tap your inner futurist: a 21st century roadmap for ... 21st century roadmap for corporate real...
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Design by: Garry Golden Forward Elements, Inc
Tap Your Inner Futurist: A 21st Century Roadmap for Corporate Real Estate
www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012
Seminar Objectives
• To understand the fundamental applications of Foresight within institutional environments
• To explore emerging trends and issues likely to have an impact on professional development and corporate work environments
Documents: www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012
Preparing for Multiple Time Horizons, Multiple Outcomes
Expected future Past Present Plan A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario E
• Visioning • Planning • Goals –
Objectives - Actions • Metrics / Roadmaps • Evaluation • Iterative Planning
• Forecasts • Scenarios
• Horizon Scanning • Issues Analysis • STEEP Categories
Society Technology Economics Environment Politics
Identifying & Monitoring Change
Exploring Implications
Communicating Change
Fundamentals of Foresight
Trend Diffusion Frameworks
References Over Time
Degree of Public Awareness
Framing of Issues & Trends
Emerging Issues & Trends
Mainstreaming of Issues & Trends
Resolution / Plateau of Issues & Trends
Trends (Continuities)
Choices (Discontinuities)
Events (Discontinuities)
Plausible Future
Possible Futures
Preferred Futures
Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change
Forecasts
Scenarios
Visions
Place-based Experiences
Transportation & Energy
Foresight: The Front End of Innovation
The Changing Nature of Work
Entrepreneur •Ability to Anticipate & Adapt to Change (Seek Alternatives)
Manager •Ability to Assess & Measure •Leverage Diversity of People & Tools Leader •Ability to Communicate the Need for Change (Visioning / Storytelling)
De
pth
of
Sub
ject
Exp
ert
ise
Ability to Apply Broadly Across Situations & Disciplines
Become a T-shaped Individuals
Zappos Founder Tony Hsieh recently announced a $350 million development fund to revitalize areas of downtown Las Vegas to bring music, education, restaurants and cultural amenities near its new headquarters into the old City Hall.
True False
The visionary entrepreneur has leaked plans in a recent Esquire interview on –what the magazine is calling - Galactic Inner Space. The venture will focus on retreat centers aimed at individuals seeking to unplug and turn inward.
True False
The US Air Force is exploring the development of a Social Radar dashboard which would aggregate sensor and sentiment data from Facebook/Twitter, political polls, drones, relief worker reports, retail sales, and infectious disease alerts to identify potential tipping points in social behavior change. Social Radar Dashboard
True False
True False
Fuel cell startup Clear Edge Power has signed an agreement with Lowes to sell its refrigerator sized solid-oxide fuel cell to consumer markets via traditional retail channels in California, Oregon and Washington. The units will sell for $9,999 and provide continual electricity and heat (for water) using natural gas or propane as the fuel. Service contracts will be provided through regional utilities.
A team of Finish Engineers have created a new breed of indoor positioning technology that does not require WiFi or other beacons, but instead provides a unique signal by reference changes in the Earth’s magnetic field.
True False
In Bristol, Connecticut, a thousand people –self identified as Risers - are crowdsourcing a new 17-acre downtown for their city of 61,000 people. The collaborative project is being led by Long Island based developer Renaissance.
True False
True False
After beating two reigning Jeopardy champions in the Spring of 2011, IBM Watson is now gearing up for prime-time at work!
IBM has announced a roadmap to bring Watson to work – focusing on healthcare, financial services and customer service.
Era of Institution
Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work
Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy
Era of Apprenticeship
Era of Learner
How might work places evolve alongside the learner era?
Predictive What might happen..
Prescriptive What should happen..!
Descriptive What happened..
Work Experience Design = Prescriptive Data
‘Gaming Mechanics’ Design Principles: •Rules & Rewards •Quests & Challenges •Badges & Recognition (‘Level up’ Stages of Mastery)
•Reputation Management •Teamwork & Strategy •Continual Feedback
Experience Design = Novice to Expert Level Skills
=
What is the Case for Place?
• Gartner estimates that by 2014, some 70% of large companies will use the techniques for at least one business process.
• M2 Research estimates revenue from gamification software, consulting and marketing will reach $938 million by 2014 from less than $100 million this year.
• Place & Continuity of (Workplace) Learning • Place & Behavior Change Metrics • Place & Personal/Team Identity
Visitors wrap themselves in Tyvek at the Pacific Design Center (image: Post Modern Production)
The Art of Place-based Experiences
What is the Case for Place? • Designing ‘Third Place’ Elements • Placed-based Performance Metrics • Expanding Emotional Connection to Place • Preparing for Retrofit & Consumerization • Embracing Temporary Places
Place-based Experiences
Transportation & Energy
Foresight: The Front End of Innovation
The Changing Nature of Work
Incremental Innovation Within an Era
versus
Transformational
Innovation Across New Eras
Value Capture vs Creation
Performance over time S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras
?
Slow Change ‘Emerging’
Rapid Change ‘Accelerating’
Plateau of Change ‘Mainstreaming’
Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!
Eras of Mobility
Human / Animals
Cars
Boats
Planes /Rockets
What is next?
Rail
•Autonomous Vehicles
•Sub-orbital
2004
Emerging Roadmap for Technology Platforms
2007 2010 2015 2020
2030
2050
‘From Driver to Captain’
Traffic Jam Assist
Implications of ‘prime’ real estate?
Workplace attitudes without the pain of commute?
Telecommuters Return?
Eras of Manufacturing
Clay Stone Wood
Plastics
Copper Bronze Iron-Steel
Silicon
What is next? • Carbon Materials
(Nanoscale)
• Biomaterials
1990 2009 2010
2025
2030
2050
Characterization: Passive Nanostructures
Functionalization: Passive Nanostructures
Functionalization: Active Nanostructures
Nano-Materials for Energy: Coatings & Additives
Nanotubes
Nanosheets (Graphene)
Nanoparticles
What nano-enabled products might bring value to real estate?
What is the Case for Place? • Preparing for Transportation Discontinuities • Exploring Functional Nanomaterials
Faster Horse vs Automobile
Tellers vs ATM CDs vs Web
Looking for things that your users are not telling you they want or need?
Natural Gas & Distributed Power Generation + Clean Energy as Service
Strengthening Signals
Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation
Weak Disruptive Signals
Vision of Portable Fuels & Micro Energy
‘Power Plants’ $1 $10
$100 $1000
‘Unplugging’ Beyond the Grid / Fuel-based Power
First Order Implication
Second Order Implication
Third Order Implication
Blue Arrows: Opportunities
Financial (e.g. Investment, Revenue, Acquisition)
Market (e.g. Expanded Segmentations)
New Internal (e.g. Skills & Capacities )
New Behavior (e.g. More transactions)
Green Arrows: Constraints
Resources (e.g. Lack of; Higher Costs)
Offerings (e.g. Cannibalize existing offerings)
Market Size (e.g. Narrow Customer Segmentation)
Policy Change (e.g. New Regulation is Introduced )
Wild cards (e.g. Product recall)
When filling in implications, be sure to consider:
- Customer - Company - Co-workers
- New Product / Service - Change in Marketplace
Futures Implications Wheel
Possible Future: Portable Power
Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliances contain their own embedded power systems!
Market Signal to Watch
Apple tells Users to ‘Unplug’ Switches to fuel-based electronics
2015 China 5 year plan: Cut the cord Intel: Micro Fuel Cells on a chip
Utilities seek mergers; Ban on fuel packets
Energizer Bunny retires!
NatGas ‘packets’ increase earnings
Utility earnings fall under high maintenance costs
Texas Approves Home Construction without Wall Sockets
Walmart aims to be largest distributor of molecule fuels
Shale Gas Revolution Continues
Exxon Buys Reliant/NRG
2018 Time Magazine: Cordless Christmas
2020 - First utility sell portable fuels
Badges
Millennial Parents
Outputs to Outcomes
Learning Management
Systems
Behavior-Change Gaming Mechanics
Prescriptive Data ?
Big Data
Third Place
Aging Boomers
Learning More…
Personal Assistants
Building Organizational Foresight Capabilities
Ad Hoc Activities
‘Evangelists’ & Prototyping
Process & Culture
Tip #2 Follow Passionate People & Smart Conversations
Tim O'Reilly
Hans Rosling
Nancy Duarte
Neil deGrasse Tyson
Scan Hits per Month Tagged on
Set up a
Signals Team
Share with Staff ‘Best of’ Scan Hits
Measuring Outputs
Tip #3 Bring Structure to Horizon Scanning
How do we enhance our organizational culture by thinking beyond traditional hiring practices? How do we overcome tendency to hire people like us?! What are new positions we might create to future-proof our talent pool?
Tip #4 Hiring People: Not Like Us! & Creating New Positions
Following the success of HP’s Chief Innovation Officer Phil McKinney, generate a weekly ‘Killer Question’ email message or ‘Twitter’ conversation that spurs conversation about the future of corporate real estate.
Tip #5 ‘Killer Questions’ to Brainstorm Ideas
Garry Golden www.garrygolden.net garrygolden@gmail.com (Two R’s) 347-463-7412 www.garrygolden.net/CoreNet2012
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