the human population and urbanization
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Chapter 6
The Human Population and Urbanization
Key Concepts
Factors affecting population size
Human population problems
Managing population problems
Urban growth
Resource and environmental problems in urban areas
Transportation in urban areas
Achieving sustainable cities
Is the World Overpopulated?
7.2 - 10.6 billion people by 2050
Limited resources
Environmental impacts (I=PAT)
Some say no- Longer lifespans
Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase
Religion and population growth
Freedom and population growth
Poverty- 20% people without basic necessities
Ecological footprint
Fig. 6-1, p. 94
Is the World Overpopulated?
Fig. 6-1, p. 94
Click for Current US and World Population
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year
Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year
Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries)
Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years
Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developedcountries
All developingcountries
Developingcountries
(w/o China)
21
9
11
10
24
8
27
9
Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
World’s birth rate = 2.1%
World’s death rate = 0.9%
World’s pop. Growth rate = 1.2%
Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
UnitedStates
NorthAmerica
Europe
3814
22
6
20
7
18
7
14
8
148
10
12
Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
Animation
Current and projected population sizes by region.
How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly?
1. Human intelligence and adaptation- enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones
2. Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area
3. Medical technologies and sanitation- controls infectious disease
Describing Population Changes Replacement-level fertility=
# children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx 2.1 - 2.4)
Total fertility rate (TFR)= average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0)
Projecting global populations: 2050 projected pop. = 7.2-10.6 billionMost growth (97%) expected in developing countries
US fertility rates- see figure 6-4, p. 98
World Population Projections
Fig. 6-2, p. 96
Fig. 6-4, p. 98
US Fertility Rates (1917-2005)
47 years
77 years
8%
81%
15%
83%
10%
98%
2%
99%
10%
52%
$15
$3
1.2
5.8
1900
2000
Life expectancy
Married women workingoutside the home
High school graduates
Homes with flush toilets
Homes with electricity
Living in suburbs
Hourly manufacturing jobwage (adjusted for inflation)
Homocides per100,000 people Fig. 6-5, p. 99
Major Changes in US Society (1900-2000)
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates ***
Child labor- very important in developing countries
Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries
Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age
Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities
Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities
Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR
Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years
Abortion- 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal)
Availability of birth control
Culture, religious values, and traditions
Extremely Effective
Highly Effective
Total abstinence
Sterilization
Vaginal ring
IUD with slow-releasehormones
IUD plus spermicide
Vaginal pouch(“female condom”)
IUD
Condom (good brand)plus spermicide
Oral contraceptive
100%
99.6%
98-99%
98%
98%
97%
95%
95%
93%
Very Effective Birth Control Methods
Effective
Cervical cap
Condom (good brand)
Diaphragm plusspermicide
Rhythm method (Billings,Sympto-Thermal)
Vaginal sponge impreg-nated with spermicide
Spermicide (foam)
89%
86%
84%
84%
83%
82%
Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods
Moderately Effective
Unreliable
Spermicide (creams,jellies, suppositories)
Withdrawal
Rhythm method (dailytemperature readings)
Condom (cheap brand)
Douche
Chance (no method)
75%
74%
74%
70%
40%
10%
Least Effective Birth Control Methods
Factors Affecting Death Rates
Life expectancy: global average years = 69
Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care)46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA
Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply
Immigration into the US 41% of annual population growth
Source of immigrants into the USPre 1960: Mostly EuropePost 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%)
Arguments to reduce immigration: 58% support• Allow population to stabilize • Reduce environmental impact
Arguments for immigration• “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’• Tax revenues $$$• immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs• After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire
Fig. 6-6, p. 102
Expanding RapidlyGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Male Female
Prereproductive ages 0-14 Reproductive ages 15-44 Postreproductive ages 45-85+
Population Age Structures
Male Female Male Female Male Female
Expanding SlowlyUnited States
AustraliaCanada
StableSpain
AustriaGreece
DecliningGermanyBulgaria
Italy
In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old
1.5 - 3% 0.3 - 1.4% 0 - 0.2% Negative growth
Animation
Examples of age structure interaction
Fig. 6-8, p. 103
Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation
Animation
U.S. age structure interaction.
Effects of Population Decline 40 nations have stable or declining populations
UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA)
Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems
Labor and social security problems
Social and economic impacts of AIDS
Solutions: Influencing Population Size
***Demographic transition
Family planning
Improve health care
Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138
Developing national population policies
Improve education, especially for women
Increase involvement of men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Reduce unsustainable consumption
Fig. 6-10, p. 105
Stage 1Preindustrial
Stage 2Transitional
Stage 3Industrial
Stage 4Postindustrial
Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Growth rate over time
Demographic Transition
Low
High
Rel
ati
ve
po
pu
lati
on
siz
e
Bir
th r
ate
an
d d
eath
rat
e(n
um
ber
per
1,0
00 p
er
yea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Animation- Demographic transition model
Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in
India
Poor planning of family planning programs
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of administrative and financial support
Case Study: Family Planning in China
Economic incentives- extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$
Free medical care for participants
Preferential treatment for participants- free school tuition
Very coercive and intrusive- free sterilization, contraception,
Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide
China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline
Percentageof world
population
Population
Population (2025)(estimated)
Illiteracy (%of adults)
Population under age 15(%)
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
Infant mortality rate
Life expectancy
GDP PPP per capita
17%20%
1.1 billion1.3 billion
1.4 billion1.63 billion
47%17%
36%22%
1.6%0.6%
3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
6427
62 years 71 years
$2,880 $4,980
Demographic Data on India and China
8147
Percent living below $2 per day
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