teaching a course on government statistics in a university statistics department

Teaching a Course on Teaching a Course on Government Statistics in a Government Statistics in a University Statistics DepartmentUniversity Statistics Department

Patrick Murphy

University College Dublin

Ireland

Outline of TalkOutline of Talk1. Introduction

2. Background: Department & Students

3. Course Development

4. The Course: Content

5. The Course: Presentation

6. Assessment

7. Students’ View

8. Lessons Leaned/Alterations

9. Conclusions

IntroductionIntroduction

STATISTICIANS:STATISTICIANS: Who are we?Who are we?

ACADEMIC Statisticians OFFICIAL Statisticians

INDUSTRY Statisticians

Introduction

COLLABORATION?COLLABORATION?

Academics <--> Industry

Academics <--> Official Statisticians

8 Academics

7 have collaborations with Industry

UCD Statistics:

Introduction

““Statistics”Statistics”

“Facts for the use of the State”

“State Arithmetic”

Fe26

Definition now slightly IRONIC

Introduction

Graduate EmploymentGraduate Employment

National Statistical Offices are significant Employers of Statisticians

Ireland: Central Statistics Office Small NSO But largest employer of Statisticians in Ireland >70 Permanent Statisticians

Consider...

Introduction

Training for such GraduatesTraining for such Graduates

Statistics, Mathematics

Economics, Social Science, Politics

What about specific training in Official Statistics?

Introduction

Graduate Training continued...Graduate Training continued...

1999 Web search of Universities revealedUniversity of Southampton, UK

MSc in Official StatisticsMonash University, Australia

Later I discoveredUniversity of LjubljanaUniversity of Helsinki

Introduction

Real Official Statistics TrainingReal Official Statistics Training

“On the Job”

From International Organisations

– Training of European Statisticians

TES Institute– International Monetary Fund

Introduction

Background:Background:Department & StudentsDepartment & Students

University College DublinUniversity College Dublin

Largest University in Ireland>20,000 StudentsDepartment of Statistics formed in 19868 full time Academic members

Background

Statistics’ StudentsStatistics’ Students

– Approximately 120 Students

Arts – 3 years combined with another subject

Science – 4 year single honours degree or – 4 year joint honours with another subject

Background

Level 1 Statistics:

Degree through Arts or Science Faculties

Final Year Undergraduate Final Year Undergraduate Courses included:Courses included:

Time Series Survey Sampling Design and Analysis of Experiments Survival Analysis Bio-statistics Actuarial Statistics Regression Theory Non-Parametric Statistics

Background

Higher Diploma in StatisticsHigher Diploma in Statistics One year graduate diploma Conversion course for graduates of cognate

disciplines e.g. Psychology, Politics, Economics, Computer Science

Background

M.Sc., M.A.M.Sc., M.A. One year taught Masters Degree Available to Students with a good honours

degree in Statistics, Mathematics or Actuarial & Financial Studies

Course Course DevelopmentDevelopment

Course Development 1: GoalsCourse Development 1: Goals

To provide students with an appreciation of the extent to which Official Statistics pervades the lives of citizens of a state

To describe the process by which data are collected, processed, analysed and disseminated by an NSI

To introduce some techniques used extensively in NSI’s that are not taught in other courses in the Department of Statistics

Course Development

Course Development 2: LogisticsCourse Development 2: Logistics

Students:– Final Year Undergraduate– Graduate Diploma– Masters Degree

One-Semester course 24 hours of lectures6 extra computer practical hours

Course Development

Course Development 3: ProblemsCourse Development 3: Problems

Existing Courses: Time Series, Survey Sampling Arts Students may be studying

– Economics, Politics, Sociology etc. Science Students

– unfamiliar with these subjects 1999 Web Search revealed few, if any, similar

courses Textbook? My own background in CSO

Course Development

Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials

National Accounts

UN System of National Accounts

Eurostat - European System of Accounts

Balance of Payments

IMF - Balance of Payments Manual, Compilation Guide and Textbook

Course Development

Books used by official statisticians

Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials

That Was Then, This is Now - Change in Ireland 1949-1999 – Published by the CSO

Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland– Articles by TP Linehan Ex Director General CSO

Course Development

Other Irish official statistics sources

Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials

For Example:

Index Number Theory Databases

Course Development

Some parts of the course were easy to prepare

The CourseThe Course

Course ContentCourse Content

Domesday book IMF, Eurostat

Ireland 1800 - 2000 CSO

Background reading on UK

The Course

1. History

Course ContentCourse Content

Statistics Act in Ireland, NSB International Organisations

– IMF, OECD, ILO, Eurostat etc.

CSO as an example of an NSIIncluding Processing of statistics– Non-response, Missing data, Quality Control,

Confidentiality, CAPI, Edifact

The Course

2. Legal and Institutional

Course ContentCourse Content

National Accounts Balance of Payments External Trade Demography Agriculture Building Buisness register Vital Statistics

The Course

3. The Statistics

Data Bank Industry Labour Market Prices Retail Sales Services Transport & Tourism Non CSO data

Course ContentCourse Content

History of Cost of Living Indices Laspeyres & Paasche Substitution Bias Fisher Index Chain method CPI calculation - Household Budget Survey Purchasing Power Parities

The Course

4. Index Numbers

Course ContentCourse Content

RDBMS Normalisation, SQL etc...

MS ACCESS

The Course

5. Databases

Course ContentCourse Content

Guest Lecturers to reinforce relevance of official statistics

Regional Accounts CPI for Pensioners

The Course

6. Additional Topics

Presentation of the CoursePresentation of the Course

Content not Mathematical but Discursive Statistics Students not used to this Lot of material covered in class Wanted to encourage interaction in class

Course home page on W W W Course notes on web as PDF files Links to external sites, NSI’s etc.

The Course

Hence...

AssessmentAssessment

Course AssessmentCourse Assessment

30% Continuous Assessment 70% Final Exam

Continuous Assessment consisted of projects to be completed by students in groups of two or three

Six weeks to complete Oral Presentation Written Report

Assessment

Projects in Year OneProjects in Year One

Unemployment Statistics Agricultural Accounts BOP40 - Balance of Payments Survey Tourism Statistics Consumer Price Index and Household Budget

Survey

Assessment

Projects were based on CSO statistics

Projects in Year OneProjects in Year One

Descriptions of concepts measured Descriptions of data collection procedures International comparisons

Students should also act as consumers and analyse recent statistics

Assessment

Content

Students’ ViewsStudents’ Views

Students’ ViewsStudents’ Views

Course unlike others in Statistics Department Arts students acclimatised faster Reaction generally positive Some students very interested in area which

was new to them Two students chose careers in Official Statistics

directly because of this course 3 science students didn’t perform well

Student’s Views

Lessons Learned/Lessons Learned/AlterationsAlterations

Lessons Learned/AlterationsLessons Learned/Alterations

Course content changed slightly Examination format changed Projects revised to be more relevant to daily life New projects did not concentrate on one are but combined

many to answer a question

Lessons

Report writing was flawed in first year so guidelines were introduced for second year

Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two

Project 1.

Economists warn that the Irish economy is in danger of overheating. They cite the recent increase in inflation as one piece of evidence. Discuss, using as many sources as you can find to back up your opinion.

Lessons

Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two

Project 2.

Using at least five different indicators compare Ireland’s economic performance since 1990 with the rest of the world and explain why the Irish economy has become known as “The Celtic Tiger”

Lessons

Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two

Project 3.

There is currently a housing crisis in this country. Construction firms are booming but a few years ago builders couldn’t find jobs. Using as many official statistics as you can, describe the extent of this situation and explain what you think is its cause.

Lessons

Project GuidelinesProject Guidelines Size 15 pages 12pt font No photocopied material One page Introduction & Conclusion International Comparisons Remainder of 15 pages discretionary Appendix 1:

– Methodologies & Sources used by the NSI’s

Appendix 2: Sources for report

No Plagiarism, Complete Group Participation, Deadline

Lessons

20032003Changes in UCD caused cancellation of

this course

Lessons

FutureFutureLikely amalgamation of Survey Sampling

course with this Official Statistics course

ConclusionsConclusions

ConclusionsConclusions

Goals metStudents have better understanding of

– work done by official statisticians– how the results of that pervade society

Textbook ???Graduates employed in official statisticsGuest lecturers

ConclusionsConclusions

Conference on Official and Public Statistics

Centre for Official Statistics at UCD?

Recommend similar courses elsewhere

Patrick.Murphy@UCD.IE

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