…spring forecast 2011…. weakening la nina? major drought for lower plains and deep...

……SPRING FORECAST 2011….SPRING FORECAST 2011…. WEAKENING WEAKENING La Nina?La Nina?

MAJOR DROUGHT MAJOR DROUGHT FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH

PLANTING DELAYS CONCERNS ...AGAIN... 7TH PLANTING DELAYS CONCERNS ...AGAIN... 7TH TIME IN 8 YEARSTIME IN 8 YEARS

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SEVERE WX SEASONMUCH ABOVE NORMAL SEVERE WX SEASON

...REVIEW OF WINTER 2010-11…

WHAT HAPPENED TO ALLL THOSE THE MILD WINTER FORECASTS ???

http://tinyurl.com/3xpebtj

Wxrisk 2010-11 WINTER FORECAST

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER SE ...OHIO VALLEY... AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL E OF THE ROCKIES

SUPER DRY OVER LOWERPLAINS INTO THE DELTA … SUPER WEST OVER CALIF ...GREAT BASIN AND UPEPR PLAINS

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS E OF THE ROCKIES... SMALL AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL OVER UPER PLAINS & SE STATES

MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL SW INTO LOWER PLAINS… MIDWEST & E COAST: BUT ONLY WET AREAS IN CONUS OVER UPEPR PLAINS

COLD SWITCHES LOWER PLAINS AND EASTERN. MIDWST WARMS UP?

PLAINS/ MIDWEST DEEP SOUTH VERY DRY

WHY??

SUPER DRY OVER LOWER PLAINS TRHOUGH ALL DEEP SOUTH AND VA .... AND SUPER WET ...AGAIN ...OVER UPPER PLAINS

•WHY WAS DEC SO COLD?

The development of extremely large and intense GREENLAND BLOCK (call a -NAO in the wx biz) in the Jet stream... along with a huge RIDGE over central North Pacific … which caused a HUGE west coast ridge to develop and set up the very cold persistent pattern.

This pattern was NOT typical moderate/ strong LA NINA winter pattern we see over North America

Not much changed in the pattern. There was still large and intense GREENLAND BLOCK (call a -NAO in the wx biz) in the Jet stream... along with the strong a RIDGE western North America which made for a cold stormy pattern for Upper Plains/ Midwest / northeast US-- again NOT typical JAN pattern with a moderate/ strong LA NINA over North America

•WHY WAS JAN SO COLD?

WHY was DEC-JAN so cold & stormy FEB was NOT?

AO turned STRONGLY negative around NOV 20... ...at times SEVERELY negative... much like WINTER 2008-09... and held through all of DEC and JAN...then collapsed late in JAN... Turning strongly POSITIVE after FEB 2

WHY was DEC-JAN so cold & stormy FEB was NOT?

Like the AO … the NAO also turned Negative around NOV 20... Moderate to strongly Negative... much like WINTER 2008-09... and held through all of DEC and JAN...then collapsed late in JAN... Turning MODERATELY POSITIVE after FEB 2

•FEB 2011 … THINGS CHANGD....

Jet stream map from FEB 2 MIDWEST BLIZZARD

FEB 18 Jet stream map

NOTE the Trough is now over the Plains... and we have Ridge over the se states – OPPOSITE of what we saw in DEC- JAN

BLUE AREA over West coast= Trough .. NOT a Ridge … and RED are over Deep South is a Ridge … back in DEC / Jan that was a trough

Lets look at SOIL MOISTURE...

WHY? Soil moisture is the most overlooked aspect of seasonal forecasting...

large areas of saturated and drought regions can and DO influence the pattern

The 2/15/11 Drought map shows the largest & deepest drought for Mid FEB since 2000

Areas SOUTH of the DASHED LINE show DROUGHT areas and increasing trend for MORE dryness

VERY WET AREAS OVER LAST FEW MONTHS and weeks

The LARGE areas of SUPER WET regions in close proximity of large areas of Super DRY will lock in Mean storm track for most of the SPRING and enhance Velocities in both Polar and Subtropical jet stream .... enhancing severe wx threats for Midwest

•LA NINA 2010 - 11 •Does it stay strong or is it weakening ?

• LA NINA into the Summer..or does it dissipate completely ?

LA NINA DEC 2010

LA NINA JAN 2011

The pool of sub-surface COLD water is what was strng... so the La Nina stayed strong

EL NINO and LA NINA events are “fed” from the SUB SURFACE waters rising to the surface.

WEAKENING LA NINA IN THE SPRING 2011

By FEB 20... the LA NINA is weakening at a steady pace…

compare this map to the Jan 2011 map

WEAKENING LA NINA IN THE SPRING 2011

FEB 2 the large DARK BLUE area just below the surface was deep and large … 20 days later it is MUCH weaker ...

FEB 2 SUB SURFACE............... FEB 22 SUB SURFACE

WEAKENING LA NINA IN THE SPRING 2011

These graphs are from the ASSUIEs wx folks.. best in the world at tracking ENSO events... You can clearly see the recent bounce / WARMING of the La Nina event

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011

European model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. from the last 2 months... are in very strong agreement of steadily weakening La Nina through the Spring THEN holding as WEAK La Nina into the Summer 2011

JAN 15 ............................. FEB 15

LA NINA MATCHES FOR THIS SPRING ARE:

1956197119742008

BUT NOT 1988

QT weather already talking “ DROUGHT LIKE 1988” hype

CFS model forecasts for the Key ENSO region 3.4. is in very strong agreement with EURO of steadily weakening La Nina through the Spring ...THEN holding as WEAK La Nina into the Summer 2011

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011

IRI climate center charts over 20 various ENSO models : TREND is whats important. TREND is weakening La Nina..stays weak into Summer

PDO IS CLEARLY IN THE VERY COLDWATER PHASE or “NEGATIVE”

-PDO means trough on West coast & RIDGE over SE states . For Upper Plains & Midwest this makes for very active storm track & weather pattern but for Lower Plains / Deep South More dryness

MODELS CAN SEE INTO MID MARCH … AND THE DATA SUPPORTS THE MARCH FORECAST

Persistent West coast trough and se US ridge... so Lows track into Central/ Upper Plains then into Midwest... bypassing lower Plains / Delta

• SUMMARY SUMMARY • ANOTHER TOUGH SPRING… ANOTHER TOUGH SPRING…

• AAny “summer” forecasts issued in March/ early ny “summer” forecasts issued in March/ early April LIKELY to be wrongApril LIKELY to be wrong

• LA NINA is weakening BUT CURRENT data LA NINA is weakening BUT CURRENT data keeps 'WEAK” La Nina into Past June into keeps 'WEAK” La Nina into Past June into SummerSummer

• Lower Plains & Deep South DROUGHT WILL Lower Plains & Deep South DROUGHT WILL GET WORSEGET WORSE

• Best areas will be ECB / TN VALLEY Best areas will be ECB / TN VALLEY

• If the LA NINA holds on into JULY then If the LA NINA holds on into JULY then DROUGHT could expand into WCB and DROUGHT could expand into WCB and Lower ECBLower ECB

• Very active SEVERE WX season... Below Very active SEVERE WX season... Below Normal activities over Gulf coast states after Normal activities over Gulf coast states after MAY 1MAY 1

• OVERSEAS SPRING FORECASTS OVERSEAS SPRING FORECASTS COMES OUT NEXT WEEK COMES OUT NEXT WEEK

CHINA will likely have WEATHER CHINA will likely have WEATHER problems… so will UKRAINE / problems… so will UKRAINE / Western and RUSSIA and K-STAN Western and RUSSIA and K-STAN

• S AMERICA & AUSTRALIA LOOK S AMERICA & AUSTRALIA LOOK BETTER BETTER

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• column over at Agweb.comcolumn over at Agweb.com

• email: email: wxrisk@comcast.net

• SUMMER FORECAST SUMMER FORECAST Preliminary IDEAS APRIL 20 Preliminary IDEAS APRIL 20

• FINAL MAY 15FINAL MAY 15