the economic crisis in east asia and the pacific islands (eap):
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The Economic Crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP):
Monitoring the Impact on Children: The UNICEF EAPRO
Experience
Dr. Mahesh Patel,
UNICEF EAPRO,
Brighton, March 2010
Average annual growth rates (GDP, constant prices) – 1997 Crisis to Now
Source: IMF, September 2009
Rationale for real-time monitoring in East Asia and the Pacific
• Lack of substantive data on social impact of the1997/98 East Asian economic crisis
• UNICEF EAPRO commissioned special issue of Global Social Policy to explore potential impacts of this crisis on children based on lessons of the 1997/98 Crisis:– Concept note proposing methodology to monitor
trends in health, education and social budgets using sentinel sites was part of this issue
• Countries where idea has been endorsed thus far: Lao PDR, Mongolia, Indonesia, Pacific Island Countries, Viet Nam– Slightly different versions in Indonesia and Viet Nam
UNICEF EAPRO methodology – Key Ideas
Education:• Possible indicators: attendance; teacher attendance; school
budget receipts, including parental contributions.• Sample sites – numbers could be collected from sentinel
schools in selected vulnerable areas, weekly or monthly.
Health: • Outpatient visits, total ante-natal care visits, health center user
fee receipts - all collected and collated, weekly or monthly.• Sentinel sites often already exist for notifiable diseases and to
warn of epidemics (also in HIV).
Social Budgets:• Simplest : Government strategic intent to “increase”, “hold the
line” or “reduce social expenditure”• More demanding: Comparison of fiscal budget years for sectors,
data on total national disbursements and planned expenditures; Public Expenditure Reviews
Country examples of real-time monitoring
UNICEF initiatives (1): LPDR
• National consultation on monitoring the potential impact of the crisis on children in Feb 2009, following regional conference• Government asked and UNICEF produced concept note, consulting
relevant in-line ministries
• Concept note proposes monitoring 4 areas:• Consumer price data: Already being collected in 8 sentinel sites
(markets areas) across the country• Education: Attendance – monthly, from 1 primary school per province• Health: Monthly data from 18-27 health centres nationally on –
weekly/monthly outpatient visits and total ante-natal care visits• Child protection: Number of street children and number of village
children in orphanages periodically – child protection section, with a local NGO, already collecting some primary data from focus group to assess impact of crisis on streeth youths/parents
• Health and education monitoring being finalized
UNICEF initiatives (2): Mongolia
• Deputy Prime Minister’s Office leading the initiative, with technical and financial support from UNICEF- EAPRO concept note adopted and adapted to suit unique context
• Pilot just completed (December 2009): Info collected from15 sentinel sites – 250-280 HHs – using existing administrative systems; Pulse survey of 200 HHs; FGDs, IDIs and KIIs
• Sites selected based on poverty maps and poorest provinces/districts selected from country’s 5 regions• For each selected district/province sentinel sites included: school,
dormitory, FGP and/or health center, police station, convenience store
• 15 indicators monitored: health; education; livelihoods; protection and market prices of food and essential items
UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs
• UNICEF helped initiate and plays leading role in joint-UN monitoring scheme that is underway
• 8 PICs taking part: Fiji, Solomon Is., Tonga, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI)
• 2-3 sentinel monitoring sites in each country, covering rural and urban settings, tracking services and communities• Schools, hospitals/health centers, pharmacies, food markets and
police posts• 30 HHs served by facilities in sites will also be monitored with a small
pulse-HH survey and FGDs – therefore 60-90 HHs/country• Quarterly data collection throughout 2009-11
• Sentinel sites selected by National Steering Committees
UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs (contd…)
• 4 countries have already completed their first round of data collection and preliminary estimates are available:
– Tuvalu: 90 HHs monitored – HHs selected (40 in Funafuti, 30 in Nanumea and 20 in Nukufetau) using 2004/05 Tuvalu Households Income and Expenditure Survey
• 71.43 % of surveyed families said increase in food prices accounted for food budget constraints
– Tonga: 56 HHs interviewed – 29 from urban, 27 rural• 60% of those interviewed reported experiencing more difficulty in
paying school related expenses compared to last year
– Solomon Islands: 96 HHs interviewed – 30 urban, 66 rural• 33% of all reported more difficulty in paying school related
expenses compared to this time last year
– Vanuatu: 90 HHs interviewed
UNICEF initiatives (4): Viet Nam
• UNICEF and UNDP helped VASS develop concept note on Rapid Impact Monitoring (RIM) of vulnerable communities in April 2009
• RIM being undertaken in 10 selected sentinel sites nationally:• 5 rural; 5 urban• 2 industrial zones; 2 urban areas with many construction workers; 1
rural/coastal tourism site; 1 craft village; 1 rural site with substantial emigration; 1 rural, agriculture exporting site and 1 rural site with high concentration of poor HHs
• 2 rounds conducted so far: March/April 2009 and August-September 2009; government has not shared consolidated report yet
UNICEF initiatives (5): Indonesia
• UNICEF and WFP developed and piloted monitoring system to track impact of high food prices at the household level in 4 provinces, including Greater Jakarta, in 2008
• Government adopted this methodology and set up a Food and Nutrition Security Monitoring System (FNSMS) in June 2009• 4 provinces covered: East Java, NTT (Nusa Tengara Timur), Central
Sulawesi and West Kalimantan• 20 vulnerable districts– 5 per provinces; 1000 HHs• Districts selected base on 2005 food insecurity atlas
• Currently in pilot phase – first set of results in:• 14% HHs food insecure; 30% vulnerable• School absenteeism found in 21% of HHs with at least 1 school age child• 56% of surveyed HHs experienced difficulties due to ↑ food prices, ↑
health expenditures, lack of cash etc
Final thoughts
Key Strengths
• Early warning system to detect changes/trends as a crisis evolves
• Provides data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions
• To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations
• Flexibility in altering methodology
Challenges
• Reliable results can only be achieved if appropriate indicators are selected
• Not reliable estimates of prevalence: – danger for the media and other users
to interpret data as ‘national’
– Caution in reporting “baseline” data
• No international guidelines for sample size, indicators, definitions of vulnerability etc available yet
Sentinel sites and Surveys: Brief Descriptions
Sentinel Sites
• A number of sites (clinics, hospitals, police stations etc) are selected based on specific criteria
• A limited number of indicators for study/monitoring are selected
• Site staff trained to collect data.
• Data collection on-going
• Possibilities for quick data turnaround time
• Supplemented by other data collection activities
MICS
• A household survey
• Typically representative at the national level but also, depending on scope, at smaller sub-national areas
• Typically conducted by the national statistical offices using especially trained staff
• Collects data on indicators across all programmes
• Conducted periodically – average every 5 years
Sentinel sites and Surveys: Key Uses of Data
Sentinel Sites
• Early warning system to detect changes
• To provide localised data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions
• To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations
MICS
• Provide representative data with known statistical precision
• To monitor trends for indicators which are subject to both long and short-term changes
• To measure associations between variables i.e. household wealth, educational level of mother
Sentinel sites and Surveys: Inappropriate uses of data
Sentinel Sites
• Caution on reporting on ‘baseline’ data.
• If methodology is not clearly understood there is a danger for the media and other users to interpret data as ‘national’.
MICS
• Data not always reliable for rare events or for disaggregated data.
• Cannot determine causation and data may not be sufficient to answer many important policy questions
THANK YOU!
Overview
• Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial.
• Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery
• Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond:– Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of
relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports
– Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery
– Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges
• .
Overview
• Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial.
• Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery
• Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond:– Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of
relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports
– Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery
– Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges
• .
Other potential and observed outcomes
- Child and maternal health: - Wasting among poor urban children in Cambodia increased from 6 % in
2005 to 15.9 % in 2008, primarily due to rising food prices.
- Education: - Evidence of households of migrant workers in Viet Nam taking children
out of school and/or delaying school payments, or contemplating these as coping strategies.
- Similar news coming from Cambodia and the Pacific Island Countries.- Education expenditures seem to have been maintained.
- Job losses and income poverty: - 20-25 million migrant workers in China were retrenched. - World Bank estimates 10 mi. people in EAP who would have escaped
poverty this year will not be able to do so.
- Reduced Official Development Assistance: - UNCTAD figures show cumulative drop of 30% of ODA by the 5th year of
a banking crisis in a donor country.
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