin"
%ational Economic and De&elopment 'uthority
08 March 2016
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