the future of energy in germany – towards an age of renewables dr. georg maue, first secretary...
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The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables
Dr. Georg Maue, First Secretary Climate and Energy Policy Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany 2300 M Street NW, Suite 300 , Washington, DC 20037 Tel: +1 (202) 4715 538 Fax: +1 (202) 298 4391 E-mail: wi-6@wash.diplo.de
2
Introducing the „Energiewende“ (1. Message)
There is abundance of Renewables – even in Germany
in addition: with energy efficiency we only need a fraction of the today’s demand!
DemandRE Potential
3
US, Spain have large solar potentials, but even with Germany‘s small potential...
4
...huge installed capacities are possible and efficient (provided a policy support)
Today‘s installed PV
Cap. in Germany is over 27.000
MW !
5
an example for US
6
Introducing the „Energiewende“ (2. Message)
The Energiewende is a VERY COMPLEX PROCESS
Why? It means transforming almost all of today's energy supply it involves all players in the energy business and all consumers it is about a new design of supply and demand chains and patterns etc.
This entails.. mechanisms and costs/benefits are hardly understood misleading messages by politics, lobbies and media
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Introducing the „Energiewende“ (3. Message)
The Energiewende offers immense BENEFITS
for economy, environment and energy security
Why? efficiency saves energy demand and costs new investments, new jobs, more innovation and research costs for traditional fuels and power plants rise, those for RE installations
decrease drastic reduction of emissions (GHG and pollutants)
This entails: all serious projections show the Energiewende path is clearly
advantageous compared to the business as usual for economy, society and climate
8
Guidelines for political
action
The BASIS: A triangle of three energy policy goals
Economicefficiency
Environmentalcompatibility
Supply security
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Energy supply in Germany today:
Not secure We import 70% infinite energy sources Not efficient Fossil fuels cost rise, they have high
external costs Not environmentally compatible Greenhouse gases
and air pollutants
we need to restructure towards sustainable energy
supply
The status quo
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1. secure: sustainable and reliable energy ressources (less imports)
2. economic: long term at affordable prices (no/less external costs)
3. environmental friendly: no/less emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gases
only renewable energies meet these criteria energy concept concentrates on renewable energies
and energy efficiency (in order to reduce the
denominator (= energy demand))
What does sustainable energy policy mean?
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The Energy Concept:Approach:
Long-term, comprehensive and specific:
1. Long-term: Timeline 20502. Comprehensive: All relevant sectors 3. Specific:
Targets Measures: ca. 180 specific measures Funding Monitoring
The „Generation-Programme“The German Government's Energy Concept
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Targets of the energy concept
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1. Renewable energy sources: Rapid, continuous expansion Cost-efficient and environmentally
friendly
2. Future grids: Flexible and powerful Integration of
electricity from renewable sources
3. Efficiency: Reduce energy
consumption Ensure efficiency
Energy Concept: A three-pronged approach
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Effects of the German nuclear phase out
• In the aftermath of the Fukushima catastrophe Germany shut down the 7 eldest NPP
• The German Energy Transformation in June 2011 laid down to speed up the implementation of the energy concept and to phase out nuclear power faster (similar to the 2001 decision)
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Power companies, some industries and critics said this will: let electricity prices (spot market and
futures) explode,CO2 certificate prices will increase (by 5 €/t
CO2)Germany will become net importer of
electricity the grid will collapse – black outs at
ChristmasCO2 emissions will rise
Effects of the German nuclear phase out
16
The reality looks like:
after a short increase during spring, electricity prices on the stock market continued to fall and are at 5-years low
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CO2 prices went down by 60 %!
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Germany remains net electricity exporter2.
3
16.3
30.3
13.4
27.4
11.5
25.5 8.6
22.6 6.7
20.7 3.8
17.8
31.8
14.9
28.9
12.1
0
26.1
0
9.11
23.1
1
7.12
21.1
2
R1-150.000,00
-100.000,00
-50.000,00
0,00
50.000,00
100.000,00
150.000,00
200.000,00
MW
h
Tag
Export- u. Importsalden Strom März 2011 - Januar 2012
Exporte
Import
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GHG emissions continued to decrease while economy rose
20
Compensation of NPP
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Targets and Success so far with Renewable Energies
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Summary
The transformation of the German energy system (the „Energiewende“)
1. is needed to achieve sustainable energy supply
2. is beneficial: for economy (costs, energy security), society (jobs) and climate
3. is a complex task, which needs a generation to implement it
4. needs political will and a programme: the Energy Concept 2050
5. Renewables, intelligent grids and energy efficiency are key !
If it happens in Germany, it can happen everywhere!
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