stories to watch 2018 #stw17

WORLD ECONOMY DOING WELL

Photo: Rafael Matsunaga/Flickr

Dow Jones hits

25,000January 5, 2018

Global

GDP up

3.6%

POVERTY REACHES LOWEST RATE IN HISTORY

Photo: Maria Fleischmann/World Bank. Source: World Poverty Clock (projected)

38 million

people escaped

extreme poverty

2017: HOTTEST NON-EL NIÑO YEAR ON RECORD

Source: NOAA

2017: GLOBAL EMISSIONS RISE

Source: WMO

RECORD HURRICANES IN 2017

Photo: Flickr/Antii Lipponen

$135 billioninsurance payouts

FLOODING IN SOUTH ASIA

Photo: Flickr/CAN Europe

1,400 people killed

BIGGEST FIRES EVER RECORDED IN CALIFORNIA

Photo: Flickr/US Department of Agriculture

1.2 millionacres burned

SHAKE UP IN GEOPOLITICS

Photo: Flickr/European Council President

How Far Will Trump Go?

A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge?

Will Momentum on Climate Continue?

Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate

Momentum Toward Sustainability?

Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?

The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein?

HOW DID WE DO IN 2017?

Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr

INTRODUCING THE McVEGAN

Photo: McDonald’s

NEW DELHI POLLUTION “OFF THE CHART”

Source: US State Department

#1 ENVIRONMENTAL

HEALTH RISK

1 in 9 deaths

worldwide

Photo: Flickr/CIAT

BEYOND HUMAN HEALTH

Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection

AIR POLLUTION AFFECTS:

• Food production

• Solar energy output

• Climate change

WHAT TO WATCH:

Has China Turned a Corner?

Photo: Flickr/Jens Schott Knudsen

2017

Air pollution in Beijing

decreased by 20%

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will India Step Up Enforcement?

Photo: Flickr/CIAT

• National and city action plans

• Agricultural burning

• Cleaner fuel standards

Photo: Flickr/Kamilokardona

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will People Use Technology

to Demand Clean Air?

COLOMBIA

Purpleair monitors track

air quality in real time

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: Flickr/ZAMG

Sentinel-5P:

unprecedented detail

Will New Satellites Be a Game Changer?

RECORD OIL PRODUCTION

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

BIG OIL: 5 OF 12 TOP COMPANIES BY REVENUE

ENERGY DOMINANCE?

Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore

2018

U.S. to produce record

10 million barrels oil/day

BUT, DISRUPTIVE FORCES IN PLAY…

Photo: Flickr/American Tobacco Historic District

CAR COMPANIES…

Photo: Flickr/Ford Europe

Volvo, Ford, GM

announced

expanding EV fleets

GOVERNMENTS…

Photo: Flickr/NatalieMaynor

UK, France, Norway,

Netherlands:

No new gas cars by 2040

INVESTORS…

Photo: Flickr/RosieTulips

2017

155 shareholder resolutions on climate and sustainability

INSURERS…

Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection

AXA quits oil sands

…AND OIL COMPANIES STARTING TO RESPOND

Photo: Flickr/Jonah G.S.

SHELL and STATOIL

commit to reduce

emissions intensity

BP puts

$200 million

towards solar

EXXON agrees

to disclose

climate risk

WHAT TO WATCH:

Offshore Drilling: How Far Will It Go?

Photo: Flickr/JournoJen

17 Atlantic and

Pacific governors

oppose offshore

drilling

Florida taken off

list of states for

offshore drilling

Photo: Flickr/Kārlis Dambrāns

On deck:

Germany, China, India and California

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will More Governments Ban Gas Cars?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Development Banks

Drop Oil?

Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection

WORLD BANK:

No upstream oil & gas investment by 2019

WHAT TO WATCH:

How Will Saudi Aramco IPO Be Valued?

Photo: Flickr/RosieTulips

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Others Follow the World’s

Largest Pension Fund?

Photo: Flickr/JournoJen

NORWEGIAN PENSION FUND ($1 trillion):

Advised to divest from oil

Photo: Flickr/Martin Schachermayer

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Oil Companies Follow Through?

ONE ADMINISTRATION THAT WON’T…

Photo: US Environmental Protection Agency

• Clean Power Plan

• Vehicle Emissions

Standards

• Social Cost of Carbon

• Paris Agreement

BUT WE ARE STILL IN!

Photo: Flickr/David Yu

15U.S. states

455U.S. cities

1,700+U.S. businesses

THE WORLD IS MOVING AHEAD

THE WORLD IS MOVING AHEAD

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS NEED TO DECLINE RAPIDLY

Source: Carbon Crunch

Who Is Going to Lead?

Photo: Flickr/European Council

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: Flickr/Gustavo M

3.5%rise in CO2

in 2017

2018

Launch of

national carbon

market

WHAT TO WATCH:

Which Way for China’s Emissions?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Source: India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE); Bridge to India

Note: all year sin the chart are fiscal years: 1 April – 31 March

Will India’s Renewable Energy Growth Keep Pace?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will US Subnational Action Add Up?

Photo: Flickr/WRI

REPORT RELEASE

September 2018

NEW GLOBAL REPORT

September 2018

WHAT TO WATCH:

What Will the New Climate Economy Find?

Photo: Flickr/Matthew Paulson

September 12–14, 2018

San Francisco, CA

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will 2018 Summit Lead to More Action?

WHAT TO WATCH:

US Midterm Elections:

Who Comes Out on Top?

Source: US Today/ Inside Elections

435House

seats

34Senate

seats

36 Governors

WHAT TO WATCH:

Source: Citizens Climate Lobby

Will Bipartisan Support for Climate Grow?

62Members

of Climate

Solutions

Caucus

x 66

WHAT TO WATCH:

COP24: Will Countries Ramp Up Ambition?

Photo: Flickr/Kamil Porembinski

• Talanoa Dialogue

• Paris Rulebook

• Pre-2020 Issues

Photo: International Monetary Fund Follow

Photo: The Economist

THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL

Source: UNEP

THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL

Source: UNEP

THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL

Source: UNEP

A MASSIVE CHALLENGE

Source: UNEP 2017

A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES

Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines

A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES

Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines

A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES

Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines

NATURAL STRATEGIES ARE READY TO SCALE

2 billion hectares potential for

landscape restoration

DIRECT AIR CAPTURE & STORAGE

Photo: ClimeWorks

3 COMPANIES AT

THE FOREFRONT:

• Carbon Engineering

• ClimeWorks

• Global Thermostat

ENHANCED WEATHERING

Photo: Flickr/Michel G.

WHAT TO WATCH:

What Will the IPCC Report Say

About Negative Emissions?

Photo: Flickr/Takver

OCTOBER 2018

Global Warming of 1.5ºC

report launch

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Natural Approaches Attract More Investment?

Source: CS/WWF/McKinsey

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will the First Zero Emission Gas

Power Plant Work as Expected?

Photo: Net Power and CB&I

2017: LARGEST HUMANITARIAN CRISIS SINCE WWII

Photo: Flickr/Hugh Macleod / IRIN

83 million people needed

emergency food

assistance

FOOD: WATER’S BIGGEST CUSTOMER

Photo: Pixabay/Qui Nguyen Khac

Agriculture accounts

for 69% of global

water withdrawal

WATER RISK WIDESPREAD

Aquduct Water Risk Atlas

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA AT HIGH RISK

Source: Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas

2040: WATER STRESS ON THE RISE

Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas

33 countriesto face extremely

high stress

SYRIA’S WAR—PRECEDED BY DROUGHT

Photo: Flickr/U.S. Department of State

• 1.5 million rural Syrians

migrated to cities

• Climate change made the

drought 2–3X more likely

TROUBLED WATERS IN LAKE CHAD REGION

Photo: Espen Røst / Bistandsaktuelt

• Lake Chad has shrunk by

95% since 1960s

• 2.4 million people displaced

• Herder/farmer conflict rivals

Boko Haram threat

Will UN Security

Council Adopt

Climate Resolution?

Photo: UNAMID/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

WHAT TO WATCH:

How Will Countries

Manage New Mega-Dams?

Photo: Jacey Fortin

GRAND ETHIOPIAN

RENAISSANCE DAM:

• $5 billion project

• Africa's largest

hydroelectric dam

WHAT TO WATCH:

Cities Facing Water Crises?

Photo: Aloysius/Pixabay

Cape Town “Day Zero”

• April 2018

• 4 million residents’

taps run dry?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Integrated Data Lead to

Better Management?

Source: Aqueduct Food

WHAT TO WATCH:

Can the Data Revolution

Help Prevent Crises?

Resource Watch

Launching April 2018

THE OCEAN IN HOT WATER

• US EPA: Average Global Sea Surface

Temperature, 1880-2015

Source: US EPA

Over 30% of man made co2 emissions

CORAL BLEACHING CRISIS

Photo: Flickr/Oregon State University

50%of coral reefs lost

due to bleaching

Coral

bleaching

4xas frequent

than 1980s

DROWNING IN PLASTIC

Photo: Flickr/Susan White/USFWS

~9 million tons per year

More plastic than fish

in the ocean by 2050

FISHING BEYOND THE OCEAN'S LIMITS

Photo: Flickr/-JvL-

31% overfished58% fished to capacity

GROWING WAVE OF AWARENESS

JANUARY 2016

SDG14Life Below Water

Photo: Flickr/gpparker

1,400 Commitments

at The Ocean

Conference of the UN

UN Special Envoy

for the Ocean

JUNE 2017 SEPTEMBER 2017

WHAT TO WATCH:

Progress on Plastic?

Photo: Flickr/Jedimentat44

• 40+ countries have banned, restricted

or taxed use of plastic bags

• UN proposed ban on plastic in the ocean

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will New Leadership Emerge?

Photo: Flickr/floheinstein

January 22–26

Davos, Switzerland

Photo: Thomas Mues/Flickr

Key ocean assets worth

$24 trillion

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will a Blue Economy Narrative Take Hold?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will G7 Leaders Unite?

Photo: Flickr/European Council President

June 8–9

Charlevoix, Canada

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Negotiations Begin for

UN Treaty on the High Seas?

Photo: Flickr/Joanna Penn

Must protect 30% by 2030 to

achieve ocean sustainability

TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH:

Will Blockchain Help Green Supply Chains?

Photo: Flickr/Corey Templeton

TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH:

Will Tree-Planting

Drones Take Off?

Photo: BioCarbon Engineering

TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH:

Self-Driving Pizza Trucks?

TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH:

Does Utility-Scale Energy

Storage Catalyze Renewables?

Photo credit: hoesim

Source: Boston Dynamics

Robots?TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: