sustainable communities sa - presentation by professor peter newman

Sustainability: What it can mean for people and communities?

ByPeter Newman

Professor of SustainabilityCurtin University

The Sustainability Story

Mid 90’s to 2000’s

Economic Development

Environmental Protection and Improvement

Social Development

Ecological Economics

Community Health

“Sense of Place”

Sustainability

Sustainability in cities: reducing footprint whilst increasing liveability…

My niche…‘Oil vulnerability’ and ‘car dependence’….

….born out of the pain of the 1970’s oil crises

The Hubbert PeakSci Amer 1971

The Polycentric City. Walkable, green, smart centres linked by quality transit….

Community activist journey began in Fremantle in 1979… ‘the last train to Freo’

Corruption revealed

100,000 signatures on petition

We won!

Supplementary policies on traffic demand management, parking restrictions, congestion taxes…. can all help, but will be reduced to marginal exercises unless the structure of the city is addressed in terms of the relative speed of traffic compared to sustainable transport modes.

Then won three more times…7 mill pass/yr to 57 mill/yr in 15

years

1992 - Northern Suburbs Railway Now equal to 8 lanes of traffic….

Year Route Km

1982 42km

1983 63km

1993 92km

2004 96km

2005 100km

2006 172km

Total 172km

54 kms within freeway median

Opening of new Southern Railway90% approval ratings and already paid off.

Carrying 65,000 per day cf 14,000 on buses.

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Meanwhile the academic….Fuel Use Decreases as Density Increases

National and global model…$17 mill per km…. higher numbers from

Travel Smart suburbs!

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

iANNUALRA

ILBO

ARD

INGS

('000

s:Tr

ain

and

Tram

)

YEAR

Adelaide

Perth

Next phase light rail…• Click to edit Master text styles

– Second level• Third level

– Fourth level» Fifth level

The next phase in Perth….• Click to edit Master text styles

– Second level• Third level

– Fourth level» Fifth level

Perth: 21st Century CityFocus on the 13 big development projects

in Perth and show how they can be:

• Leading demonstrations of low carbon, renewable, green development

• Dense, mixed use centres made viable through light rail

• Financed by a new private-public mechanism that captures the value inherent in green, transit oriented development….Committee for Perth report.

INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIANation Building package – 55% urban rail….historic!

Adelaide’s electrification and Seaford extension like Perth’s northern and southern

rail lines

Why rail must continue to be the priority….

Peak oil has happened….

Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed Nature  481,433–435 26 January 2012

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Peak oil happened in 2008 in the economy… $140 per bl

September 15th 2008

Impact on cities?

• Some US suburbs collapsed in GFC

Global oil production has not risen for 5 years…

• Inexorable rise in oil price of 5% per year.

• Dramatic rise in 2008 revealing vulnerabilities of car dependent cities.

• Car use beginning to decline…

Car use growth trends in developed cities from 1960 to 2005 using Global Cities Database.

4 1 . 8

2 5 . 7

2 2 . 9

5 . 1

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 - 2 0 0 5

Pe

rce

nta

ge

av

era

ge

in

cre

as

e i

n c

ar

VK

T p

er

ca

pit

a

Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1990 – 2009,

index (1990 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Germany

Australia

United States

France

Japan

United Kingdom

Oil price shockand start of

crisis

Peak Car Use - US cities...

• 7 years of decline• $80 a barrel in

2004• Cities coming

back in…

1976-

77

1977-

78

1978-

79

1979-

80

1980-

81

1981-8

2

1982-

83

1983-

84

1984-

85

1985-

86

1986-

87

1987-

88

1988-

89

1989-

90

1990-

91

1991-

92

1992-

93

1993-

94

1994-

95

1995-

96

1996-

97

1997-

98

1998-

99

1999-

00

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

2005-

06

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Per Capita Private Travel by City

Sydney Melbourne

Brisbane Perth

Adelaide Canberra

Hobart Darwin

'000 Kms per capita by car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle Source: BTRE (2011): Australian Infrastructure Statistics Yearbook

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Per Capita Public Transport Travel by City

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Canberra

Hobart

Darwin

Kms per Capita

Source: BTRE (2011): Australian Infrastructure Statistics Yearbook

Annual vehicle miles per driver by age, USA, 1995, 2001, 2009

‘Cars are so yesterday: young and rich leave guzzlers behind’

From 2001 to 2009, the average annual number of vehicle-miles travelled by young people (16 to 34

year olds) decreased from 10,300 miles to 7900

miles per capita – a drop of 23 per cent.“From 2001 to 2009, young

people (16- to 34-year-olds) who lived in households with annual incomes of over $70,000 increased their use of public transit by 100 per cent, biking by 122 per cent, and walking by 37 percent.”

Shanghai 1990 and 2010• Click to edit Master text styles

– Second level• Third level

– Fourth level» Fifth level

1990’s - Flirting with the American model…

Rapidly filled…

So what can be done?

Shanghai Metro…12 lines, 273 stations, 420km covering 80% of metro area…

Built mostly since 2000; carries 8 million per day

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Global growth now in rail and first signs of declines in car use…

• 82 Chinese cities building metros and high speed rail between cities

• 14 Indian cities building metros• Middle east cities building rail for first

time

Economic waves

The next era of innovation….the Green Economy

Green Economy

Green economy symbol, Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul,

buried under freeway

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

⑥ ｰ 1 　 Cheonggyecheon Area after Restoration

(http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/)

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

History of innovation and energy…..

Next era of city building is REDUCED CARBON – green economy.

Water

Wood

Coal

OilRenewable

s& Gas

History of innovation and cities….Transport shapes

Each era changes the city form. Cities keep the best of that era and move on.Next era of city building ….

SHIP/WALK

STEAM

TRAIN

ELECTRIC

TRAINTRAM

CARTRUCKPLANE

ELECTRIC and

Renewable Gas

Vehicles & NMT

Superhighway

So what can communities do?

Communities hold all the cards….10 people focused on an issue can transform a city.

Government -regulations & infrastructure

Community-values &

visions

Market-goods & services

Sectoral Dimensions

The Sustainability Story

At home?

• Get out of that car, at least ensure only one car.

• Can save $750,000 over a lifetime by using one less car.

Vauban FrieburgEco-village with car-

free housing.

Vauban freedom...

Christie Walk Eco-Village, Adelaide.Strawbale apartments in central city; grey water to permaculture gardens; PV; no parking.

Will we get out of cars if given a bit of help?

TravelSmart from 1990’s….

Travel Smart

Walking School Bus

Walk/bike use increases productivity in workplace by 6%

Whole new profession created

of TravelSmart Officers

Consistent reductions in car use of around 15% - with 27% increase in muscle-powered transport... Creates culture of alternative transport.

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Tim Darby and Shani Graham

The Hulbert Street Story

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Transformation of a city…

Imagine the Possibilities

Photo Series: UrbanAdvantage