survey of upstate new york business leaders
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Survey of Upstate New York Business Leaders
Dr. Don LevyApril 16, 2014
www.siena.edu/sri
Siena Research Institute
Siena Research Institute
Political
Social and Cultural
EconomicClient
Political Polls: Statewide Issues
*Siena Political Poll Mar 2014**Siena Political Poll Feb 2014
***Siena Political Poll Oct 2013
Politicians*
Statewide Issues
58% 34%
40% 42%
Right Track/Wrong Direction*
63% 32%
43% 53%56% 40%
Hydrofracking*
Casino Gambling***
Gun Control*
Recreational Marijuana**
46% 43%
Economic Polls: Indicators
Index of Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Real Estate Sentiment Upstate Business Leader Sentiment
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0United States New York
Social and Cultural Polls
Civic Health Quality of Life Health: Tobacco and Public Health Issues
Leisure Time Technology
Client Services
Index of Consumer Sentiment
Jan-99Jul-99Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0 Index of Consumer Sentiment, U.S. and New York, 1999-Present
United States New York
Consumer Sentiment: Buying Plans
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*In July 2013, the wording was changed from “computer” to “consumer electronics like a personal computer, cell phone, television or tablet.
Cars/Trucks
Electronics*
Furniture
Home Buying/Improvement Plans
1/1/2
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Consumer Real Estate Sentiment
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
-55.0
-45.0
-35.0
-25.0
-15.0
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-18.8
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-30.9
-39.3-41.7
-19.6
-12.1 -6.8
5.1 6.4
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-38.9-30.0
-40.1-42.2
-36.7 -41.3-47.0
-50.8
-30.9
-24.1-21.0
-14.8
-4.8
7.2 12.2 3.1
35.332.5
35.1 33.1 31.4 30.7 31.5 29.233.4 31.2
28.4 22.923.1
20.1
12.56.8
Current Sentiment Scores2010 - 2013
Overall Current Sell Current Buy Current Thriving
Economic Polls: Trends
Gas and Food
Holiday Spending
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
21%
28%
30%
26%
27%
23%
28%
33%
34%
35%
38%
36%
34%
33%
13%
14%
12%
13%
12%
13%
13%
33%
23%
23%
23%
26%
29%
25%Under $300 $300 to $600 $600 to $1,000 $1,000 or moreHoliday Budgets 2007 – 2013
RecessionEffects
Is government more of the problem or more of the solution when it comes to the economic issues?
23%
13%
Solution
Don’t Know
64%
Problem
Jun-08Aug-08Oct-08Dec-08Feb-09Apr-09Jun-09Aug-09Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Apr-10Jun-10Aug-10Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Gas Food Gas & Food
Fiscal Condition of New York State
Aug-08Nov-08
Feb-09May-09
Aug-09Nov-09
Feb-10May-10
Aug-10Nov-10
Feb-11May-11
Aug-11Nov-11
Feb-12May-12
Aug-12Nov-12
Feb-13May-13
Aug-13Nov-13
Feb-140
102030405060708090
100
The Fiscal Condition of New York
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor
Attitudes Towards Taxes and Education
Eliminating corruption in state government
15%
Working to improve public education
28%
Ensuring New York is prepared for future natural disasters
4%
Reducing the state's tax burden on middle class families
25%
Improving the state's economic climate
25%
Siena NY PollNovember 2013
Thinking about those five issues which do you think should be the MOST important item on Governor Cuomo's 'to do' list?
Public vs. CEO View: Making NY Business Friendly
43%
45%
12%
Succeeded Had little effect DK/No Opinion
Do you think Governor Cuomo has succeeded in creating a business climate that helps New York State businesses be more successful or have his efforts had little effect?
Thinking specifically about New York and the relationship between the state government and businesses like yours, overall would you say the government of the State of New York is doing an excellent, good, fair or poor job of creating a business climate in which companies like yours will succeed?
8%
91%
2%
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor DK/No Opinion
Public CEO
Is NY Business Friendly?If You Had to do it All Over Again, Would You Locate in NY or Someplace Else?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
29% 65% 6%
New York Someplace Else Don't Know
Business Leader Index vs. ICS*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
78
39
8698 98
869592
70
86 86 82
10395
NYCEO ICS
*Chart includes data from statewide numbers (ICS) and compares to upstate numbers (CEO)
What Is The Upstate Business Leaders Study?
SRI conducted the seventh annual Upstate New York Business Leader Survey from October 21 – December 31, 2013.
SRI mailed surveys to all private, for-profit businesses with yearly sales approaching $5 million up to $200 million according to publicly available records. The surveys could also be completed online.
The survey broke down the businesses into the following industry categories:
Service Engineering and Construction
Manufacturing Wholesale and Distribution
Retail Food and Beverage Financial
SRI interviewed 651 CEO’s (up from 592 last year) of private for profit companies in Buffalo (30%), the Capital Region (24%), Rochester (29%) and Syracuse (14%)
27% 17% 19% 15% 12% 3% 6%
Business Leader IndexHow is the Index Compiled?
26%
46%
29%
Industry
30%
40%
30%
Current Future
23%
44%
33% 28%
38%
34%
New York
CEO Index
History of the Study
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
76.3
31.1
78.1
93.8 92.8
82.977.7
39.0
86.4
98.4 97.9
88.979.2
46.9
94.8
103.1 103.0
94.8
Overall Current Future
The Index ranges from an absolute low of zero to a high of 200. If equal numbers of respondents indicated “better” and “worse” on a series of questions the index would be 100. Therefore any score below 100 points demonstrates more respondents seeing and/or expecting things to worsen as opposed to improve.
Upstate New York Business Leaders Index 2007 - 2012
Business Leader Index: Cluster Analysis
Optimistic Business leaders in the optimistic group describe an economy in which they see improved conditions and expect better days ahead. 73% expect increasing revenues and 56% anticipate increasing profits. 63% will invest in fixed assets and 41% will enlarge their workforce.
Treading Water (Middle)Business leaders in the middle group are treading water. They tend to feel as though the economy is stable but do not anticipate improving conditions. 39% expect increasing revenues and 25% anticipate increasing profits. 53% will invest in fixed assets and 27% will enlarge their workforce.
PessimisticBusiness leaders in the pessimistic group feel as though conditions have worsened recently and expect further decline. Only 9% expect increasing revenues and 10% anticipate increasing profits. 37% will invest in fixed assets and 13% will enlarge their workforce.
31%
45%
24%
Business Leader Index Over Time
Business Leader Overall Confidence
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
94.6
113.6
100
113.8
91.4 9589
82.7
UpstateTotal
Industry Totals
Engi
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and
Bev
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Expectations for Growth in NYS EconomyLooking forward from today through next year... how would you describe your expectations for the economy in NY State?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
30%
34%
29% 29% 28%
36%
30%28%
Engi
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UpstateTotal
Industry Totals
Indices by Industry Over TimeEngineering & Construction Business Leaders Index
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Overall 41.2 84.4 98.4 87.0 86.3 113.6Current 44.6 79.2 92.6 86.1 89.9 113.6Future 37.7 89.6 104.2 88.0 82.7 113.6
Siena College Research Institute
Food & Beverage Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 28.4 65.2 90.5 91.0 94.2 100.0Current 22.7 56.5 78.6 81.9 78.3 104.8Future 34.1 73.9 102.4 100.0 110.1 95.2
Siena College Research Institute
Financial Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 38.5 88.6 113.4 109.4 93.6 113.8Current 17.3 84.1 108.3 104.7 95.7 117.1Future 59.6 93.2 118.5 114.2 91.4 110.5
Siena College Research Institute
Manufacturing Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 40.6 83.8 106.7 106.9 82.6 91.4Current 28.8 70.1 107.3 101.5 72.6 90.8Future 52.4 97.4 106.0 112.4 92.5 92.0
Siena College Research Institute
Retail Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 28.6 93.2 101.5 98.1 80.7 95.0Current 22.7 82.4 91.4 88.3 76.1 86.3Future 34.5 104.1 111.7 107.8 85.3 103.8
Siena College Research Institute
Service Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 46.5 89.7 92.9 99.4 86.9 89.0Current 35.6 85.5 91.3 93.9 81.1 88.0Future 57.4 94.0 94.5 104.8 92.7 89.9
Siena College Research Institute
Wholesale & Distribution Business Leaders Index 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall 36.0 86.3 88.2 95.6 88.6 82.7Current 28.9 75.0 78.2 92.9 82.5 77.6Future 43.0 97.7 98.3 98.2 94.6 87.8
Siena College Research Institute
Expectations: Revenue
3%
39%
36%
18%3%
Grow substantially Grow moderately Stay about the same Decrease moderately Decrease substantially
NY Overall Results
Now thinking specifically about your company, what are your expectations for revenue through the year 2014?
Expectations: Profit
2%
29%
38%
26%
4%Grow substantially Grow moderately Stay about the same Decrease moderately Decrease substantially
Now thinking specifically about your company, what are your expectations for profit through the year 2014?
NY Overall Results
Revenue/Profitability Expectations Over Time
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
40%
21%
30% 32%30% 30% 31%
51%
26%
35%
45%
40%38%
42%
Profit Revenue
Expectations: Hiring
Decrease
Remain about the same
Moderately increase
Substantially increase
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
12%
59%
27%
1%
NY Overall Results
Workforce Size Expectations Over Time
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
36%
19% 22%
27%23%
27% 28%
58%61% 62% 61%
65%
58% 59%
6%
20% 17%
12% 12%15%
12%
Expectations: Fixed Assets
NY Overall Results
Intend to Invest in Fixed Assets
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
52% 36% 12%
Yes No Don't Know
Internally generated funds Borrow from a financial institution Private equity Not sure0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% 57%
34%
2%7%
How Will Assets be Financed
Business Leader Views of Local MarketAnd continuing to consider the local market, are conditions locally improving, staying the same or worsening for
businesses in your industry?
15%
56%
30%
The Wholesale and Distribution industry believes local conditions are improving the least at 6%.
CEO Areas of Concentration
NY Overall Results
Please indicate which of the following are major areas of concentration for your firm now and through 2014:
CEO’s main area of concentration was Expansion of Existing Markets (33%)
Construction of new locations
Acquisition of new businesses
Technology innovation
Internal restructuring
New product lines
Entry into new markets
Growth in existing products
Expansion of existing markets
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
10%
11%
28%
28%
31%
37%
53%
61%
CEO Obstacles and Challenges
NY Overall Results
Availability of equity financing
Ability to obtain suitable financing
Foreign competition
Global political instability
Risk management
Existing U.S. competition
Human resources
Energy costs
Cash flow
Rising supplier costs
Adverse economic conditions
Taxation
Governmental regulation
Health care costs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
5%10%
12%15%
21%25%
27%31%
35%39%
55%67%
70%80%
Now thinking about other challenges that your company faces, which of the following are you concerned with:
CEO’s greatest area of concern was Government Regulation (23%)
CEO Attitudes Towards Government
NY Overall Results
8%
91%
Thinking specifically about New York and the relationship between the government and businesses like yours, overall would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, fair or poor job of creating a business climate in which companies like yours will succeed?
State Government Federal Government
3%
94%
3%
CEO’s single biggest issue for the Governor and Legislature to focus on is Spending Cuts (35%)
CEO Attitudes Towards Government
NY Overall Results
Of the following, what would you like to see the Governor and Legislature of New York focus on?
Don't know/Refused
(Vol) Workers compensation reform
(Vol) Reducing regulations
Increasing State Revenues through consumer oriented taxes
Other
Infrastructure Development
Ethics Reform
Business Development Incentives
Income Tax Reform
Spending Cuts
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
1%2%
4%6%
11%32%
39%43%
69%72%
CEO Attitudes Towards Government
NY Overall Results
For each of the following national proposals indicate whether you support it or oppose it?
Lessen Corporate Income Tax Deductions
Increase Federal Spending on Infrastructure
Repeal the Health Care Reform Legislation
Pass a Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment
Reduce the Corporate Income Tax Rates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
36%
47%
67%
78%
79%
NY Overall Results
If the Tax-Free NY plan were to be implemented, what type of impact do you believe it would have on your business?
How confident are you in the ability of the government of the State of New York to improve the business climate for businesses like yours here in New York over the next year? Are you…
CEO Attitudes Towards Government
15%
48%
37%
Not at all confidentSomewhat confident
Not very confident
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
34% 11% 49%
Positive Negative No Impact
Workforce Supply
NY Overall Results
51%44%
5%
Yes No DK/Ref
Is there an Ample Supply of Trained Local Workers?
Comparison of Workforce SupplyIs there an ample supply of local workers that are appropriately trained for your employment needs?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
51%
44%48%
68%
42%
54% 55% 56%
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UpstateTotal
Industry Totals
Percent that Responded “YES”
Quality of the Workforce
NY Overall Results
Writing skills
Realistic about compensation
Initiative
Verbal skills
Work ethic
Professionalism
Technical skills
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
22%
32%
32%
36%
37%
40%
43%
72%
66%
64%
62%
60%
57%
50%
6%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
7%
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor N/A
Index of Workforce Quality Overall
10 32
Poor Fair Good Excellent
1.1
1.1
1.21.3
Realistic About Pay
Work Ethic
Verbal
Professionalism
1.4
1.2
.9
Technical
Writing
Initiative
Index of Workforce Quality
Poor0
Fair1
Good2
Excellent3
Hiring Hiring: Workforce Ample Hiring: Workforce Not Ample
Writing Skills
Initiative
Realistic About Compensation
Work Ethic
Verbal Skills
Technical Skills
Professionalism
1.01.3
0.8
1.21.7
0.9
1.21.6
1.0
1.31.7
1.0
1.31.7
1.01.4
1.91.0
1.41.8
1.1
Attitudes Towards Local Market
NY Overall Results
Which Industry Sectors Will Have a Positive Impact on Your Geographic Area?
57% 56% 43%
NY CEO’s believe the sector that will have the single greatest impact is the medical industry (29%)
38%
33% 24% 12%
Technology Medical Education Manufacturing
Tourism Green Energy Transportation
Attitudes Towards Local Market
NY Overall Results
Local government support for business
Area where businesses can succeed
Consumer Confidence
Transportation Infrastructure
A place consumers want to live
Suitable Workforce
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
26%
27%
28%
52%
58%
65%
73%
72%
70%
45%
41%
34%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
1%
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor Don't know/Refused
Do You Expect the Affordable Care Act to Have a Positive, Negative or No Real Impact?
Affordable Care Act
NY Overall Results
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
6% 69% 22%
Positive Negative No Impact
Have you made any of the following adjustments due to the Affordable Care Act?
Affordable Care Act
NY Overall Results
Increasing benefits to retain employees
Reducing the number of hours current employees work
Hiring more part-time employees
Offering defined contribution health insurance
Decreasing benefits to cut costs
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
7%
18%
24%
28%
32%
Takeaways Panic is Over, NY is “Open for Business”
But, CEO’s ‘won’t get fooled again.’
2014: Slow cautious growth overall. Most optimistic poised to take off
Expect increasing revenues and profits with moderate investment
Soft Consumer Sentiment
Expect increasing revenues and profits with moderate investment
PROBLEMS
Sorting through the Affordable Care Act
Soft Consumer SentimentExpect
Growth in and related to Medical
Concentrate on Tech growth
Soft Consumer SentimentWill the Workforce be There?
Partner with Higher, Secondary Education to prepare workers of tomorrow
Combat Brain Drain with Quality of Life and the Quality of Local Opportunity
Lessening regulation?
top related