the economic impact of immigration a ugust 10, 2004 rob grunewald, regional economic analyst phil...

The Economic Impact of Immigration

August 10, 2004

Rob Grunewald, Regional Economic AnalystPhil Davies, Staff Writer

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Additional Resources

•Region Magazine

•fedgazette

•minneapolisfed.org

Fed’s Duties

• Payment Systems

• Safety and Soundness

• Monetary Policy

Economic Impact of Immigration in Minnesota

• Immigrants fill job openings that would likely go unfilled.

• Social services for immigrants are investments, not just transfers.

Total (1000s) and Percent of Population Foreign Born, 2000

This will be a U.S. state map.

Minnesota Foreign Born Population, 2000

Asia

Africa

Latin America

Europe

Canada

Other

Total: 260,463

Percent of Population: 5.3

Change 1990-2000: 130%

United States Foreign Born Population, 2000

Asia

Africa

Latin America

Europe

Canada

Other

Total: 31,107,889

Percent of Population: 11.1%

Change 1990-2000: 57.4%

Wisconsin Foreign Born Population, 2000

Asia

Africa

Latin America

Europe

Canada

Other

Total: 193,751

Percent of Population: 3.6%

Change 1990-2000: 59%

South Dakota Foreign Born Population, 2000

Asia

Africa

Latin America

Europe

Canada

Other

Total: 13,495

Percent of Population: 1.8

Change 1990-2000: 75%

Top Ten Immigrant non-MSA Counties in Minnesota

0 2 4 6 8 10

Sibley

Blue Earth

Freeborn

Steele

Mower

Kandiyohi

Lyon

Rice

Watonwan

Nobles

Percent of Population Born in Asia, Africa or Latin America

Top 10 immigrant non-MSA counties

• Larger population

• Higher percent of employment in manufacturing

• Slightly higher levels of per capita personal income

Compared with rest of non-MSA counties

Population Growth, 1990-2000Minnesota Counties

0 5 10 15 20 25

Rest of non-MSACounties

Top 10 Immigrantnon-MSA Counties

MSAs

Percent Change

Growth in Total Population 1990-2000

Population Growth, 1990-2000Minnesota Counties

0 5 10 15 20 25

Rest of non-MSA Counties

Top 10Immigrant non-MSA Counties

MSAs

Growth in Total Population 1990-2000

Growth Without Immigration

Possible Effects of Immigration on Labor Markets

• Displace native born workers

• Depress wages

Similar changes in unemployment rates from 1990 to 2000.

0 2 4 6 8

Rest of non-MSA Counties

Top 10Immigrant non-MSA Counties

MSAs

Unemployment Rate

2000 1990

Income growth is also similar.

0 10 20 30 40 50

Rest of non-MSA Counties

Top 10Immigrant non-MSA Counties

MSAs

Percent Change in Income of Males 15 Years+ with Income, 1989-1999

Immigrant labor has been “a key, key factor in our success in keeping up with demand.”

-- John Swedeen

President of StarMark, Sioux Falls

“American kids don’t want to take those jobs; they leave for the [Twin] Cities.”

-- Zoltan Grossman

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire

Foreign born population has strong need for social and educational services.

0 5 10 15 20

Foreign Born

Total

Percent of Population Below Poverty, 2000

However, poverty rates of top immigrant non-MSA counties fell at similar pace as MSAs.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Rest of non-MSA Counties

Top 10Immigrant non-MSA Counties

MSAs

2000 1990

“My great grandfather had access to a Norwegian newspaper through the county, just as I’m trying to provide Somali newspapers on the computers for our Somali immigrants. For me it’s giving back…immigration is part of who we are, and this is just another point on the timeline.”

-- Pam Westby

Director of Pelican Rapids Public Library

Economic Impact of Immigration in Minnesota

• Immigrants fill job openings that would likely go unfilled.

• Social services for immigrants are investments, not just transfers.

Per Capita Personal Income, 2000Minnesota Counties

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Rest of non-MSA Counties

Top 10Immigrant non-MSA Counties

MSAs

Dollars