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System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products
University of Arizona
Holly Hartmann (hollyoregon@juno.com)
Ellen Lay
Damian Hammond
NWS Climate Prediction Center
Ed O’Lenic
Lloyd Thomas
Melissa Ou
Kenneth Pelman
Unique among stakeholders
Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics
Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics
Role of of climate information and projections in decision making
Common across many, but not all, stakeholders
Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products
Have difficulty placing information in context – “connecting the dots”
User Issues with Climate Information
Common across all groups: climate vs. weather
Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation
Understand implications of uncertainty vs. false certainty
Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill
Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise
• Transferability
• Scalability
• Changed decisions and decision processes
• Public support for climate research
Enabling system-wide change
Sustainability
Perspectives on Climate ServicesPerspectives on Climate Services
Principles for Public Sector Approach
Equity vs. Impact vs. Return on Investment
Responsiveness to evolving needs
Focus on Process as well as Products
Our Project: Activities on Multiple FrontsOur Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts
Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification
Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products
Easy Access: Information management portfolio
Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation
Issue: Approach Goal: Products & Process!
YR1
YR3
YR2
Issues for Stakeholders
- too much information
- can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information
Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users
Information Management: Collections of products from different sources stored in customer-based portfolios.
Save a history of work on each product, so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.
Report/Newsletter Generation
• create PDF reports of your product collections and analysis results for non-Internet users
• automatically includes provider-mandated legends, data sourcing, logos, contact information, caveats, explanations
• sections for intermediary’s value-added comments
1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & Decision Support System
Provider
Image
Provider
Image
Provider Text
Provider Text
Provider Text Your Text
Your Text
Your Text
Your Text
First application: CLIMAS Border Climate Summary - March 2007
1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & DSS
Synergistic growth in utility as more & more products link to portfolios & report.
We are actively seeking additional providers!
What Providers Get
- Control over ancillary content of products
- Maintain their ‘brand’ and image
- Track contextual use of products
What Intermediaries Get
- Can focus on adding value rather than accessing data
- Efficiency allows serving many more clients while hitting their individual needs
- Can maintain their ‘brand’ and image
- Interdisciplinary networking through group involvement in portfolio and report development
- Proprietary information can be included, securely
What Users Get
- Beginners benefit from experience of others, through access to pre-developed portfolios
- Capacity-building through group/team-managed portfolios and reports
- Customized translation by specialists of generic products
- Expert screening of ‘good’ information
1. CLIDDSS: Information Management and Newsletter Generation
1. How CLIDDSS Works
User’s computer has:Browser pointed to FET and
JDO Persistence Layer
Database
Database stores:• product states (not raw products)•All data except locally stored images/text
CLIDDSS Application
CLIDDSS Server
CLIDDSS SOAP Service
Product Submission SOAP Services
Apache Tomcat
FET Server
Product Retrieval SOAP Service(s)
•Product states, raw images/text•Provider Admin•Report Creation•Product Management
Product Component
Retrieval Requests: (submits a product’s
state)
Product Submission Request
Submitting Product State to CLIDDSS
Product Components
Return code
User Customized Report Template
Report can include: •Products•Images•Text
Hard drive stores:•PDF Report(s)•Locally saved images/text
Persistence Layer allows CLIDDSS to be easily moved from one database to another
Identify product Identify product components
- Supporting text
- Agency logo
- Selection criteria
Create a SOAP service for product Submit SOAP service WSDL file to
CLIDDSS developers Modify product HTML page to allow
users to request product submission
Create a product submission service for CLIDDSS based on submitted WSDL file
Send back product submission WSDL file and service location
Product provider’s work CLIDDSS Developer’s work
1. Steps to Become a Product Provider
Our Project: Activities on Multiple FrontsOur Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts
Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification
Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products
Easy Access: Information management portfolio
Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation
Issue: Approach
YR1
YR3
YR2
NWS Local 3-month Temperature Outlook
http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php
User-selected product formats
2. Many product formats for diverse users
2. User customization of products – building CPC capabilities
Our Project: Activities on Multiple FrontsOur Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts
Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification
Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products
Easy Access: Information management portfolio
Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation
Issue: Approach
YR1
YR3
YR2
Initially for NWS CPC climate forecastsNow L3MTO station forecasts, Alaska
Six elements in our webtool:• Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials• Exploring Forecast Progression• Historical Context• Forecast Performance• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
NWS Climate Services Division: Climate Focal Points at every WFO
3. http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
20042003 2005
3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Linking Past, Present, Future
http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
wet
dry
3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Verification
User-controlled evaluations
Move from simple to complex verification
Skill, data used to compute scores, paired forecast and observation map
Institute community software development framework: public, academic, private
• Version Control System
• Problem/Task Tracking System
• “Rules of the Road”
3. FET to CPC: not just a software transfer!
Our Project: Activities on Multiple FrontsOur Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts
Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification
Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products
Easy Access: Information management portfolio
Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation
Issue: Approach
YR1
YR3
YR2
Dynamic webtools conflict with federal, academic policies & practices • Prohibitions on user profiles, registration, dynamic process initiation• Requirements for complex and time-consuming webpage approval • Copyright restrictions preclude efficient knowledge transfer and use
Federal agencies and academia should adapt, too• Serve broad user needs for knowledge development & information management• Exploit evolving technologies• Facilitate rapid deployment of user-customizable webtools• Support ‘products’ over ‘prototypes’• Use Creative Commons to encourage applications by private sector & others
Past Recommendations • Researchers should adapt: conduct stakeholder-relevant research, develop applications, transition to operations• Decision makers should adapt: use advances in climate information and forecasts, incorporate uncertainty and probabilities, use risk management approaches
New Tools for Climate Services: Challenges
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