the development & application of additive manufacturing & 3d printing

The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing

-looking to the past to inform the future-

Stockholm, Sweden – 19th September 2013

Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst

• A personal introduction• Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP)• The principles of layer manufacturing explained• Technology applications and trends• The business drivers to technology adoption (users)• Looking at the consumer 3D Printing Eco-system

(suppliers)• Projecting out the future

Contents (50-minutes)

About Econolyst• Econolyst is a UK based consultancy & research firm

dedicated to the 3DP & Additive Manufacturing

• Established 2003• Team of Engineers, designers, economists,

mathematician, software developers, retail & HR people

• Partnership with Nottingham University for technology development & materials characterisation

• Work across the Western Europe, Scandinavia, USA, the Middle East & Far East

• Fortune 500 client base

What do we do• Help companies ideate &

embed AM/3DP products into their brands, value chains & supply chains

• Help AM software, technology & materials vendors with their technology & market strategy

• Advise public & private sector investors on the dynamics of the AM/3DP market place

Point Lobos Capital

Current stuff that keep us busy!• Modelling the 10-year convergence of 3D Printing,

open source electronics & robotics on the consumer electronics industry

• Investigating the long terms innovation benefits for the wide scale adoption of consumer 3D printing in a professional automotive design environment

• Modelling the current and future economics for the use of 3D Printing to support volume manufacturing

• Technology mapping for the re-shoring of ‘digital footwear’ – technology & data pathways

The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing

-looking to the past to inform the future-

Q) Is 3D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing?

Q) Is 3D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing?•YES, but:A)3DP is typically associated with people printing at home or in the communityB)AM is typically associated with production technologies & supply chainsC)BUT they both produce parts by the addition of layers

What is Additive Layer Manufacturing

3DP processes are automated systems that take 2-dimensional

layers of computer data and rebuild them into 3D solid objects

Why is this layer thing so different• Subtractive

– Material is successively removed from a solid block until the desired shape is reached (2.5M BC – Hominids)

• Fabricative

– Elements or physical material are combined and joined (6,000 BC – Western Asia)

• Formative

– Mechanical forces and, or heat are applied to material to form it into the desired shape such as bending, casting and molding (3,000 BC – Egyptians)

• Additive

– Material is manipulated so that successive pieces of it combine to make the desired object (1984 – Californians)

This is not a new concept• 1902 - Peacock patent for laminated horse shoes• 1952 - Kojima demonstrated layer manufacturing benefits• 1967 - Swainson files US patent for dual light-source resin system• 1981 - Kodama publishes 3 solid holography methods• 1982 - Chuck Hull experiments with SLA• 1984 - Chuck files US patent 4,575,330• 1986 - 3D Systems formed, others follow• 1987 - Rapid Prototyping became a commercial reality• 1990 - Layer manufactured parts used as casting patterns• 1995 - Layer manufactured parts used as tools• 2000 - Layer manufactured parts used as production parts• 2011 – 45,000 ALM machines globally (in total since 1984)• 2012 – 45,000 new machines sold in 1-year

How to make a layer

Cut from stock Jetting

E-Beam

Laser

Extruded

Infrared

Thermally

Chemically

Photocurable

Solvent jetting

Binder jetting

Laser spot

DMD/DLP

Jet & Flash

Powder bed

Powder feed

Wire feed

How do ALM process build layers

• Solidscape• 3D Invision DP

•Arcam EBM• Sciaky EBM3

• Stratasys – FDM• MakerBot clones

•Sintermask• High Speed sintering

•Voxel Jet – PM

• Z-Corp – 3DP• ProMetal• F-Cubic

• 3D Systems – SLA•Nextfactory – Digiwax•DMEC - SLA

• EnvisionTEC – Perfactory• EnvisionTEC – Vanquish• 3D systems – Vflash• DWS – Micro SLA• Asiga - Pica

• Objet – Polyjet• 3D Invision HR/XT

• 3D Systems - SLS • EOS - LS & DMLS• Phenix, Concept Laser, Realizer, Renishaw, SLM Solutions - SLM

•Optomec – LENS • Accufusion - LC

•Solidica – Ultrasonic compaction•Mcor Matrix• CAM-LEM CM100

Commercial ALM systems in 2013

So what can we print after 29-years?

Waxes

Polyamide (nylon)

Organic material

s

Polymeric

materials

Ceramic

materials ABS

Filled PA

PEEK

Thermosetting epoxies

Ceramic (nano) loaded epoxies

PMMA

Polycarbonate

Polyphenylsulfone

Tool Steel

Aluminium

Titanium

Inconel

Cobalt Chrome

Copper

Stainless steel

Mullite

Alumina

Zirconia

Gold / platinum

Silicon Carbide

Hastelloy

Aluminium loaded polyamide

Beta-Tri calcium Phosphate

Silica (sand)

Plaster

Graphite

ULTEM

Tissue / cells

Metallic materia

ls

Prototypes (Rapid Prototyping)

Casting Patterns (Rapid Casting)

Tool cavities (Rapid Tooling)

Direct Parts (Additive Manufacturing)

3DP is just an enabler – many applications

Rapid Prototyping $$

Rapid Casting $

Rapid Tooling $

Additive Manufacturing $$$$$$

But what about the value

Why is AM becoming so important to manufacturers

(I want to be a user!)

The core business drivers to AM adoption

1. Economic low volume production2. Increased geometric freedom3. Product personalisation4. Improvised environmental sustainability5. New supply chains and retail models6. Increased part functionality

1. Enabling low volume production

• Enabled the economic manufacture of low volume complex geometries and assemblies

– Reduces the need for tooling (moulds / cutters)

– Reduced capital investment & inventory– Simplifies supply chains & reduced lead

times

Example – unit volumes of 1

• Bentley is a subsidiary of Volkswagen• Vehicles from $250K - $1M• In-house polymeric and metallic AM capacity

Example – Low volume production

• Problem – customer with limited mobility needed a reversed dashboard

• Production substrate produced by RIM• Manual modification time consuming• Solution – Laser Sintered AM part with

leathers and veneers veneers

Images courtesy of Bentley

Example – Low volume production

Images courtesy of Bentley

2. Maximising design complexity

• AM enables the production of highly complex geometries with little if no cost penalty

– Re-entrant features– Variable wall thicknesses– Complex honey combs– Non-linear holes– Filigree structures– Organic / genetic structures

Example – Delphi Diesel Pump

• Conventional product manufactured by cross drilling an aluminium die casting

• Multiple machining operations• Multiple post processing ops (chemical

deburring, hole blanking, pressure testing)• Final product prone to leakage

Design the product around the holes

Example – conceptual Diesel Pump

• Produce the part as one piece using Selective Laser melting on Aluminium

3. Increasing part functionality

• AM enabled multiple functionality to be manufactured using a single process

– Replacing surface coatings & textures– Modifying physical behaviour by designing

‘mechanical properties’– Embedding secondary materials (optical /

electrical)– Grading multiple materials in a single part

surface design for bone ingress

Implants (production)• Accetabular cups

Material: Ti6Al4VBuild time: 16 cups in

18 hours

Images Courtesy of ARCAM – www.arcam.com

Example – Heat dissipation surfaces

Example – Energy absorption

Multifunctional technology platforms

4. Product Personalisation

• Individual consumer centric products, with customer input

– Medical devices– Consumer goods– Cultural & emotional artefacts– Online design tools– Co-creation

www.makielab.com

• Children engage with technology

There are many new interfaces

5. Life cycle sustainability

• Product lifecycle improvements in economic and environmental sustainability

– Reduced raw material consumption– Efficient supply chains– Optimised product efficiency– Lighter weights components– Reduced lifecycle burden

Case study – aerospace cabin component

Design optimisation for AM

Machine from solid billet

Topologically optimised

Complex lattice

Images courtesy of Loughborough University

How does the weight compare

Scenario 1 – Machined from solid (0.8Kg)

Scenario 2 – Selective Laser melted

lattice (0.31 kg)

Scenario 3 – Selective Laser melted optimised

design (0.37 Kg)

• Example based on 90M km (Long haul) application

Process Raw Materials CO2

Manufacture CO2

DistributionCO2

UsageCO2

Life cycleKg CO2

Machining 100Kg 2 Kg 5 Kg 43,779 Kg 43,886

SLM lattice 16 Kg 5 Kg 1 Kg 16,238 Kg 16,260

SLM optimal 18 Kg 7 kg 2 Kg 20,339 Kg 20,366

Lifecycle environmental benefit

Sunday Times 13th Feb 2011

• 0.49Kg saving per monitor arm• $1,500 per annum in fuel savings (today's

prices)• $45,000 over 30-year aircraft life• Product life span 5-7 years (estimate)

• Life-cycle economic saving $6.5K - $9K• Machined part - $500• SLM Part - $2,500• Capital investment repaid in 2-years….

Example – life cycle economic benefits

This is a step change in design

BUT - We can go much further

6. Supply chain realignment

• New lean yet agile business models and supply chain

– Distributed manufacture– Manufacture and the point of consumption– Demand pull business models– Stockless supply chains– Chainless supply chains (home

manufacture)

Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3DP

$50.00 each60,000 month$36M P/A

Figure Prints – 4,000 per month

$6.2-million (6-machines)

“But what about consumer 3D Printing?”

(I want to be a supplier BUT - It’s all just Hype!)

There is certainly a lot of hype

The hype debunked

“you can print anything”

“Bigger than the internet” “A new world

order”

Bigger than the internet……………..

“Bigger than the internet”

How big is 3DP compared to www?

THIS BIG

0.0002% 3DP users to web users2,405,518,376 internet users

THIS BIG

60,000 home 30,000 commercial

Lots of opportunity !!!!http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/

Will 3DP ever be bigger than www?2012/13 figures

90,000 machines globally (max) in 2012288% annual growth (max)

2,405,518,376 internet users in 201246% annual growth

Global population 7,017,846,922 in 20121.2% annual growth

2025 convergence!!!!

You can print anything…………………….

“you can print anything”

BUT - you can’t print everything..

Geometric limitations

Thermal management issues

Dumb systems with dumb software

Consumer 3DP is getting bigger

• www.compete.com

So where are the opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing

space?

The 3DP Ecosystem

Machines

Materials

ProductsDesign solutions

Data management

Integrated solutions

Front end software

Machines

Materials

ProductsDesign solutions

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

TINKERCAD – front end design tools

Digital Forming – web constraint modelling

This is a bedside light

This is a lemon squeezer

This is a pall point pen

Back end software

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Data management

Integrated solutions

• Website that broker the flow of digital 3D Printable date

• Sometimes free, some pay-per-download• Some integrated with professional back-end 3D

Print fulfilment businesses• Emerging platforms focused on consumer

machines (3DHUBS)

Aggregation sites

Machines

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

A lot of simple FDM systems have been successful

Formlabs

Concept Seed investment R&D Kick starter

$2M working capital

Product

Materials

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

People are sourcing and slicing materials

Plastic isn't the only material

www.chocedge.com

Filabot – machines to process waste

Products

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

Using on-line print fulfilment then sell products

Integrated solutions

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

www.makie.me (action dolls made in London)

Figure Prints – big ticket integration

A $100B industry !!!!!!

Machines

Materials

ProductsFront-end software

Back-end software

Integrated solutions

All the drivers are pushing the right way

Social networking

Increasing population

Shifting wealth

Power & water consumption

Political instability

Environmental concerns

Increasing old age

Reducing birth rate

The $20 computer

32% of the world online

4G and wireless

Cloud based storage

Cloud based computing

100Mb broadband

Socioeconomic changes

Technological changes

Also……

Our world of 3DP/AM is changing!

“The only constant I am sure of is this ever increasing pace of change – Peter Gabriel

2000”

The world is changing

Routes to market

Access to innovations & skill

Access to financeRemoval of barriers

Machine prices are tumbling

SLA Viper Si2 - $250K

Formlabs Form 1 - $3.2K

Fortus MC400 - $150K

GigaBot- $4K

EnvisionTec perfactory - $79K

B9 Creator - $3.5K

Exponential growth (288% PA)

Material prices are tumbling

Stratasys ABS - $297 Kg Makerbot ABS - $48 Kg

Injection moulding ABS - $2.5 Kg

Conversion $0.02 Kg

Capabilities are increasing / accelerating

RepRap

Cupcake

Thing-o-matic

Replicator

Replicator 2

Replicator 2X

March 2009

Sept 2010

Jan 2012

Sept 2012

Jan 2013

18-months14-

months 10-months 4-months

capabili

ty

Technology convergence

CAPABILITY

LowHigh

COST

Low

HighProfessional

Consum

er

Not

goo

d en

ough

Too expensive

Barriers to technology adoption

Forecasting the future

Productivity (Kg/h)

2013T0

20082003 2018T1

2023 T2

Print heads / capacity

Laser power / scan speed

Hardware cost

Material Cost

IP protection

Econolyst – IBM consumer electronics study

You have to love what you do..

The 3DP candidates

Reverse engineer the parts

• Size, volume, surface area

• Loading– Structural

– cyclic

• Environmental conditions– Water

– Detergent

– Humidity

– Thermal loading & cycling

• Functionality– Water tight

– Shock proof

– Aesthetic

Identify most appropriate solution

• Metallic– Selective Laser Melting– Direct Metal Laser Sintering– Electron Beam Melting– Direct Metal Deposition– Digital Metal Printing

• Polymeric– Selective Laser Sintering– Stereolithography– Polyjet– Projet– Voxeljet– FDM

AM viability & economic modelling

Environmental lifecycle modelling

Understanding the current BOM

Product / technology roadmaps

Realities…….

Bosch Washing machine T0 – 2013

T1 – 2018

T2 - 2023

Current BOM $310Value of non 3DP Parts $235 $235 $235Value of 3DP displacement parts

$75 $75 $75

T0 3DP cost of manufacture

$11,564

$337 $83

3DP augmented product $11,799

$572 $318

Just not meant to be

3DP technology innovation

Cost parity

Realities…….

IPhone 5 T0 – 2013

T1 – 2018

T2 - 2023

Current BOM $202Value of non 3DP Parts $195 $195 $195Value of 3DP displacement parts

$7.00 $7.00 $7.00

T0 3DP cost of manufacture

$123 $12.39 $5.66

3DP augmented product $318 $207.39

$200.66

Expensive personalised luxury

Acceptable price delta

No great improvement (don’t wait)

The next 10-years

Bosch Washing machine T0 – 2013

T1 – 2018

T2 - 2023

Current BOM $310Value of non 3DP Parts $235 $235 $235Value of 3DP displacement parts

$75 $75 $75

T0 3DP cost of manufacture

$11,564

$337 $83

3DP augmented product $11,799

$572 $318

Just not meant to be

3DP technology innovation

Cost parity

Realities…….

In-the-ear hearing aid T0 – 2013

T1 – 2018

T2 - 2023

Current BOM $313Value of non 3DP Parts $310 $310 $100Value of 3DP displacement parts

$0 $3 $200.62

T0 3DP cost of manufacture

$3 $0.38 $12.38

3DP augmented product $313 $310.38

$112.38

Currently 3D Printed on mass

3D Printed & assembled on the high street

3D Printed digital assemblies

• Don’t promise your mum a 3D printed washing machine unless you know she is going to live until 2023

• Start worrying (a lot) if you are machining metal cases for IPhones

• Take AM seriously if you are engaged in activities involving the manufacture of high value, low volume parts today, and high volume tomorrow

• Start developing a consumer 3DP strategy & an industrial AM strategy – they WILL converge

• Look to the blue water – the red water is already getting very bloody ………..

Summary

QuestionsEconolyst Ltd

The SilversmithsCrown YardWirksworth

Derbyshire, UKDE4 4ET

+44 (0) 1629 824447Skype: econolyst

phil.reeves@econolyst.co.uk