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TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES
RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WAYNE DAY
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
TR T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T
O C T O B E R 2 0162 1 2 0
ContentsAboutthisReport................................................................................................................................3
August2016Summary........................................................................................................................4
Supply..................................................................................................................................................6
ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator............................................................6
Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...................................................................................6
MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits............................................................7
BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...........................................................7
HousingStarts..................................................................................................................................8
TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue.......................................................................8
MonthsofInventory........................................................................................................................9
MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory.................................................................................................9
BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory..............................................................................................10
Demand..............................................................................................................................................10
HousingSales.................................................................................................................................10
MajorMetrosHousingSales..........................................................................................................11
BorderMetrosHousingSales.........................................................................................................11
30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield............................................................................12
TexasHomesDaysonMarket........................................................................................................12
MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket..............................................................................13
BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket............................................................................13
MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket...................................................................................14
BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket.................................................................................14
Prices..................................................................................................................................................14
HousingPriceIndex........................................................................................................................15
MajorMetrosHousingPriceIndex.................................................................................................15
UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice...........................................................16
TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................16
MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice.........................................................................17
BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................17
MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice..............................................................................18
2
BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice.............................................................................18
UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice............................................................19
TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice........................................................................19
MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice..........................................................................20
BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice.........................................................................20
MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice...............................................................................21
BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice..............................................................................21
TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot..................................................................................22
MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot........................................................22
BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.......................................................23
MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.............................................................23
BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot...........................................................24
TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot...................................................................................24
MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.........................................................25
BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.......................................................25
MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot..............................................................26
BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot............................................................26
TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.......................................................................................27
MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio............................................................27
MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.................................................................28
HousingOpportunityIndex(AffordabilityIndex)...........................................................................28
ExuberantHousingPriceBehavior.................................................................................................29
3
AboutthisReport
RealEstateCentereconomistscontinuouslymonitormanyfacetsoftheglobal,nationalandTexaseconomies.TexasHousingInsightisasummaryofimportanteconomicindicatorsthathelpdiscerntrendsintheTexashousingmarkets.
ThismonthlypublicationprovidesdataandinsightsontheTexashousingmarkets.Wehopeyoufindthemuseful.Yourfeedbackisalwaysappreciated.Sendcommentsandsuggestionstoinfo@recenter.tamu.edu.
Dr.JamesGaines,Dr.LuisTorresandWayneDay
Data current as of October 7, 2016
© 2016, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
4
August2016Summary
TheTexaseconomymarchedforwardinAugust.Totalemploymentexpanded1.6percentyear-over-yearwithamonthlygainof10,400jobs.Monthlyjoblossescamefromthetrade,transportationandutilities,manufacturing,andtheoilandgasextractionsectors.Houstoncontinuestobeadragonoverallemploymentwithgoods-producingjobsdown4.9percentfromayearago.HousingdemandincreasedacrossthestateduringAugustthoughmixedamongthemetros.Statebuildingpermitsincreasedovertheyearandoverthemonthpriorthoughataslowerratethanyearsprior.
Supply
TheTexasResidentialConstructionLeadingIndex(RCLI),whichsignalsfuturedirectionalchangesintheresidentialconstructionbusinesscycleofsingleandmultifamilyhousing,declined.TheRCLIwasnegativelyaffectedbymonthlydeclinesinhousingstartsandweightedbuildingpermits.TheTexasResidentialBusinessCycle(Coincident)Index,themeasureofcurrentconstructionactivity,alsofellasinflation-adjustedresidentialconstructionvaluesdeclined.TheRCLIindicatesslowgrowthinfutureresidentialconstructionwhilethecoincidentindexregisteredaslowdownincurrentactivity.Housingstartsdecreased21.6percentseasonallyadjustedyear-over-year.
Single-familyhousingconstructionpermitsstatewideincreasedoverthepriormonthandayearago.Inrecentmonths,Texas’buildingpermitsshowedsignsofslowingcomparedwiththetrendfrom2011through2014.AllmajorTexasmetrospostedpermittinggainsyear-over-year.Houston(3,234)andDallas-FortWorth(2,939)stillledthenationinthenumberofsingle-familypermitsissued,followedbyAtlanta(2,167),Phoenix(1,637),andCharlotte(1,444).
MonthsofinventoryforexistinghomesacrossTexasremainedlowat3.7months.ThemonthsofinventoryhasremainedfairlystablesinceMay2015.Thenationreported4.3monthsofinventory.(Around6.5monthsofinventoryisconsideredbalanced).
Demand
TotalTexashousingsalesincreased7.4percentyear-over-yearseasonallyadjusted(7.2percentonanonseasonallyadjustedbasis)comparedwithapositive8.8percentinthenation(8.4percentonanonseasonallyadjustedbasis).Austin(7.4percent),Dallas-FortWorth(5.2percent),Houston(8.3percent),andSanAntonio(12.1percent)allincreasedyear-over-year.Themetrosgainedonamonthlybasisaswell.Onayear-to-datebasis,Houstonisaheadof20151.1percentwhileDallas-FortWorthisupby4.8percent(nonseasonallyadjusted).
Mortgageinterestratesremainedbelow4percent.TheFederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationreportedasteady3.44percentaveragerateona30-yearfixed-ratemortgage,whiletheten-yearU.S.Treasurybondyieldtickedupto1.56percentfrom1.50themonthprior.
5
Thenumberofdaysanexistinghomewasonthemarketremainedlowat53daysrelativetopriorperiods,reflectingthetightsupply.Duringthesamemonth,newhomesregisteredlongersalesperiodsthanexistinghomesat93days.Theaveragestatewidedifferencetosellanewhomeversusanexistinghomewas40days.Innumberofdays,newhomesinHouston(97)andAustin(88)tooklongertosellcomparedtoDallas-Plano-Irving(75),FortWorth-Arlington(81),andSanAntonio(82).
Prices
AverageandmediansalespriceshaverisendramaticallyinTexassince2011.Althoughpriceswerestillgenerallyincreasing,thereweresignsofdeceleration.AustinwasthehousepriceappreciationleaderthroughAugustwithpricesremainingwellabovetheothermajormetros.NonenergyemploymentgrowthandastrongservicessectorcausedDallas-FortWorthtoalsoregisterstrongpriceappreciation.Duetorecentdeclinesintheenergysectorandtheresultingeconomicslowdown,Houstoncontinuedtosoftenintherateofpricegrowthaheadoftheothermetros.SanAntoniopriceincreaseshavealsosoftenedsomewhat.MedianpricesfornewhomesinDallasandHoustonareonparwithandhaveexceededAustinnewhomeprices.
Thesofteninginpricegrowthisbeingstronglyinfluencedbyreducedpricesfornewhomesratherthanexistinghomes,especiallyatthehigherpriceend.ThedifferencefromtheinitiallistingpricetotheactualsalespricefornewhomeshassteadilywidenedinTexassinceearly2014.Incontrastforexistinghomes,thelisting-to-salepricedifferencehasflattened,probablyreflectingachangeinmarketconditionsforthesellersofnewhomes.
Since2011,newhomepriceshaveexceededexistinghomepricesby48percentand37percentbasedonmedianandaveragesalesprices,respectively.Thispricedifferentialresultsprimarilybecauseofincreasesinhomesizefornewerhomesandthesignificantincreasesinconstructionandlandcostsfornewhomes.TheaveragepricepersquarefootforanewhomeinTexasisapproximately19percentmorethanforanexistinghome.
Withrapidpriceappreciation,TexasaffordabilitycontinuedtofallrelativetotheU.S.,especiallyinthemajorMSAs.TheHousingOpportunityIndexforAustinandDallas—measuringthepercentofhomesaffordabletothoseearningthemedianfamilyincomeforthearea—arefoundtobebelowthenationalvalue,indicatingtheyarerelativelylessaffordablethantherestofthecountry.Incontrast,FortWorthisrelativelymoreaffordablethanthenation,whileSanAntonioseemstoregisterrelativelythesameaffordabilityastheUnitedStates.LowerpricesinHoustonalsoresultedinanincreaseofaffordability.
ThemapprovidesdetailedinformationregardingTexas25MSAsexperiencingepisodesof“explosivebehavior”inhouseprices,meaningamisalignmentinhousepricesfromtheirfundamental-basedintrinsicvalues.TheCollegeStation-BryanMSAhadaperiodofexplosivebehaviorin2Q2016,whiletheDFW(inparticularDallas),AustinandVictoriaMSAspostedsomeunusualpricemovements.Theseregionsshouldcontinuetobetrackedinthedetectionofpossiblemisalignmentswitheconomicfundamentalsofdemandandsupply.
6
Supply
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityandFederalReserveBankofDallas
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
TexasCoincidentIndexUnitedStatesCoincidentIndexTexasLeadingIndex
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
UnitedStates Texas
Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)
ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator(IndexJan2007=100)
7
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Austin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)
BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)
8
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandBankofTokyo-MitsubishiUFJ
Note:Inflationadjusted.Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:DodgeAnalytics
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
UnitedStates Texas
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
TexasAustin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
HousingStarts(IndexJan2007=100)
TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue(IndexJan2007=100)
9
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.MonthsofinventoryfortheUnitedStatesisestimatedusingweightsforallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtorsandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
UnitedStates Texas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Austin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
MonthsofInventory(Months)
MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)
10
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Demand
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.SalesfortheUnitedStatesincludeallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
456789
1011121314151617
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
UnitedStates Texas
HousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)
BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)
11
Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
556065707580859095100105110115120125
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Austin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
6065707580859095100105110115120125
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Brownsville-HarlingenElPasoLaredoMcAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)
BorderMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)
12
Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Sources:FederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationandFederalReserveBoard
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4
Dec-14
May-15
Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Mortgage Bond
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeDaysonMarketNewHomeDaysonMarket
30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield(Percent)
TexasHomesDaysonMarket(Days)
13
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)
BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)
14
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRock Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)
BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)
15
Prices
Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Source:FederalHousingFinanceAgency
Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Source:FederalHousingFinanceAgency
7580859095100105110115120125130135140
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16
UnitedStates Texas
859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160165
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfelsElPaso
HousingPriceIndex(IndexQ12007=100)
MajorMetrosHousingPriceIndex(IndexQ12007=100)
16
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice
NewHomeAverageSalesPrice
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice
NewHomeAverageSalesPrice
TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
17
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-HarlingenElPasoLaredoMcAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
18
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington
Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)
19
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice
NewHomeMedianSalesPrice
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice
NewHomeMedianSalesPrice
TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
20
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.
Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso
Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
21
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
170,000
210,000
250,000
290,000
330,000
370,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso
Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)
22
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
7580859095100105110115120125130135
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeAveragePricePSFNewHomeAveragePricePSF
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington
Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)
TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)
23
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen
ElPaso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)
MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)
24
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen
ElPaso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeMedianPricePSF
NewHomeMedianPricePSF
BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)
TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)
25
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington
Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso
Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)
BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)
26
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Brownsville-HarlingenElPasoLaredoMcAllen-Edinburg-Mission
MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)
BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)
27
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
ExistingHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio
NewHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6Austin-RoundRock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington
Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)
TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)
28
Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity
Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSources:NationalAssociationofHomeBuildersandWellsFargo
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-1
1Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Austin-RoundRock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
FortWorth-Arlington
Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand
SanAntonio-NewBraunfels
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16
UnitedStatesAustin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-SugarLand-BaytownSanAntonio-NewBraunfels
HousingOpportunityIndex(AffordabilityIndex)(Percentageofhomessold,affordabletomedian-incomefamily)
MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)
29
Note:Red,above95percentcriticalvalue.Amber,80-95percentcriticalvalue.Green,below80percentcriticalvalue.Piechartsindicatethesharespentwithineachrangeoverthepastfivequarters(from2015Q2till2016Q2).Formoreinformation,see:LuisB.Torres,EnriqueMartínez-García,andValerieGrossman(2016):"CurbYourEnthusiasm:KeepinganEyeonHomePrices."JournaloftheRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityTierraGrande,Vol.23,July2016.Sources:FreddieMac,BureauofLaborStatistics,RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity,andFederalReserveBankofDallas
ExuberantHousingPriceBehavior(Index;2Q2015to2Q2016)
i
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DIRECTOR
GARY W. MALER
MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe
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TED NELSON Houston
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KIMBERLY SHAMBLEY DallasRONALD C. WAKEFIELD San AntonioC. CLARK WELDER San AntonioBILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple
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