What stories will impact people and the planet in 2013? Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO, presents his views for where the world is headed in international development, climate change, energy, sustainable business, natural resources, and more. What will be the big news stories? Who will be the change makers? And, why does it all matter? Celebrating its 10th anniversary, STORIES TO WATCH 2013 takes place on 15 January 2013 and welcomes media representatives, policymakers, business leaders, and consultants who want to know what trends will shape the world in the coming year. Find out more at http://www.wri.org/event/2013/01/stories-watch-2013
Air pollution: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/ (see also http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2011/air_pollution_20110926/en/index.html) Road accidents: http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease CO2 emissions: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/CO2REPORT2012.pdf Cement: http://ies.lbl.gov/iespubs/49097.pdf (1990) and http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/mcs-2011-cemen.pdf (2010) ***Cement: Nearly 60% of the global figure is from China – get source from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cement_production*** Forests: http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1757e/i1757e.pdf
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(US DOE, 2010; EU, 2012)
35 BILLION TONS (2012)
6 BILLION TONS (1950)
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS ON THE RISE
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.html 2009 to 2011: http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/PBL_2012_Trends_in_global_CO2_emissions_500114022.pdf
1 billion in 1990 2 billion in 2010 5 billion by 2030
(Photo: ben124/Flickr)
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Definition of middle class from Homi Kharas/OECD cited in McKinsey Resource Revolution report: Daily per capita spending of $10 to $100 in purchasing parity terms. Source: Dr. Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution, via http://www.reuters.com/middle-class-infographic Photo credit: ben124/Flickr http://www.flickr.com/photos/ben124/6974444470/in/photostream/
(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)
ARE WE RUNNING OUT? Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars)
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Food Energy Timber Fertilizers Metals and Minerals
(Photo: MC-Leprosy/Flickr)
ENERGY MIX 1
1 WHAT ENERGY MIX? 1.3 billion people without access to electricity
N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.
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$268.7BN (2012)
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BNEF_global_trends_in_clean_energy_investment_q3_2012_fact_pack.pdf, p. 3 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/clean-energy-investment-fell-11-as-governments-cut-subsidies.html
RENEWABLES | COUNTRIES WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
(REN21, 2012)
With targets Without targets Map is illustrative; see REN21 for full list of countries
CHINA LEADS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Renewable energy installed capacity
(Pew, 2012)
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China U.S. Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil
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http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_forweb_WhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012.pdf (figures for 2011 – look for update) China has led global investment since 2009 (Pew), accounting for a fifth of global investment. Chart for 2011: http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/publications/globaltrendsreport2012final.pdf Chart for 2009-2011: http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/financial_mechanism/long-term_finance/application/pdf/usher_9_july_2012.pdf (couldn’t find three-year data for Germany, Italy, and rest) Other: E&Y says China is the most renewable energy-friendly country in the world. http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Cleantech/Renewable-energy-country-attractiveness-indices_November-2012 Global wind power capacity has grown at an average of 25 percent per year over year the past five years, and solar PV has grown at a rate of 50 percent. http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/renewableenergy/ The global market for renewables will be worth trillions over the coming decades. According to the IEA, 60% of the new installed capacity between now and 2035 will be from renewables. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/factsheets.pdf, p.3 China has led since 2009 -- http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/29/china-leads-in-renewable-investments/, citing Pew
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CHINA’S GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT?
(IMF, 2012)
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/text.pdf, p. 195
18TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012 “We must fully implement the overall plan for promoting economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress.”
2. Will China make progress on its carbon trading pilots?
3. Will China develop its massive shale gas potential, which could in part displace its dependence on coal?
(Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr)
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Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/10816734@N03/6893619011/ Credit: World Bank Photo Collection Tianjin, China
(Photo: Alvise Forcellini/Flickr)
ENERGY MIX 1 AFRICA’S LIONS
3 “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA
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3 HOW WILL AFRICA’S LIONS GROW?
(IMF, 2012)
BOOMING ECONOMIES National GDP growth, 2007-2012
Ethiopia 8.9%
Equatorial Guinea
8.0%
Rwanda 7.5%
Sierra Leone 10.2%
Ghana 8.2%
Angola 9.2%
7.5%+ 5-7.4% 2.5-4.9% 0-2.4% Insufficient data
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Sub-Saharan Africa http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2002&ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=89&pr1.y=14&c=614%2C666%2C638%2C668%2C616%2C674%2C748%2C676%2C618%2C678%2C622%2C684%2C624%2C688%2C626%2C728%2C628%2C692%2C632%2C694%2C636%2C714%2C634%2C716%2C662%2C722%2C642%2C718%2C643%2C724%2C644%2C199%2C646%2C734%2C648%2C738%2C652%2C742%2C656%2C746%2C654%2C754%2C664%2C698&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=0&a=#download North Africa: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2002&ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=53&pr1.y=6&c=612%2C682%2C686%2C611%2C469%2C732%2C744%2C672&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=0&a= (Original had http://www.economist.com/node/21541008)
legislation, signed by President Rousseff impact the dynamics?
(Photo: Neil Palmer/CIAT)
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Presentation Notes
Dave will probably have the .idd file for the GFW logo
ENERGY MIX 1 AFRICA’S LIONS
3 “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA
2 GREEN INVESTMENT
5 THE WORLD’S FORESTS
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5 WILL GREEN INVESTMENT SURVIVE THE SQUEEZE?
(Photo: Francisco Diez/Flickr)
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Photo: Francisco Diez/Flickr http://www.flickr.com/photos/22240293@N05/3879038971/sizes/o/in/photostream/
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UNCERTAIN TIMES – RISK AVERSION Change in global GDP
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http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG 2012 estimate and 2013 and 2014 projections: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/EXTGBLPROSPECTSAPRIL/0,,contentMDK:20370107~menuPK:659160~pagePK:2470434~piPK:4977459~theSitePK:659149,00.html
(CPI, 2012; Bloomberg, 2012)
GLOBAL ANNUAL CLIMATE FINANCE
$1 tr
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2010-11
$364
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$364 billion: http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-2012.pdf, p. 4 $1 trillion: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/climate-goals-require-5-trillion-investment-by-2020.html
MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS | SEEDING NEW DEVELOPMENT
(UPS, Unilever, Johnson & Johnson)
CHANGING MINDSETS
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(Not official sources) Unilever: http://designmentions.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/screen-shot-2012-10-07-at-10-23-41-pm1.png http://www.hearttoheart.org/image/how-to-help/JJ-Logo-big.png Johnson and Johnsonhttp: http://www.hearttoheart.org/image/how-to-help/JJ-Logo-big.png UPS: https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/1349474676/ups-logo.jpg
NEW FINANCING STRUCTURES, NEW PLAYERS
(Photo: David Blaikie/Flickr)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
(Not official sources) Unilever: http://designmentions.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/screen-shot-2012-10-07-at-10-23-41-pm1.png http://www.hearttoheart.org/image/how-to-help/JJ-Logo-big.png Johnson and Johnsonhttp: http://www.hearttoheart.org/image/how-to-help/JJ-Logo-big.png UPS: https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/1349474676/ups-logo.jpg
WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will new funding
mechanisms emerge to de-risk the markets?
2. Will companies recalibrate risk and adopt longer-term perspectives?
3. Will new financing structures and new players emerge?
(Photo: Windwärts Energie GmbH)
(Photo: Barack Obama/Flickr)
ENERGY MIX 1 AFRICA’S LIONS
3 “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA
2 OBAMA AND CLIMATE CHANGE
6 GREEN INVESTMENT
5 THE WORLD’S FORESTS
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“The issue of climate change is one that we ignore at our own peril.”