the emerging fertilizer value chain in africasoybeaninnovationlab.illinois.edu/sites... ·...

The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in Africa: Essential for Commercial Smallholder Agriculture

Pedro A Sanchez

Research Professor of Tropical Soils

Soil & Water Sciences Department

University of Florida

Gainesville, FL

pedrosanchez@ufl.edu

Commercial Agriculture in Tropical Environments

Third International Food Security Symposium

University of Illinois

April 3 2017

But still full of

poor people

Africa is huge. Sub-Saharan Africa is rich in resources

There is a link between unhealthy

soils and unhealthy people

PA Sanchez, MS Swaminathan. 2005. The

Lancet 365: 442–44

Chirazuru, Malawi 2002

The Poverty Trap: Poor soils result in low yields and

low household capital. Low household capital prevents

investments in soil nutrients, which is a

primary constraint on soil productivity. CB Barrett, LEM Bevis. 2015. Nature Geoscience 8: 907-912.

SS Africa 1 16

Latin America 3 48

South & Southeast Asia 3 48

China, South Africa 5 80

N. America, Europe,

Japan

10 160

Sanchez 2015. Nature Plants 1: 1-2.

Why? There is a major biophysical

reason and a major economic reason

1. Soil fertility depletion is extreme in smallholder

farms in Africa; the key entry point is not improved

varieties or water but replenishing soil nutrients.

Known this for decades*.

2. A broken or nonexistent value chain:

*See new study by Folberth et al, 2013. Agricultural Systems 119: 22-34.

21st Century African Green Revolution

AGRA created in 2006 by the Gates and

Rockefeller Foundations

Tipping points

Better Governance 2006

The Private Sector Moves In

2006AGRA Forum 2012: A Movement

Private Sector Involvement

2006 +

Overcame allergy from UN and some

governments.

Refined Objective: From small-scale

subsistence farming to farming as a

business.

New Paradigm: Private sector-led,

government-enabled development.

Strategy

Two Legs

SEED FERTILIZER

One Leg

Good Seed No Fertilizer Mwandama, Malawi 2013

One Leg

Bad Seed with Fertilizer Chaffa Valley, Ethiopia 2003

Two Legs

Good Seed and Good FertilizerSauri, Kenya 2005

No Legs

Bad seed, no fertilizerSauri, Kenya 2002

Seed Systems: Successful value chain

Fertilizer Value ChainPublic Sector+ donors Private Sector+ financing

1. Databases/Soil Maps ↓

2. Soil Testing/Recommendations ↓

3. Crop response/Field verification ↓

4. Blenders ↓

5. Agrodealers ↓

6. Extension ↓

7. Farmers ↓

8. Feedback↑

Link 1

Put together databases of soil maps

and fertilizer response trials.

Soil Maps where responses to

individual nutrients are expected.

0 - 5 cm5 – 15 cm15 – 30 cm

30 – 60 cm

60-100 cm

100-200 cmEffective depth

AfSIS: Digital Map of Soil Properties

Sanchez et al. 2009. Science, 385: 680-681

Digital maps of soil properties are now available but algorithms are needed to correlate the different methodsSpectroscopy cannot yet detect soil test extractions

Link 2 SoilDoc: A portable lab in a box. Uses batteries, bottled water available all over

Africa and an Android tablet

Sending results to the cloud

22

Link 3: Crop Response Trials;

Recommendations

Domain: Agrodealer´ s working areas

(10 – 30 km).

Recommend formulas: 1 - 3 blends

Recommended rates specific for

different crops.

Link 4: Blending PlantsImport or use local raw materials and blend locally, providing

flexibility

Fertilizer recommendations formulated for specific agrodealer domains.

Link 5: Agrodealers: Training, Certification, Technical Advice

Agrodealers trained in fertilizers and seeds sell to farmers.

Link 6:A New Generation of Private Extension Workers

Link 7: Farmers

Getting the right message on crops,

agronomy, etc.

Up to date, cellphone-based fertilizer

recommendations

Include Biologically Active Carbon

recommendation and ways to eliminate

soil compaction

Farmer associations—warehouse

receipts

Electronic wallet

Cereal Banks:

doubling prices

Price ksh/90 kg bag:

At farm gate (August 05): 700

Cereal bank sold (April 06): 1450

Yala Market Center of

Sauri Millennium Village

No longer growing maizeSauri, Kenya 2015

Young people get into business

Link 8: Feedback

Feedback via social media will rate the

fertilizer recommendations, and

performance of individual agrodealers

their farmers and extension workers.

Crop yield data will be estimated from

farmers plus agronomic use efficiency

(kg grain/ kg of nutrient fertilizer

applied), and value to cost ratios.

Commitment: Increase from 8 to 50kg/ha NPK by 2015

Results: Malawi: 48 kg/ha NPK

Zambia: 43

Mozambique: 10

Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016

Progress

TimeTime

Fer

tiliz

er u

se (

kgN

PK

/ha)

Mozambique Malawi Zambia

From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016

Fertilizer use (kg/ha)

Mai

ze y

ield

(to

n/h

a)

Mozambique Malawi Zambia

From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016

2014 :1.55

FA0STAT 2015

Improve Efficiency

Low agronomic use efficiency: 15 kg grain/kg N;

Must increase agronomic use efficiency to 25 kg

grain/kg N applied.

Cereal yields should reach 3 tons/ha or equivalents.

Good agronomy: planting date, spacing, seed

density, inputs arriving on time, etc.

Move to high-value crops and livestock products.

Climate change adaptation: By increasing yields

from 1 to 3 tons/ha plant transpiration from soil

moisture is doubled or tripled.

Organic fertilizers need financial stimulus

Climate change is

with us

Glacier coverage on

Mount Kilimanjaro.

Thompson (2010)

1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha

87% E

Adaptation: Increasing yields in Africa can

improve water use efficiency

How about Organic Fertilizers?

Tephrosia fallow: a nitrogen factory right in her field

Captures 150 kg

N/ha

Worth $130

Recycles K,

micronutrients

Adds carbon

Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?

Credits

Subsidies

Rewards?

The Economist March 12, 2016

“ The farms of Africa are prospering at least thanks to persistence,

technology and decent government”