the energy challenge and green power professor k.b. chan chairman, hong kong electronic industries...
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The Energy ChallengeThe Energy Challengeandand
GreenGreen Power Power
Professor K.B. ChanChairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association
WEFShenzhen, ChinaNovember 15, 2009
Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0
ContentsThe Global problems
The energy challenge
The CO2 issue
What actions to take?
Renewable
100% Green Power?
Conclusion
Page 3
HKEIAThe Global Problems
• 1. Population 2009 6.8 billion
2040 9 billion + ( ~ 30% increase )• 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources?
Land Food Raw Material Air
Energy Water• 3. Economy
Growth Poverty• 4. Environment
Climate Pollution Waste
Page 4
HKEIAThe Energy Challenge
• Currently the world consumes total energy of
~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita
( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion )
• By 2030 it will be
~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase
due to growth in economy, population
• Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009
USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2
Page 5
HKEIA
World’s primary energy supply :
• 80% - burning fossil fuels• 43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas• 10% - burning combustible
renewables and waste• 5% - nuclear• 5% - hydro• 0.5%- geothermal, solar, wind, . . .
Page 6
HKEIA
% of electrical output World China
Coal 41% 80%
Oil 6% 2%
Gas 20% 0.5%
Nuclear 15% 0.2%
Hydro 16% 15%
Bio & waste 1.3% -
Geo 0.3% -
Wind 0.7% 1.4%
Solar* 0.02 -
~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy
Electricity –
Page 7
HKEIAFossil fuel is running out soon!
Energy Timescales
Years Remaining
Oil 40 ~ 50
Natural Gas 60
Coal 120 ~ 200
If economic & population growth increase faster, the above period will shorten!
Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (www.bp.com)
Page 9
HKEIAThe CO2 issueThe CO2 issue
World Carbon DioxideEmission, Billion Metric Tons
29.0 30.433.1
35.437.9
40.4
31.0
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
- Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr)- World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6,- China - 4.6, Bangladesh - 0.25
Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009
Page 10
HKEIAGlobal warming & Pollution - Forecast
2050, sea level rise 1 meter
10% world populations will lose their homelands
2050 in China, output of crops will down 30% due to water shortage
Premature deaths caused by air pollution in each year:
Globally - 2 million deaths, China 650,000, India - 530,000,
USA - 41,000
Page 11
HKEIAUrgent tasks ahead for the world
• Reverse global warming • Reduce CO2 emission• Optimize fossil fuel consumption• Develop alternative energy source• Transition to 100% sustainable Green power• Maintain balanced economic growth
• Mission impossible???
Page 12
HKEIA What actions to take?
• 1. Reduce energy use• 2. De-carbonization• 3. Develop sustainable Green Power• 4. Devise economic tools & political will power to make the above happenQuestions :• 1. Is there a solution at all?• 2. Too little & too late?
Page 13
HKEIAReduce energy use
Where used – developed economy
Industry ~ 25%
Transport ~ 25%
Built/Environment/appliance ~ 50%
( private & commercial )
Industry – not much can be done! Could use more for economic growth
Page 14
HKEIABuilt/Environment/Appliance
• Improve in building design can save > 30%
Housing stock take 100 years turn over• Efficient appliance, heating & cooling
Change of lifestyle
Investment• Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use
replace incandescent bulb by LED
even 100% cut consumption by 3%
Above can help but not enough!
Page 15
HKEIATransport
• 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030• Almost 100% internal combustion engine, huge consumption of oil & emit CO2• Solution :• 1. More efficient engine by 50% just use less oil & less CO2• 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity• 3. Hydrogen car too expensive and no infrastructure Pace of introduction of green cars too slow!
Page 16
HKEIACO2 target – IEA 450 scenario
CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045, then declines very slowly to 450 ppm
Page 17
HKEIADe-carbonization
NeutralizationNeutralization Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can
neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO2 per year
The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 yearsHowever, forest is disappearing fast due to
urbanization and over exploit of woodAction : reduce wood usage find alternative e.g. bamboo re-forest
Page 18
HKEIADe-carbonization
• CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage
• As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main electricity generation till 2030 and beyond, another 100 years?
• Design & build higher efficient power plants
• Develop and deploy technology to capture and burial of CO2 from power stations and large industrial plants!
Page 19
HKEIARenewable energy & Green Power
• 1. Biofuel
• 2. Hydro & tidal
• 3. Geothermal
• 4. Wind
• 5. Solar
• 6. Nuclear
Page 20
HKEIA Biofuel
• 1. Ethanol –• 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane
Only 2% gain Disrupt food chain
• 1.2 G2 - cellulose Ready in 2013? Scale up issue
• 2. Biomass• 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost Technology not ready May upset environment ** Both still emit CO2, just less. Use to reduce oil consumption
Page 21
HKEIAHydro, tidal, geothermal, wind
• 1. Hydro – most available sites identified• 2. Tidal – specific region• 3. Geothermal – specific region
• 4. Wind Mature technology however unstable
only 25% efficiency
Page 22
HKEIASolar
• 1. Concentrate• 2. Photovoltaic• • Unstable - sun dependent• Night time issue• Storage issue• Both technology are mature• Highly scalable• Need cost down• Government incentive
Page 23
HKEIANuclear
• 1. Fission• Good solution• Safe but social barrier• Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate• Waste treatment• Fear of “making the bomb”• 2. Fast breeder • Small scale & takes 12 years cycle• 3. Thorium• Experimental • 4. Fusion• Theoretical best solution but not yet success
Page 24
HKEIAThe challenge – 100% Green Power
• To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs
• Hydro ~ 1.5 TW
• Nuclear ~ 1 TW
• Wind ~ 3.5 TW
• Solar ~ 2.5 TW Concentrate
• 2.5 TW Photovoltaic
Page 25
HKEIAWe need to build - minimum
• 300 more hydro stations @ 1 GW• 1,000 nuclear power stations @ 1 GW • 700,000 large wind turbines @ 5 mW• 8,300 solar concentrates @ 300mW• 8,300 solar farms @ 300mW
• Efficiency not taking into account!
• Other Issues : Investment? Time required? Trigger other environmental issues? Engineering man power?
Page 26
HKEIAThe material hurdle
• The world does not have enough critical raw materials to build them
• Silver• Lithium• Indium• Tellurium• Platinum• Rare earth elements
Page 28
HKEIAThe conclusion 1
• Huge increase in energy demand and growing• Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2• Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time• The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by
Reduction in consumption
De-carbonization
Efficient power plants
Efficient appliance, building, cars
Change in lifestyle
Page 29
HKEIAThe conclusion 2
• Big challenge in developing & deploying
environmental friendly technology• All formats are needed, main ones are
hydro, wind, solar, nuclear• Many hurdles to overcome• Huge R&D effort • Huge investment & long build up time• Global effort• Political will power is the final key!
The electronic industry is The electronic industry is deeply involved in all deeply involved in all
aspects.aspects.We are part of the We are part of the solutionsolution
as well as part of the as well as part of the problemproblem!!
Action is Action is Now!Now! Do not wait for CopenhagenDo not wait for Copenhagen
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