the future of e-commerce (cs conference)- · pdf filea new model: e-commerce ecosystem...
Post on 08-Feb-2018
215 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of E-commerce
December 3, 2014
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements based on our
current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about us, our industry and the regulatory environment in which we
and companies integral to our ecosystem operate. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other
factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied
by the forward-looking statements, including those risks, uncertainties and other factors identified in the prospectus under the
sections titled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”. In
some cases, these forward-looking statements can be identified by words or phrases such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “anticipate,”
“aim,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “potential,” “continue,” “is/are likely to” or other similar expressions. The forward-
looking statements included in this presentation may relate to, among others: (a) our growth strategies; (b) our future business
development, financial condition and results of operations; (c) trends in online and mobile commerce, both globally and in the
People’s Republic of China (“PRC”); (d) competition in our industry; (e) fluctuations in general economic and business conditions in
China; (f) expected changes in our revenues and certain cost and expense items and our operating margins; (g) the regulatory
2
China; (f) expected changes in our revenues and certain cost and expense items and our operating margins; (g) the regulatory
environment in which we and companies integral to our ecosystem operate; (h) our proposed use of proceeds from this offering;
and (i) assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. The global and PRC Internet, retail, wholesale, online and mobile
commerce, cloud computing and data industries market may not grow at the rates projected by market data, or at all. The failure of
these industries or markets to grow at the projected rates may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition
and results of operations and the market price of our securities. If any one or more of the assumptions underlying the market data
turns out to be incorrect, actual results may differ from the projections based on these assumptions. You should not place undue
reliance on these forward-looking statements.
Dr. Ming ZENG
3
Chief Strategy Officer
11.11 Shopping Festival : 2013 vs 2014
2014(2)2013
Total GMV(1):
vs
RMB 57.1Bn
(US$9.3Bn)
RMB 36.2Bn
(US$5.8Bn)
Time-spending to achieve:
(RMB Bn)
YoY
Growth (%)57.7%
GMV Growth
4
~ 3mins~ 6mins
~ 14mins~ 38mins
~ 38mins> 5 hrs
► RMB 1Bn GMV
Time-spending to achieve:
Note:
(1) All 11.11 GMV settled through Alipay
(2) All 2014 11.11 GMV and other figures are subject to final auditing following conclusion of the event.
36.2
57.1
2013 2014
► RMB 5Bn GMV
► RMB 10Bn GMV
36.20
57.11
GMV on 11.11 Shopping Festival (RMB Bn)
11.11 Shopping Festival : GMV
(1)
0.05 0.943.36
19.10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5
Note:
(1) All 11.11 GMV settled through Alipay
(2) The above 11.11 GMV for 2009 – 2012 are unaudited.
(3) The 11.11 GMV for 2014 is unaudited and is subject to final auditing following conclusion of the event.
What’s going on?
Internet is fundamentally Internet is fundamentally
transforming business in China
6
China and U.S. E-commerce Comparison
$297 $339
$298
$395
$488
E-commerce Market (2009A -2015E)
(US$ Bn)
$157 $176
$195 $225
$259
$297
$39 $68
$121
$207
$298
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
US China
7
28.9%
34.3%
38.3%
42.1%
45.8% 46.9%
China’s Rapid Internet Growth
China’s Internet population grew >600% over past ten years
China Internet Population and Penetration
(Million) (%)
80 94 111 137210
298384
457513
564618 632
6.2% 7.2% 8.5%
10.5%
16.0%
22.6%
28.9%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Internet User Population Internet Penetration
Source: CNNIC
Note: (1) 2014 Internet population and penetration rate are as of June 30, 2014 8
(1)
Rapid Growth in China’s Online Shoppers
28.1%
35.1%
37.9%
42.9%
48.9%
52.5%
China Online Shopper Population and Penetration
(Million) %
China’s online shoppers population has grown tremendously
9
34 46 74108
161194
242302
332
24.5%22.2%
24.8%28.1%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
No. of Online Shoppers Online Shopper Penetration
Source: CNNIC
Note: (1) 2014 Internet population and penetration rate are as of June 30, 2014
(1)
China’s Retail Infrastructure is Weak…
3,810
3,22223.9
Shopping Mall Penetration
2013
Population1,361MM50.2MM317.3MM65.8MM
► Shopping malls in China are much less prevalent than in developed countries
► Vast China’s population is greatly underserved!
1,570
368
12.0
7.3
2.4
France U.S. South Korea China
No. of Shopping Malls Malls per Million People
10Source:
(1) Population - INSEE, Korean Statistical Information Service, United States Census Bureau, Statistics Korea, National Bureau of Statistics of China
…but Internet Infrastructure is Strong
China’s Internet penetration rate
(46%) approaches that of
developed countries…
…but the scale of retailer
concentration lags far behind.
UK
France
Germany
South Korea
USA
E-commerce steps in to fill the gap!
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
Japan
Brazil
China (Urban)
India
Retailer Concentration Internet Penetration (%/Population)
11
The Big Bang of Taobao
(RMB Bn)
Taobao’s GMV growth in a decade
663
1,077
1,6781,678
GMV (Taobao Marketplace + Tmall)
12
For 12M
ended March
1 7 14 42 98183
329
663
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2012Total GMV
► With Taobao growing so fast, many third-party services flourished (e.g. logistics providers, IT services)
► Instead of converting Taobao to a traditional B2C model, we
A New Model: E-commerce Ecosystem
Instead of converting Taobao to a traditional B2C model, we recognized the power of an eco-system approach and made that our strategy in 2008
► The core of the eco-system is a dynamic market built on Internet and Big Data
► Eventually, every step of the business process will be transformed, from advertising, to sales, to distribution, to logistics, to supply chain.
► This will not merely be the “digitization” of each piece, but rather an
And it keeps evolving…
► This will not merely be the “digitization” of each piece, but rather an end-to-end reinvention of a native e-business model.
The Future: C2B
Mass Customization / Mass Customization /
Personalization Personalization
Consumer Centric/DrivenConsumer Centric/Driven
Consumers are much more empowered
Direct links between consumer-business
From Supply Chain From Supply Chain
Management to Value Management to Value
Network CoordinationNetwork Coordination
RealReal--time time
Data Sharing Data Sharing
► C2B
► Customization
► Differentiation
► Value
Industry versus information Economy
Industry Economy Information Economy
► B2C
► Standardization
► Mass production
► Low Cost vs► Value
► Network
► Social Collaboration
► Self Organizing
► Low Cost
► Assembly Line
► Supply Chain
► Hierarchy
vs
Web Web ‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧ EcologicalEcological‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧ EnableEnableLinearLinear‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧MechanicalMechanical‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧ ControlControl
The Future of Business
A ParadigmA Paradigm ShiftShift
B2C C2B Industry Information
Emerging China
Model
Emerging
Markets
Model
Impact to developed B2C models?
top related