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TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
The Banks Association of Turkey
Turkish Banking System
Ersin Özince
Chairman
London, October 2005
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
OutlineOutline
Economic outlookEconomic outlook• Economic policy frameworkEconomic policy framework
• Main features of the economyMain features of the economy
• Main targets of the economic policyMain targets of the economic policy
• Short term outcomesShort term outcomes
• Expectations for the near futureExpectations for the near future
Turkish banking systemTurkish banking system• Main issues affecting banksMain issues affecting banks
• Operational environmentOperational environment
• Towards stronger banking systemTowards stronger banking system
• Short-term outcomes and selected indicatorsShort-term outcomes and selected indicators
• Expectations for the near futureExpectations for the near future
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Economic outlook
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Economic Policy FrameworkEconomic Policy Framework
•Turkey is an open economyTurkey is an open economy
•Capital flows are freeCapital flows are free
•No exchange rate restriction, No exchange rate restriction, under floating exchange rate regimeunder floating exchange rate regime
•Signed the Signed the “C“Customs ustoms UUnionnion”” with the EU with the EU in 1995 in 1995
•The EU’s economic criteria The EU’s economic criteria regarded asregarded as the the nominal anchornominal anchor
•Turkey is closer to EU membershipTurkey is closer to EU membership
•The stand-by agreement with the IMF extended untilThe stand-by agreement with the IMF extended until 20082008
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Main features of the economyMain features of the economy•Population of 72 millionPopulation of 72 million with with GNP USD 325 billion and income per GNP USD 325 billion and income per capita USD capita USD 44,500,500
•Long term average growth rate is about 5 percentLong term average growth rate is about 5 percent
•Domestic Domestic consumptionconsumption with 70 percent of total demand is the main with 70 percent of total demand is the main force behind the growth force behind the growth
•Services and industry have shares of 58 percent and 30 percent Services and industry have shares of 58 percent and 30 percent
•Unemployment rate is about 1Unemployment rate is about 100 percent percent
•Foreign trade Foreign trade volume volume amounts to 55 percent of GNP. Exports and amounts to 55 percent of GNP. Exports and imports amount to USD imports amount to USD 7070 billion and USD billion and USD 110110 billion billion
•The main trade partner is EU with 50 percent shareThe main trade partner is EU with 50 percent share
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Main targets of economic policyMain targets of economic policy
•Setting stable rules and institutions eliminating discretionary Setting stable rules and institutions eliminating discretionary measures for well functioning market economymeasures for well functioning market economy
•Undertaking fiscal responsibility, focusing to reduce debt to GNP Undertaking fiscal responsibility, focusing to reduce debt to GNP ratio through primary surplus ratio through primary surplus
•Channelling sources to private sector, Channelling sources to private sector, sustaining stable growthsustaining stable growth at at annual rate of 5 percent, annual rate of 5 percent, focusing on reducing focusing on reducing inflation inflation and and reachingreaching price stability price stability
•Improving fImproving fiscal transparency and iscal transparency and ensuring ensuring better managementbetter management in in the public sector, ithe public sector, increasing role of private sector and foreign ncreasing role of private sector and foreign capital inflowscapital inflows
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Main targets of economic policyMain targets of economic policy
•StrengtheningStrengthening ffinancial sector inancial sector
•Reaching sustainable stability through structural reforms; Reaching sustainable stability through structural reforms; social social security, widening tax base, bankruptcy law, central bank and security, widening tax base, bankruptcy law, central bank and regulatory and supervisory institutions’ autonomyregulatory and supervisory institutions’ autonomy
•Meeting EU main economic criteria by 2008Meeting EU main economic criteria by 2008
•Leading Turkey to become a global playerLeading Turkey to become a global player
•Stronger institutions and rules for market economyStronger institutions and rules for market economy
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Short-term outcomesShort-term outcomes
•Quick recovery in growth led by private sectorQuick recovery in growth led by private sector
•Strong fiscal adjustment, sharp decline in inflationStrong fiscal adjustment, sharp decline in inflation
•Less pressure from the Government on the financial marketsLess pressure from the Government on the financial markets due to due to decline in gıvernment deficitdecline in gıvernment deficit
•Stability sustained in money and capital markets; Stability sustained in money and capital markets; a substantial a substantial fall fall in the cost of borrowing and real interest ratesin the cost of borrowing and real interest rates
•StrongStrong TL demand and strengthened financial institutions TL demand and strengthened financial institutions
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Short-term outcomesShort-term outcomes
•Rapid growth in CB reserves and improvement in fx positionRapid growth in CB reserves and improvement in fx position
•Jump in lending to private sector and consumer loansJump in lending to private sector and consumer loans
•Expanding Expanding volume of foreign tradevolume of foreign trade
•Widening current account deficitWidening current account deficit
•Foreign investors’ interest on TL assets as well as the banking Foreign investors’ interest on TL assets as well as the banking sector sector
•Acceleration in privatisationAcceleration in privatisation
•Strengthening rating outlooks from B- to BB-Strengthening rating outlooks from B- to BB-
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Expectations for the near futureExpectations for the near future
Should current program successfully implemented, Should current program successfully implemented, macroeconomic aggregates macroeconomic aggregates are are likely to approach to likely to approach to Maastricht criteria in a few years. Maastricht criteria in a few years.
Thus, Thus, an atmosphere for an atmosphere for well functioning of market well functioning of market economy economy is is likely likely to be further improved.to be further improved.
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
According to the Government programme public sector deficit targeted to receed to 3% of GDP by 2008
95 . . . . '00 . . . . '05 . . '08
0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9
-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20
Turkey EU-15
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Inflation is down 4 percent in 2008
Inflation
95 . . . . '00 . . . . '05 '080
25
50
75
100
Turkey EU-15
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Government debt is likely to meet EU level in 2008
95 . . . . '00 . . . . '05 . . '08
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Turkey EU-15
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Turkish Banking System
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Main issues affecting banksMain issues affecting banks•Since 2002, banks Since 2002, banks have been operating in a considerably less risky have been operating in a considerably less risky atmosphereatmosphere
•Decline in inflation and strong demand for TL stimulated the Decline in inflation and strong demand for TL stimulated the competition and restructuring the balance sheetcompetition and restructuring the balance sheet
•Governments pressures on financial markets lessenedGovernments pressures on financial markets lessened
•Regulation likely to meet the international standarts, notably to EU Regulation likely to meet the international standarts, notably to EU directivesdirectives
•Supervision strengthened Supervision strengthened
•Better expectations and vital activity stimulated consumer businessBetter expectations and vital activity stimulated consumer business
•Foreign investors’ interest intensifiedForeign investors’ interest intensified
•Basel II road map was announcedBasel II road map was announced
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Operational environmentOperational environment•Banks subject to Banking Act in their universal activities and to Banks subject to Banking Act in their universal activities and to Capital Market Act in capital market activitiesCapital Market Act in capital market activities
•Banking Regulation and Supervisory Board is an autonomous Banking Regulation and Supervisory Board is an autonomous authority of the banking sector since 2000. authority of the banking sector since 2000.
•No discretionary regulation for foreign banks operating in TurkeyNo discretionary regulation for foreign banks operating in Turkey
•Regulatory capital for establishment of a bank is currently about Regulatory capital for establishment of a bank is currently about USD 15 millionUSD 15 million
•Financial sector is small and has low degree of deepening Financial sector is small and has low degree of deepening
•Despite gradual improvement, deposits have very short term Despite gradual improvement, deposits have very short term maturitymaturity
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
•Traditionally banks occupy majorityTraditionally banks occupy majority, 95 %, 95 % of financial of financial sectorsector
•Financial services subject to various heavy tax burdensFinancial services subject to various heavy tax burdens increasing intermediation cost dramatically, although increasing intermediation cost dramatically, although some positive steps taken recently some positive steps taken recently
•The share of fx or fx denominated items in the balance The share of fx or fx denominated items in the balance sheet still high albeit shrinking recentlysheet still high albeit shrinking recently
•High techonology utilization on servicesHigh techonology utilization on services
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Towards stronger banking systemTowards stronger banking system•An independent regulatory and supervisory body was founded
•Weak banks Weak banks were were eliminated, remaining banks were recapeliminated, remaining banks were recapitiitilizedlized
and restructuredand restructured
•Regulation changed in line with the international standards; Regulation changed in line with the international standards;
RReporting, auditing and transparency improvedeporting, auditing and transparency improved
PrudentiPrudentialal regulations on related party loans, fx position regulations on related party loans, fx position and equity participations, provisioning tightened and equity participations, provisioning tightened
Supervision incorporated market riskSupervision incorporated market risk
•BBanking anking AAct ct is on the pipe-lineis on the pipe-line
Banking Law No. 5387(adopted by the Parliament )
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
General Legal Grounds
• Enhanced legal structure for changing and developing banking activities and risks
• Dynamic structure for bank supervision and auditing activities
• Harmonization of the Banking Law with EU directives, international principles and standards
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Scope of the Banking Law• deposit banks
• contribution banks
• development and investment banks
• financial holding companies
• Title of special finance institutions is changed as contribution banks, • The scope of the Banking Law is enlarged to cover financial holding companies, Banks
Association of Turkey, Turkish Association of Contribution Banks, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA), Saving Deposits Insurance Fund (SDIF) and their activities,
• Provisions related to supervision and audit of support services institutions and valuation and rating institutions by BRSA are brought .
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Definitions
• In harmony with international banking terminology the definitions in the Law are redefined, the new definitions added
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Permissions for establishment and operation
- fields of banking activities are classified in line with the EU directive
- the principles and procedures that are applicable for permission applications and granting permissions are determined extensively as a part of prudential supervision
- the conditions sought for the bank founders are harmonized with EU directives and BIS principles
- principle is brought to give legal reasons for refusal of applications for authorization
- the paid-up capital requirement is increased to min. TRY 30 million for credit institutions, TRY 20 million for development and investment banks.
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Corporate governance
• In parallel to international principles, the provisions related to corporate governance principles are set out
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Supervision and Audit
• integrity of on-site supervision and audit activities
• independent audit, internal audit, internal control and risk management in line with the international practices
• principles of on-site supervision and audit to be determined by Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA)
• all activities including IT systems subject to audit process
• risk-based approach in bank supervision
• audit performed in a consolidated and coordinated manner
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Protective Provisions
• All the limitations and standard ratios shall be considered on a consolidated basis
• Shareholders equity shall not be less than the paid-in capital.
• In case the limits and standard ratios set in the Law are reached or exceeded, the relevant bank shall promptly inform the BRSA
• Provision related to the minimum liquidity regulation to be set by BRSA is brought
• Loan definition is broadened (bails, avals, receivables incurred from reverse repurchasing transactions, financial leasing receivables)
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Legal Obligations
• Banking secrecy
• Customer rights
• Ethical principles
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Limits
• Limits on loans to a real person or legal entity or a risk group are fully harmonized with the EU directives
• Banks are prevented to transfer their funds to close the budget deficits of their funds and foundations
• Provisions dealing with donation limits and hidden transfer
of earnings are added
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Deposit Insurance
In conformity to the practices in the EU;
the deposit banks are required,
• to take out insurance cover only for the part of the deposits held with them subject to insurance.
• to pay saving deposits insurance premiums over the sum insured as above
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Measures against systemic risk
• In case of determination of a systemic risk danger as a result of joint evaluation by the Fund (SDIF), the Treasury Undersecretariat and the Central Bank under coordination by the BRSA, the Council of Ministers is authorized to identify, take and impose extraordinary measures and actions
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Exclusion from the banking system
• BRSA has administrative and financial autonomy so as to ensure exclusion from the banking system of the institutions which fail
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Short-term outcomesShort-term outcomes•Strengthened confidence in the banking sector and rating outlooks
•Banks gradually adopting to changing environment; disinflationBanks gradually adopting to changing environment; disinflation and recoveryand recovery are likely are likely support the sectorsupport the sector
•Full quarantFull quarantee ee on deposits limitedon deposits limited
•Improvement in asset quality; NPLImprovement in asset quality; NPLss’ contained and highly ’ contained and highly provisionedprovisioned
•Regulatory capital requirements met, economic and working Regulatory capital requirements met, economic and working capital capital began to rise began to rise
•Earnings less dependent on windfall and inflationary gain from the Governmet securities as interest margin and income from fees and commission increased
•Improving return on equity Improving return on equity is is likely to encourage capital growthlikely to encourage capital growth
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Short-term outcomesShort-term outcomes•Higher lending tendency to private sector
•Risks arising from Risks arising from fx and interest rates lowered but maturity gap fx and interest rates lowered but maturity gap is is still importantstill important
•Foreioreiggn banks’ share increasingn banks’ share increasing
•Concentration riseConcentration rise
•Risk management improvedRisk management improved
•Foreign borrowing accelerated
•Banks’ market capitalisation jumped
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Reduced pressure on financial sector; demand from non-banks investors, notably from foreign investors
2002 2003 2004 2005*As % GNPDomestic debt 55 54 52 52Domestic debt/M2YRF 106 118 110 104Deposit banks G-securities 14 27 27 27Non-banks residents G-securities 11 14 15 13Foreign investors G-securities
* As of August
1 1 3 5
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Upward trend in TL deposits and loans, notably to households
27.12.02 26.12.03 31.12.04 02.09.05As % of GNPDeposits 52 45 46 48TL deposits 22 23 26 29Loans/deposits 38 43 52 59Loans 20 20 24 28 Consumer loans 1 4 4 5 Credit cards 1 4 4 3
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Substantial change in the structure of financial assets; share of TL monetary assets and equities up
Financial assetsAs % of GNP 2002 2003 2004 2005 II
Monetary assets 50 43 43 44
TL 23 24 25 28
Fx 26 19 18 16
Securities (private sector) 21 27 31 31
Equity 21 27 31 31
Securities (public sector) 55 55 53 53
Bonds 41 47 45 45
Treasury bills 14 7 7 7
Investment funds 2 4 4 4
Total 127 128 131 132
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Total assets grew rapidly in USD terms but remained almost the same as % of GNP
Total assets
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0
50
100
150
200
250
300USD billion
0
20
40
60
80
%
Total assets As % of GNP
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Dramatic decline in number of banks
Number of banks
80 85 90 95 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J05
10152025303540455055606570758085
Total Private dep banks
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Number of branches began to rise in private banks
Number of branches
80 85 90 95 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
A steady increase in number of employees, notably in private banks
Number of employees
80 85 90 95 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J100
120
140
160
180
200thousands
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Asset size getting larger
Bank total asset size
USD billion/number 99 '01 '02 '03 04 05 J40+ 1 130-40 1 220-30 1 1 1 2 2 210-20 1 5 5 4 4 25-10 6 2 1 1 4 51-5 19 10 12 13 11 100,5-1 11 4 5 3 1 2- 0,5 43 28 26 26 25 24Total 82 50 50 50 48 48
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Large banks increase their market share
Concentration80 90 '00 05 J
First five*Asset 63 54 48 61Deposits 69 59 51 65Loans 71 57 42 54First ten*Asset 82 75 69 84Deposits 88 85 72 89Loans 90 78 71 78* according to asset size
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Structure of the banking system
Market structureJune 2005 Banks Emloyment Brances Assets Loans Deposits
% share % share % share
Deposit banks 35 125.416 6.034 96,5 94,1 100 State owned 3 39.080 2.039 32,5 19,9 39,5 Private 19 79.870 3.786 60,1 69,3 57,1 Fund 1 401 1 0,5 0 0 Foreign 12 6.065 208 3,4 4,8 3,4Non-deposit taking banks 13 4.471 19 3,5 5,9 0
Total 48 129.887 6.053 100 100 100
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Higher share of loans in the total assets
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Liquid a Securities Loans Permanent a Others
Breakdown of assets
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Breakdown of loans (%)
2002 2004
Exports 19 14Working 16 19Consumers 5 13 Housing 1 3 Automobile 1 4Credit cards 9 14Investment 8 6Others 41 27Total 100 100
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Rising shares of TL deposits and equity in liabilities
Breakdown of liabilities
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TL dep. Fx dep. Non-deposits funds
Shareholders equity Others
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Increase in TL assets in total assets and..
TL, fx assets in total assets
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TL Fx
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
...TL sources in total liabilities
TL, fx liabilities in total liabilities
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TL Fx
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Rather stable fx position; met the requirements
Fx position* (Fx assets-fx liabilities)
* excluding fx indexed assets and liabilities
88 90 95 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 June
0
5
-5
-10
-15
-20
USD Billion
Sector Including fx indexed
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Stronger capital; thanks to the restructuring program and economic recovery
Shareholders' equity
'99 '03 '04 05 J
0
10
20
30
40USD billion
0
5
10
15
20%
Shareholders' equity As % of t assets State-owned Private
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Working capital improved rapidly
Free capital*
* Shareholders' equity+current year net income-permanent assets
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J
0
5
10
15
20
-5
USD billion
Sector State-owned Private
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
More radical reporting for NPLs, higher provisions and strong demand for loans
NPLs
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7USD billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6%
Before provisions After provisions As % of total assets (net)
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Permanent assets share in total assets coming down
Permanent assets*As % of total assets
* Fixed assets+equity participations+subsidiaries+NPLs
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16%
Sector State-owned Private
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Recovery in profitability
Return on assets (%)
Figures in 2001-2004 are according to inflation accounting
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J
0
2
4
6
-2
-4
-6
-8
Sector State-owned Private
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
From losses to sustained profitability; likely to encourage investors
Return on equity (%)
Figures in 2002-2004 are according to inflation accounting
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 J
0
20
40
60
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
%
Sector State-owned Private
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Sustained improvement in efficiency
Selected efficiency ratios, sector
2002 2003 2004 2005 June
Net interest margin/total assets %2.75 %3.90 %4.87 %4.38Expenses/total assets %4.56 %4.27 %3.59 %3.42Retun on banking activities -%1.81 -%0.36 %1.27 %0.96
Expenses/Income (ecluding divident) %65.35 %53.36 %48.70 %50.34Expenses/Income (including divident) %63.23 %52.45 %47.55 %49.02
Return on assets (before tax) %1.65 %3.22 %2.97 %3.56Return on assets (after tax) %1.11 %2.25 %2.11 %2.50
Return on shareholders' equity (before tax) %13.66 %22.65 %19.81 %25.58Return on shareholders' equity (after tax) %9.17 %15.79 %14.05 %17.96
* 2005 June simply annualized
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Selected ratiosSector
02 03 04 05 JCapital adequacyShare holders' equityAs % of risk weighted assets 24 31 29 26As % of total assets 12 14 15 14Free capital 2 6 8 7As % of total assets
Asset quality (%)Securities portfolio 41 43 40 39Loans/total assets 27 28 34 37Non performing loans (ap)/total loans 6.6 1.4 0.7 0.6Provisions for NPL 64 89 88 88Permanent assets/total assets 10 8 7 7
Liqudity (%)Liquid assets/total assets 34 39 37 38Liquid assets/short term liabilities 75 81 84 80
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Positive developments in the banking system positively reacted by the investors
Market capitilization of financial institutions (shares are traded ISE, (USD million)
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
01 02 03 04 05 June
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Rapidly growing numbers of credit and debit cards
Selected inditacorsThousands 2002 2003 2004
ATMs 12 13 14POS machines 496 662 912Credit cards (1000) 16 20 27Debit cards (1000) 35 40 43
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
ExpectExpectations for theations for the near future near future
•Larger and deeper financial markets
•Lengthening the maturities
•Higher lending to private sector
•Sufficient earnings to feed capital
•Decline in margin with widening business activity
•Positive atmosphere for foreign investors
•Intense competition on behalf of depositors and borrowers
•Improvement in transparency and accounting rules for better financial system
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Total Assets
80 85 90 95 '00 '01 '02 '03 '040
50
100
150
200
250USD billion
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Total assets As per. of GNP
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Substantial growth during the last years
Selected figures of deposit banks
USD 80 00 05 II
Shareholders' equity per bank 16 101 873
Assets over branch 2.854 18.963 40.427
Assets over employees 136 898 2.044
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Still low degree of banking on the basis of inhabitants
Selected figures of deposit banks
(for inhabitants) 80 00 05 II
Number of banks (for 1000 inha) 1.111 1.105 2.051
Number of branches 7.471 8.636 11.899
Number of employees 356 409 602
Assets (USD) 382 2.196 3.397
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
Approaching the emerging markets average, substantially low compared to developed
countries
Selected financial indicators(2003, as % of GDP)
World avg. EU Emerging Turkeymarkets
Bank assets* 112 173 78 72Capital markets 230 233 84 86 Shares 86 74 47 29 Bills and bonds 144 159 37 57 State 56 60 23 57 Private 88 99 15 0Total 342 405 162 158
Source: Global Financial Stability Report, Spt 2004
TBA Turkish Banking System October 2005
High growth potantial compared to EU-15
EU 15 and Turkey; selected indicators As % of GDP, 2003
EU-15* TurkeyBanking system Assets 281 73Deposits 98 47Loans 128 20Housing loans 40 1Total consumer loans 8 4
Income per capita (euro) 24.324 2.999Assets per capita (euro) 68.361 2.010
Capital markets Equities 74 29 Bonds and bills 159 57* Average
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