southeast michigan council of governments. livingston washtenaw monroe oakland wayne macomb st....

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

LivingstonLivingston

WashtenawWashtenaw

MonroeMonroe

OaklandOakland

WayneWayne

MacombMacomb

St. ClairSt. Clair

SEMCOGSEMCOG RegionRegion

Origin and Destination of Commercial Origin and Destination of Commercial Vehicle Traffic Across Ambassador Vehicle Traffic Across Ambassador

BridgeBridge

Source: National Roadside Survey, 1999

Origin and Destination of Commercial Origin and Destination of Commercial Vehicles Across Blue Water BridgeVehicles Across Blue Water Bridge

Source: National Roadside Survey, 1999

Annual Volumes for Road Border Annual Volumes for Road Border Crossings in Southeast Michigan by Crossings in Southeast Michigan by

Mode, 1995 to 2007Mode, 1995 to 2007

Source: Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association

Annual Volumes for Road Border Annual Volumes for Road Border Crossings in Southeast Michigan by Crossings in Southeast Michigan by

Crossing, 1995 to 2007Crossing, 1995 to 2007

Source: Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association

Annual Passenger Car Volumes for Annual Passenger Car Volumes for Road Border Crossings in SE Michigan Road Border Crossings in SE Michigan

by Crossing, 1995 to 2007by Crossing, 1995 to 2007

Source: Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association

Annual Truck Volumes for Road Border Annual Truck Volumes for Road Border Crossings in SE Michigan by Crossing, Crossings in SE Michigan by Crossing,

1995 to 20071995 to 2007

Source: Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association

Long-Term Freight Forecast, Long-Term Freight Forecast, 20352035

Source: FAF2

Border Crossing ProjectionBorder Crossing Projection

Source: DRIC

U.S and Canada Trade U.S and Canada Trade Facts and Figures:Facts and Figures:

• U.S merchandise trade with Canada is over $400 billion.

• Forty three percent of the U.S-Canada trade, totaling over $140 billion annually, crosses at Southeast Michigan/Southwest Ontario border.

• The trade between Michigan and Canada over $70 billion.

• U.S imported $138 billion in goods from Ontario in 2004, and exported $117 billion worth of goods to Ontario.

Southeast Michigan Border Southeast Michigan Border Crossing Traffic Highlights:Crossing Traffic Highlights:

• The Ambassador Bridge is the busiest international commercial crossing in North America with over 3.2 million truck crossings in 2006 with goods values at $100 billion.

• The Blue Water Bridge is second only to the Ambassador Bridge in U.S/Canada truck crossings with 1.5 million in 2006 and a value of $70 billion.

Valuable GatewaysValuable GatewaysTop 5 U.S. Ports by Value for North American Trade in 2007

(Current $, billions)

Rank Port name State Total U.S. Trade

1 Detroit MI 137

2 Laredo TX 110

3 Buffalo-Niagara Falls NY 79

4 Port Huron MI 77

5 El Paso TX 49

Source: USDOT TransBorder

Regional Development Regional Development ForecastForecast

• PopulationPopulation

• Employment Employment

• Labor forceLabor force

Labor ForceLabor Force

• AgingAging

• Physical vs. knowledge-basedPhysical vs. knowledge-based

• Brain drainBrain drain

RDF Summary RDF Summary

• Domestic auto industry sufferingDomestic auto industry suffering• Employment up 7% by 2035Employment up 7% by 2035• Population up 3% by 2035Population up 3% by 2035• Households up 13% by 2035Households up 13% by 2035• An aging population and workforceAn aging population and workforce• Education levels need to improveEducation levels need to improve

Conclusion Conclusion

Border InvestmentsBorder Investments

• Blue Water Bridge U.S. PlazaBlue Water Bridge U.S. Plaza

• Ambassador Bridge Gateway ProjectAmbassador Bridge Gateway Project

• Detroit River International Crossing Detroit River International Crossing ProjectProject

• Operations (e.g., ITS)Operations (e.g., ITS)

• Private investmentPrivate investment

Data GapsData Gaps• Truck RoutingTruck Routing• Tying Freight to EconomyTying Freight to Economy

• Value of Border to Host CommunitiesValue of Border to Host Communities

• Pass-Through Trips (especially passenger)Pass-Through Trips (especially passenger)• Empty Truck TripsEmpty Truck Trips• Improved ComparabilityImproved Comparability• Consistent Data ReleaseConsistent Data Release

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

Employment Employment

Percent Concentration by Sector Percent Concentration by Sector in Southeast Michigan in Southeast Michigan

vs. United Statesvs. United States20052005

IndustryIndustry

Motor vehicles and parts manufacturingMotor vehicles and parts manufacturing(production plants)(production plants)

PercentagePercentage

+680%+680%

-22%-22%

-1%-1%

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

ConcentrationConcentrationRelativeRelative

Manufacturing except motor vehiclesManufacturing except motor vehiclesand partsand parts

Private nonmanufacturingPrivate nonmanufacturing

Manufacturing (Production) Manufacturing (Production) EmploymentEmployment

United States, 2001-2035United States, 2001-2035

Mill

ion

s

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

0

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

Manufacturing (Production) Manufacturing (Production) Employment: Total and Employment: Total and Motor Vehicles & Parts Motor Vehicles & Parts

Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035

0

300

400

350

250

Th

ou

san

ds

450

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Total ManufacturingTotal Manufacturing

Motor Vehicles & PartsMotor Vehicles & Parts

50

150

100

200

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

Total EmploymentTotal Employment Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035

0

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

Mill

ion

s

3.0

2001

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Population Population

PopulationPopulation Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035Southeast Michigan, 2001-2035

0

4.8

5.0

4.9

4.7

Mill

ion

s

5.1

2001

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 plus

2005

Population Age GroupsPopulation Age Groups Southeast Michigan, 2005 and 2035Southeast Michigan, 2005 and 2035

2035Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth in the Labor Forcein the Labor Force

U.S. and SEMCOG Region, 1990-2035U.S. and SEMCOG Region, 1990-20352.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

SEMCOG RegionU.S.

Percent College Graduates Percent College Graduates Adults Age 25+Adults Age 25+

1990 and 20051990 and 2005

20 20 1919

27 27 2525

2828

17 17

U.S.U.S. MichiganMichigan Southeast MichiganSoutheast Michigan

Per

cen

t w

ith

a B

ach

elo

r's

Per

cen

t w

ith

a B

ach

elo

r's

Deg

ree

or

Hig

her

Deg

ree

or

Hig

her

19901990 20052005

Source: 1990 Census and 2005 American Community Survey

Migration by Age and EducationMigration by Age and Education1995-20001995-2000

Age in 2000Age in 2000

Without College DegreeWithout College Degree

20 to 2420 to 2425 to 3425 to 3435 to 5435 to 54

54 and over54 and overTotalTotal

With College DegreeWith College Degree20 to 2420 to 2425 to 3425 to 3435 to 5435 to 54

54 and over54 and overTotalTotal

Net DomesticNet DomesticMigrationMigration

-19,070-19,0702,7162,716

-16,985-16,985-32,624-32,624-71,395-71,395

-920-920

-1,881-1,881-4,280-4,280

-10,893-10,893-14,212-14,212

InternationalInternationalIn-MigrationIn-Migration

9, 9079, 90716,23316,23316,08816,088

5,8335,83348,06148,061

2,9032,903

17,43117,43111,81911,819

1,7811,78133,93433,934

Border Crossing TrendsBorder Crossing Trends

Source: BTOA

15,069,601

22,304,179

19,442,0175,262,080

5,128,491

3,664,513

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

An

nu

al

Vo

lum

es

Trucks Passenger Cars

Annual Volumes for Ambassador Annual Volumes for Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge and Detroit-Bridge, Blue Water Bridge and Detroit-

Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006

9,680,232

12,440,026

7,221,749

5,331,751

5,976,831

5,510,120

5,457,1646,982,059

9,608,655

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

Detroit Windsor Tunnel

Blue Water Bridge Ambassador Bridge

Annual Traffic Volumes, 1990-Annual Traffic Volumes, 1990-20062006

An

nu

al

Vo

lum

es

6,113,114

8,924,5717,497,940

3,686,528

4,390,302

3,796,572

5,269,959

9,337,106

8,147,505

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Det-Wind-Passenger BlueWater-Passenger Ambassador-Passenger

Annual Passenger Car Volumes for Ambassador Bridge, Annual Passenger Car Volumes for Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge and Detroit –Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006Blue Water Bridge and Detroit –Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006

3,498,127

3,238,474

3,486,110

2,218,596

1,636,5201,799,371

1,178,730

152,963127,433

267,187

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ambassador-Trucks Blue Water-Truck Detroit-Windsor-Truck

Annual Truck Volumes for Ambassador Annual Truck Volumes for Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge and Detroit –Bridge, Blue Water Bridge and Detroit –

Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006Windsor Tunnel, 1995-2006

An

nu

al

Vo

lum

es