the 2012 election the final analysis demographics strategies & issues finance

THE 2012 ELECTION

THE FINAL ANALYSIS         

DEMOGRAPHICS 

STRATEGIES & ISSUES 

FINANCE 

Election Demographics

% of vote

Presidential Campaign Strategies and Issues

Campaign Messages-Economy

• Romney:– Obama is responsible for the weak economy, high 

unemployment and poor job creation.–  My policies will create 12 million new jobs.

• Obama:– I inherited a catastrophic economic situation that 

takes time to fix.– The US economy and jobs are gradually 

recovering.

Campaign Messages:  Taxes

• Romney:  I will reduce all personal tax rates by 20% with offsetting elimination of tax deductions.

• Obama:  Romney won’t say what tax deductions will be eliminated.– Romney’s plan would require eliminating home 

mortgage interest deductions and other deductions that raise taxes for the Middle Class.

– Instead those earning over $250,000 should pay more.

Campaign Ads

•  Obama – defined Romney with early ad blitz.– bought ads at lower candidate rates.

•  Romney – “outsourced” large % of ads to outside groups, 

which cost more and lost control of the message.

•  Some negative ads backfired for both       campaigns.

Ground Game

• Obama’s ground game was the best in history.

• Romney’s get-out-the-vote technology had major problems.

Polling

• Public polls and Obama pollsters got it right.• Republican pollsters had a bad night.• Online and live phone polls outperformed 

automated phone polls.

Gaffes and October Surprise

• Gaffes:  – “Legitimate” rape– 47% – Binders full of women– You didn’t build that– Going to put y’all in chains

• October surprise - Hurricane Sandy benefited Obama and stalled the Romney campaign.

Impact of Other Issues

• Benghazi• Immigration• Obamacare• Reproductive rights• Gay marriage• Legalization of marijuana

CAMPAIGN FINANCE  

  The 2012 election is estimated to cost $6 billion

The most expensive in history!

Factors: Presidential Fundraising Super PACs & Outside Spending Legislative Races

Let’s follow the money

2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Republicans & Mitt Romney

Raised: $1.13 billion

Spent: $1.11 billion

Democrats & Barack Obama

Raised: $1.08 billion

Spent: $957 million

Campaign Expenses

$720.1 million $859.9 million

Campaign spent 42% Campaign spent 52%Advertising

Total

Field offices Romney’s $300 million Obama’s $800 million

Field StafferMedianSalary/Month

Romney’s $6,000 Obama’s $3,000

FUNDING SOURCES

RNC vs. DNC$351 million Maximum Donation: $30,800. Both parties raised more from $267 million donors giving $5,000 or less.

Campaign$413 million Maximum Donation: $2,500. Obma raised more from donors$645 million giving $200 or less. Romney raised more from donors giving over $2,000. Super PACs

$203 million Unlimited donations. Of the 16 contributors who donated $2 $75 million million or more to Super PACs, 6 were for Obama; 10 for Romney

FUNDING STRATEGIES

Obama’s campaign•Done in-house•Concentrated on raising funds from small donors•Over 4 million individuals contributed to his campaign•Many contributed more than once via online

or text messages

Romney’s campaign•Did not raise as much •His alignment with outside spending groups allowed him

to keep up

Sources of Funding by Sector

•Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Romney, $52.1 million Obama, $18.7 million

•Miscellaneous Business

Romney, $24.4 million Obama, $19.9 million •Lawyers & Lobbyists

Romney, $13.6 million Obama, $25.5 million •Labor

Romney, $3,245 Obama, $413,394 •Retirees

Romney, $56.3 million Obama, $50 million

BIG SPENDERS

G/S – affiliated supporters: $994,239

:

Morgan Stanley: $827,255

Credit Suisse Group: $618,941

UC - affiliated supporters: $1,092,906

Microsoft: $761,343

Google, Inc: $737,055

US Government: $627,628

Harvard University: $602,992

JP Morgan Chase & Co: $792,147

Bank Of America: $921,839

SUPER PACS/OUTSIDE GROUPS

RESTORE OUR FUTURE $142,645,946AMERICAN CROSSROADS$124,138,876

PRIORITIES USA ACTION$77,707,200REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE$42,414,344AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY $33,564,920 (501C)

CROSSROADS GPS$22,133,006 (501C)

AMERICAN FUTURE FUND$23,619,612

AMERICANS FOR JOB SECURITY $15,872,866 (501C)

NRA OF AMERICAPOLITICAL VICTORY FUND $9,621,827SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT’L UNION $16,439,069US CHAMBER OF

COMMERCE$32,676,075 (501C)