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Texas’s Educational Challenge: Demographic Dividend or Bust?

Marta Tienda Princeton University

Outline • Context: Galloping Population

– Propitious conditions for harnessing dividend

• Education Indicators and Trends – K-12: Challenges & Opportunities – Higher Education: Swimming Upstream

• Implications for 10-Gallon Economy – Future Labor Force Quality – Aging Anglo Workforce

Texas Population Growth: 1970-2010

Year Inter-decade % Change

Texas Population

(‘000)

Texas U.S. # U.S. Representatives

1970 11,197 24 1980 14,222 27.0 11.4 27 1990 16,987 19.4 9.8 30 2000 20,852 22.8 13.2 32 2010 25,145 20.6 9.7 36

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-08.pdf

Changes in Population Composition, 1980-2010: U.S. and Texas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1990 2000 2010

US-White

Texas -White

US-Black

Texas-Black

US-Latino

Texas-Latino

Texas: Majority Minority

%

Latinos and 10-Gallon Economy • “The future of the nation is inextricably linked to the

…Hispanic community.” WHIEEH, 2014

• “The challenge that Texas faces is to maintain or accelerate recent improvements in educational attainment of Hispanics in the state.” You & Potter, 2014

• “Texas…must increase college success among fast-growing groups…including …low-income and first generation students and students of color.”Lumina 2012

• “The Latino future is the future of [Texas]….but what kind of future will it be?” Murdock, 2010

Answer: Depends on Investments in Education

U.S. Age-Education Attainment Pyramids

1970

Source: http://www.sciencemag.org/site/special/population/1206964-lutz-f1.xhtml

2010

Texas 2010 Age Pyramids: Whites and Latinos

White Latinos

600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Aging White

600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000

Source: Texas State Data Center and the Center for Health Statistics, Texas Department of State Health Services

Investment Opportunity

Lone Star : Demographic Dividend or Bust?

K-12

HS Graduation College Enrollment College Completion

Texas Educational Investments: Elementary and Secondary School Indicators , 2011-2012

Texas U.S. Average Difference

% Free/Reduced Lunch 51.0 43.3 +7.7 % LEP-ELL Students 14.9 9.0 +5.9

Total Per Pupil Expenditure $10, 541 $12,201 -$1,660

NAEP: % Proficient or above

Grade 8 Math % 36 33 +3 Grade 8 Reading % 28 29 -1 Grade 8 Science % 23 27 -4

% ages 25-34 with AA degree or higher

32 42 -10

Source: CCD Data; nces.ed.gov/programs/stateprofiles/

Number of Texas High School Graduates: 1997-2010; Projections to 2028

Source:http://www.wiche.edu/knocking-8th/press/presentation

Composition of Texas HS Public School Graduates: 1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

White

African

Asian

Hispanic

Sources: WICHE 1990, 2008 and 2012 reports

Texas High School Graduation Rates: 2007-2012

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Latino

ANGLO

African American

Source: Texas Education Agency. 2014. New High School Graduation Mark Set by Class of 2013

%

~ 20 pts

~ 9 pts

Thou

sand

s of

Stu

dent

s Texas Higher Education Enrollment Trends and Projections: 1991-2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2020

Private Colleges and Universities

Public Universities

~ 40% increase total enrollment ~ 23% increase public universities

Public Community & Technical Colleges

Hispanic and African American College Enrollment: 2013 Actual and 2015 CTG Targets

2013 Actual Enrollment (‘000)

2015 CTG Target (‘000)

Shortfall (‘000)

African American

2-year public 113.6 87.7 none

4-year public 72.2 64.8 none

Hispanic

2-year public 291.8 429.9 -138.1 (47%)

4-year public 177.4 212.8 -35.4 (20%)

Source: Table A-1, Closing the Gaps 2014 Progress Report, June 2014

Texas College Attainment: Swimming Upstream and Falling Behind

4-yr. College Attainment Rates for 25-34 yr. olds: U.S. and Texas, 1980-2010

(Percentages)

1980 1990 2000 2010 Texas 22.9 21.5 23.7 27.2 U.S. 24.2 23.9 29.3 32.8 Difference -1.3 -2.4 -5.6 -5.6

Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population 1980-2000 and 2010 ACS

Population Ages 25-34 and 55-64 that Attained College Degrees: OECD + Nations, 2010 (Percentages)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Kor

ea

Japa

n

Can

ada

Rus

sian

Fed

erat

ion1

Irela

nd

Nor

way

New

Zea

land

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Aus

tral

ia

Isra

el

Bel

gium

Fran

ce

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Swed

en

Net

herla

nds

Switz

erla

nd

Finl

and

Spai

n

Chi

le

Esto

nia

OEC

D a

vera

ge

Den

mar

k

Pola

nd

Gre

ece

Ger

man

y

Mex

ico

Aus

tria

Italy

Texa

s

Bra

zil2

25-34 year-olds 55-64 year-olds

Source: OECD. Table A1.3a. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2012). Statlink

College Attainment (Associate & Higher) by Age Cohorts and Race/Ethnicity – Texas 2008-10

Source:http://www.wiche.edu/knocking-8th/press/presentation

Black

Native American

Hispanic

Asian

White

Texas’ Investment in Higher Education Lags Behind Student Needs and Workforce Demands

Center for Public Policy Priorities, 2012

Texas Higher Education Funding & Tuition Costs, 1990-2010

Source: Center for Public Policy Priorities. 2012. “Texas Investment in Higher Education Lags Behind Student Needs and Workforce Demands.” Demos

College squeeze for low-income & first gen. students

Stagnant state funding

Rising cost

Two Compelling Reasons to Invest in Higher Education

Burgeoning labor force growth Population aging

Projected Change in Working-Age Populations (Ages 15-64)

Source: http://window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/workforce/

Educational investment imperative to harness dividend

Percent of Anglo and Hispanic Population by Age: TEXAS, 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

<5 5 to 9 10 to14

15 to19

20 to24

25 to29

30 to34

35 to39

40 to44

45 to49

50 to54

55 to59

60 to64

65 to69

70 to74

75 to79

80 to84

>85

White (NotHispanic)

Hispanic What kind of Future?

Thank You

Acknowledge technical support from Cara Carpenito and Dawn Koffman