space weather services

Space Weather Services

Ian McCrea(from slides by Mike Hapgood)

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Space Weather Systems

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Why international data exchange matters: an example

US civil data centre (NOAA)

UK data centre (RAL)

Operator

UK ionosonde measurements

Other data providers

Sees Does not see

US military data centre (AFWA)

Service provider (Ionospheric modelling)

Operational products

e.g. space surveillance, tactical comms,

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Modelling assets• Thermospheric GCM (UCL, also Met

Office)• Assimilative ionospheric model

(QinetiQ)• MIDAS ionospheric tomography/data

assimilation model (Bath)• Atmospheric radiation model, spacecraft

internal charging, modelling radiation shielding (QinetiQ)

• Automated Solar Activity Prediction Tool ( Bradford)

• International Geomagnetic Reference Field (led by BGS)

• Kinetic modelling of coronal mass ejections (RAL)

• What are funding constraints and sources?

• How to transition models to services? Who funds?

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Space sensor technology• High-res space cameras (RAL)–STEREO (HI, EUVI, COR)–SDO (AIA, HMI)–SMEI and GOES?

• Energetic particles (MSSL, RAL)–Cluster, Cosmic Visions

• Radiation dose (QinetiQ, Surrey)–Shuttle, Concorde, Giove, …

•Magnetic field (ICL)–Cluster, Cosmic Visions, cubesat

• Image: ESA

• Image: STFC/RAL

• What are funding issues?• Scope for GSTP funding?

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Data assets• UK Solar System Data Centre (RAL)– data & models for solar and STP studies– World Data Centre C1 for STP– Moving to 50/50 funding by NERC/STFC: NERC lead

• CSDSweb (RAL)– Magnetospheric near-realtime conditions using Cluster

• World Data Centre for Geomagnetism (BGS)– NERC facility

• Others?• What are funding issues?• Scope for future funding?

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Campaign assets• Solar spectroscopy (RAL, MSSL, Cambridge, …)– Instruments: SOHO/CDS, Hinode/EIS–Atomic databases: ADAS and CHIANTI

• Interplanetary scintillation Aberystwyth) –EISCAT+Merlin

• Magnetosphere (ICL, MSSL, Sheffield, RAL)–Cluster

• Thermospheric winds (UCL)• Ionospheric tomography (Aberystwyth, Bath)• Aurora precipitation ASK (Southampton)• Oblique sounding (Leicester, QQ)

• Recognise value for cal/val activities

• What are funding issues?• Scope for future funding?

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

Technical potential

• Space weather knowledge– research, education, outreach

• Space weather services–Many institutes already have expertise

• Turning knowledge into services:– Requirements (expertise)– Scope for innovation - discuss

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

European bottom-up activities

• COST ES0803– Developing Space Weather Products and Services in Europe– http://www.costes0803.noa.gr/– Assessment of models, spec of SpW products & services, outreach

• Euro Space Weather Week– Annual meeting of Euro SpW community– Next: 15-19 Nov 2010 in Brugge/Bruges– Mix of plenary & splinter sessions– Networking opportunity (balances EGU?)

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

EU Framework programmes

• HELIO – data handling (builds on EGSO)– MSSL lead, also RAL & Manchester

• EISCAT-3D preparatory programme bid in 2010 RI Call• Major space weather item in 2010 Space Call

– 22MEuro to be shared with debris projects– Bids in 8 Dec 2009, now under evaluation– Much UK involvement & leadership*– Includes ionospheric effects for space systems*, rad belt*, GIC, effects

on polar aviation*, atmospheric drag• Lobbying for remaining FP7 Call and FP8

– Get ground-based SpW in RI system– Working with EISCAT and EURIPOS

A Specific Example:Space Weather Services for Cryosat

• EISCAT colleagues report contact from Cryosat project– Need information on polar ionosphere– So turned to EISCAT as major Arctic centre for

ionospheric science• What is Cryosat?– ESA mission to monitor sea ice and ice sheets– Europe’s first ice mission (C1 launch failed)– Radar altimeter for precise (cm) measurements– Must correct for ionospheric delays– Launch due 8 April

What has been done?

• Science report:– “ionospheric correction variable but small in polar

regions”– use products from DORIS space geodesy system

• Mission paper: ASR 37 (2006) 841–871– Doris TEC data– Use of Bent ionosphere model

What could be improved?• Do polar patches matter?– Small (~100 km) regions of

cool high density plasma–Drifting anti-sunward across

polar cap –More prominent in winter –What is impact on radar

data?

from Wood et al, Ann. Geophys., 27, 3923–3932, 2009

How to move to services?• Plasma source: dayside

photo-ionisation• Drawn into polar cap • Broken up by variations in

convection pattern– bursty reconnection at

magnetopause– Driven by IMF: Bz and By

• Can we encourage service development?– Explicit patch nowcast?– Estimate statistical

occurrence of patches?

11 Feb 2010 Space weather activities in the UK

High-level actions

• Organisation of a community– identity– additional members, links– follow-up

• Lobbying– RCs, Space Agency

• Dissemination activities– Documents, web