the lmi training institute orientation for new lmi directors

THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE

Orientation for New LMI Directors

Acknowledgments

• Class funded by the Workforce Information Council

• Administered under contract by the LMI Training Institute

• Supported by the NASWA LMI Committee

Labor Market Institute

Labor

Market

Information

Labor Market Information

A dynamic and systematic approach to data—designed to meet the changing needs of our customers

Labor Market Information

Or, to put it more simply …

Basically, it’s any data or analysis that relates to the workforce.

Labor Market Information

Who are our Who are our customerscustomers??????

Data or Information??

• Customer Driven

• Determine Needs

• Determine Method of Delivery

LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE

The Workforce System: A General History

The Roots of the System - ES

• Free public Employment Service – Generally thought to begin in medieval times

• Concept in 15th/16th Century Europe• First public registry of jobs/job-seekers in

Nuremburg, Germany in 1431• Early 1900s – nationwide in eight

European countries plus Canada, New Zealand and South Africa

The Roots of the System - UI

• First public UI System – Berne, Switzerland in 1893 (subsidized public to which workers could contribute)

• Originator of present system in Ghent, Belgium in 1901 (tied monthly benefit to unemployment rate)

• Spread to 90 cities in Europe in early 1900s and nationally in France, Norway and Denmark

• First compulsory law – Great Britain in 1911

The United States Experience

• New York City 1834 – first public employment office followed by first state-directed public employment system in Ohio in1890

• Massachusetts 1869 – first state bureau of labor statistics – by 1883, in 12 more states

• June 27, 1884 – Bureau of Labor created in Department of Interior

• Bureau of Labor’s mission: “to collect information upon the subject of labor, its relations to capital, the hours of labor and the earnings of laboring men and women, and the means of promoting their material, social, intellectual and moral prosperity”

• Created first national employment data in 1916

The United States Experience

• Federal involvement in ES in 1907 with Department of Commerce and Labor

• First federal employment office on Ellis Island

• Department of Labor separated in 1913

• By then, 62 federal public employment offices in 19 states

• Wisconsin passed first statewide UI law

• June 6, 1933: FDR signed Wagner-Peyser Act and Employment Service was established – full federal/state system

• Social Security Act of 1935 created federal/state Unemployment Insurance system

• Most states started Research and Statistics sections in the 1930s as part of process

The Birth of Federal/State LMI

• In 1945, national series to yield employment estimates for each state

• State agencies collected data; regional offices compiled figures; all data sent to DC to construct national estimates

• Budget cuts in 1947: complete compilation of numbers shifted to states under cooperative agreements

• By 1949, all states involved (start of CES)

The Last Fifty Years

• Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962 – shift to most in need

• Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973 – established “comprehensive LMI system” – created Division of LMI – provided funding – core products set – major ETA involvement

• FY 1976 – line-item LMI funding• Job Training Partnership Act of 1982 – spelled

out LMI requirement explicitly – more local decision making

The Last Fifty Years

• Levitan Commission (National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics): funding and oversight transferred to BLS from ETA in FY 1984 – BLS started requiring contractual agreements

• ETA disavowed any responsibility for LMI – Division of Labor Market Information abolished

1990s and 2000s

• Birth of America’s Labor Market Information System in 1994

• Consortia-based decision making

• Extensive funding from ETA

• Workforce Investment Act of 1998

• Specifies LMI as part of the system with funding

• Establishes one-stop system of which LMI is a part

Funding for the System

• BLS Cooperative Agreements – One Year

• ETA Workforce Information Grant – Three Years

• Different Years• Other Funding

Sources

Meeting Customer Needs

• Varied customers, varied needs

• Information types – sometimes requires additional feedback

• Data versus information

• Different delivery methods depending upon customer

• One size does not fit all customers.

Requirements of ETA

• Public Access to Data

• Workforce Information Database

• Occupational Employment Projections

• Annual economic analysis report

• Customer Feedback

• Support for Workforce Investment Boards

• Outreach• Special research

studies

Website Options

• Vendors: CIBER, Geographic Solutions, Other In-state options

• Oregon: www.qualityinfo.org• Washington:

www.workforceexplorer.com• Virginia:

www.vawc.virginia.gov/analyzer

WIRED Grants

• Workforce Innovation and Regional Economic Development• Encourages regional communities to partner and leverage

assets and resources• Requires extensive labor market information• Currently around 40 WIRED regions• www.doleta.wired

Dealing with the Media

• Hard Lessons• Keep It Simple• Never Give Opinions• Stand By the Facts• Role Varies State to State

Working with Administrators

• The Boss is always right.• BLS Restrictions• Estimating versus Actual• Budget Constraints versus Getting

the Work Done• Different Organizational Entities

Basic Terminology

Speaking the Language –

Acronyms and Concepts

Labor Force Terms and Concepts

• Employed– Worked at least one hour for pay

– During the week that includes the 12th

• Unemployed

– No job attachment

– Able, available for and actively

seeking work

– Can be experienced or a new or re-entrant

Labor Force Terms & Concepts

• Labor Force– 16+ years old– Employed + Unemployed

• Unemployment rate– Unemployed ÷ Labor Force

• Expressed as %

• Labor Force Participation rate– Labor Force ÷ Working Age

Population

Labor Force Terms & Concepts

• Discouraged Workers

– Harder to define and sometimes undercounted

– Generally are on long-term layoff with no immediate prospects

• Underemployment

– Also hard to define and count

– Basically can be anyone working below their skill level

– Might be underemployed by choice

LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE

BLS Cooperative Programs

BLS Cooperative Programs

The foundation uponwhich most of our

datarests …

Next on the Agenda

The Quarterly Census of

Employment and Wages (QCEW)

Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

The History

• Began with national UI system in 1938

• BLS assumed responsibility in 1972.

• Expanded scope of program with UI coverage

– Initially UI only covered firms who employed 8 or more workers at least 20 weeks per year

– Now about 96% of total wage and salary employment covered

Data Sources for QCEW

• UI quarterly contribution reports

• UCFE federal agency employment

• Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices

– Multiple establishment detail (MWR)

– Industrial coding (annual refile survey)

– Follow-ups triggered by edits

Uses of QCEW Data

• Employment benchmarks for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs

• — CES, OES & OSHA

• Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis – Personal income– State and national

product

• Local planning– Only consistent source

of county employment and wages by industry

• Analysis requiring universe or detailed data

QCEW Limitations & Changes

• Some employment for large firms may be reported in the wrong areas.

• Some firms report total number of employees in a quarter as employment for each month.

• Data is not a time series.– No wedging of changes by industry or area from the

following:• Annual refile survey• Changes in multi-establishment reporting

• Shift to NAICS — Break in series

Next on the Agenda

The Current Employment

Statistics (CES) Program

History of CES

• First BLS employment surveys in 1915

• Hours and earnings in 1933 in response to Great Depression

• Employment estimates for all states by 1940

• Federal/state relationship by 1949

Coverage Differences Between CES & QCEW

• The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not included in QCEW:

– Full commission salespersons

– Elected and appointed government officials

– Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts

Data Sources for CES

• Covered employment from QCEW, supplemented with non-covered adjustments, is used to benchmark levels.

• A monthly employer survey is a major part of the program, using a variety of collection methods.

Uses of CES

• A primary economic indicator of employment, earnings, and working hours for national, state, and selected areas

• Total employment growth used by Federal Reserve

• Incorporated in preliminary estimates of National Product and Income

• Incorporated into productivity estimates

CES Limitations & Changes

• Sample size limits state and area industry detail (switch to probability method).

• Sum-of-states employment does not equal national total.

• Estimates for many substate areas are not funded.

• Though accuracy exceeds that of other economic data, benchmark revisions still cause criticism.

• Earnings are for production workers and are not available for many state industries.

CES Birth-Death Factor

• CES samples contain firms that may go out of business, but not firms that are just beginning.– Over time, this causes

estimates based only on sample to underestimate employment

• An adjustment is added by BLS to reduce magnitude of benchmark revisions.

Example:– Previous month’s

estimate = 10,000

– Sample trend = 1.0100

– Bias adjustment factor = .0040

– Adjusted trend factor = 1.0140

– Current month’s estimate

= 10,140

And now on to…

The Occupational Employment Statistics

(OES) Program

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

• OES: An employer survey which produces employment and wage-rate estimates by occupation and industry for states and areas

• BLS and ETA originally shared responsibility with the states.

• When BLS took total federal responsibility for the program, existing funds were spread over all states.

History of OES

• Began in 1971 – 50,000 surveys in US

• Originally involved ten cooperating states before being extended to 15 and then all states

History of OES

In 1996, the following changes were made.

• Sample was increased to be the largest of any employer survey.

• Wage rates were added for all states and substate areas.

• All industries were surveyed each year rather than every third year.

OES Staffing Estimates

• Data developed with most current 3 years of data

• Surveys conducted twice annually

• Employment by occupation tallied for each detailed industry

• Staffing ratios developed representing each occupation’s share of industry employment

OES Wage Rate Estimates

• Data tallied by wage ranges

• Wage-rate averages generated by weighted interpolations

• Prior data aged (brought up to date) by other BLS wage survey trends (ECI)

State & Area Occupational Projections

• ETA funded but tied to OES

• Composed of adjusted OES staffing ratios applied to industry employment projections

• Short-term projections — 2 years out

• Long-term projections: 10 years out

• Technical assistance available at the following site: dev.projectionscentral.com

Estimate Delivery System

• Originally developed by Occupational Projections Consortium – not part of BLS

• Software produces occupational and wage estimates for substate areas

• Designed to be used in conjunction with MicroMatrix system

• Output files are database ready

The fourth BLS program is …

The LAUS ProgramWhich stands for Local Area Unemployment

Statistics

History of LAUS

• Concepts developed in the 1930s

• Monthly Report of Unemployment in 1940 – Changed to Current

Population Survey in 1948

• 1950—Handbook method introduced

• 1972—BLS took responsibility for program

• 1973—Large-state direct-use monthly estimates and handbook

trends forced to CPS averages

• 1989—Model-based estimates for all nondirect-use states

• 1996—Model-based estimates for all states

Advantages of Model-Based Estimates

• Less erratic trend than direct CPS monthly state

estimates

• Cheaper than direct CPS estimates

• Predicts annual averages more accurately than

handbook-trended estimates

Note: U.S. data comes directly from the CPS, not from a model.

Substate LAUS Estimates

• Handbook method - used to allocate labor market areas (LMAs) from state estimates

• Population-claims method used where possible for estimates of LMA parts

• Census-share method used for parts of LMAs when claims are not available

• No statistical measures of precision

Lastly, we come to …

The Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)

Program

Mass Layoff Statistics

• Began life as PMLPC in 1984 under JTPA

• Renamed Mass Layoff Statistics in 1989

• Intent: To track serious layoffs and closings by industry• Not very useful for Rapid Response

• Good post-occurrence analytical tool

• Many states don’t have enough activity to publish data

Background Material for All BLS Statistical Programs

BLS Handbook of MethodsDownload:

www.bls.gov/opub/hom

Cheat Sheet

BLS Program

Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages

CES -- Current Employment

Survey

LAUS -- Local Area Unemployment Statistics

MLS -- Mass Layoff Statistics

OES -- Occupational Employment Statistics

Other titles Wage Record Monthly EmploymentUnemployment RateLabor Force Data Mass Layoffs Wages by Job Title

Frequency Quarterly Monthly Monthly Monthly Previously once a year. Data now gathered in May and November

Sample No, universe of all businesses that are required to report

Yes, firms in sample are based on the QCEW universe.

No, Composite model which uses as one of the inputs responses from the Current Population Survey, a household survey that measures the national unemployment rate.

No, universe of all businesses that have a qualifying event.

Yes, firms in sample are based on the ES-202 universe.

Measures Quarterly report of all employment and firms (Industry and Employment)

Indicator of rapid changes in employment available on a monthly basis (Industry, Employment and Manufacturing Production Workers wages). Is used for industrial projections.

Consistent measure of available, able and actively seeking work for all counties (Unemployment Rate)

Shows the demographic characteristics of those involved in a mass layoff. Definition of mass layoff event varies by state.

Occupational data by Industry, geographic area as well as wage data. Is a component for projections.

Time Lag Not available until 5 months after the end of the quarter

Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Approximately one year, should be shorter with new reporting method.

Updates? Of the data, rarely Preliminary data, then revised. Benchmarked at the end of the year

Benchmarked at the end of the year

Of the data, rarely Uses the ECI (Employment Cost Index) to bring data up-to-date

GeographySubject to rules of confidentiality. May include county, metropolitan areas and state

Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state

County, metropolitan areas and state. In addition, the different counties in an area can be added together to create Labor Market Areas.

Subject to rules of confidentiality. In some states, county, metropolitan areas and state data are available.

Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state are available. In addition, each state may produce four sub-areas.

Comparison of Bureau of Labor Statistics Programs done in Labor Market Information Shops

System Operation

Who are our partners in the system and how do we communicate with each other? What resources are available?

System Resources

Workforce Information Council

• Works together to plan, guide and oversee the nationwide information system

• Federal Co-chair: Jack Galvin• State Co-chair: Graham Slater• Members elected to represent regions

across the country

WIC Members

• Roger Therrien, Connecticut

• Peter Neenan, New York

• Deep Gupta, Pennsylvania

• Rebecca Rust, Florida• Keith Ewald, Ohio

• Mark Hughes, Texas• Bill Niblack, Missouri• Tom Gallagher,

Wyoming• Naomi Harada, Hawaii• Graham Slater,

Oregon

Policy Councils

• Specialized groups to support the nationwide workforce information system

• Centered around the following BLS programs: OES, QCEW, CES and LAUS/MLS

• Mixture of federal and state staff to look at issues and make recommendations

NASWA LMI Committee

• Specialized committee under the umbrella of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies

• Representatives from NASWA states appointed by the individual states• Headed by Commissioner Teresa Voors of the Indiana Department of

Workforce Development• Assisted by Don Wehbey, NASWA LMI staff person• Holds annual NASWA LMI Conference with awards for outstanding system

products and the Chavrid Award

Conferences and Training

• LMI Forum• NASWA LMI

Conference• BLS LMI Directors’

Meeting• Other Conferences• LMI Training

Institute

LMI Training Institute

• Basic Analyst Class• Applied Analyst

Class• GIS Class• LMI for Front-line

Staff• Other Classes as

Requested• Certification Process• Best Practices

• LMI Forum• LMI Institute Website

www.LMIontheWeb.org

• Benefield Award• New Business Plan• ETA Funds for

Training

Basic Analyst Class

• December 3 – 5, 2008• Location: Orlando, Florida• Information on the

www.LMIontheWeb.org website

Analyst Resource Center

• Resource for Workforce Information Database administrators

• National Crosswalk Center• Information on Employer Database• National Conference in St. Louis in late October• www.Almisdb.org

Projections Managing Partnership

• www.projectionscentral.com: displays projected data for all states

• www.dev.projectionscentral.com: technical assistance for producing projections

Employment Dynamics

• Employment Dynamics from BLS: Job gains and losses by area from QCEW

• www.bls.gov/bdm• Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics from Census: Uses UI

and Census data to measure detailed workforce activity by area• LEHD/LED also produces Quarterly Workforce Indicators• www.lehd.did.census.gov

WIN/WIN Project

• Workforce Information Innovators Network• Goal – “Advance the application and

integration of data, analysis and research to decision making in regional development by establishing and supporting an active national practitioner network”

• John Dorrer, Chair

Supply and Demand

• Occupational Supply and Demand System – Georgia State University

• www.occsupplydemand.org

Other Partners

• Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)• National Governors’ Association• International Association of Workforce Professionals• National Association of Workforce Development

Professionals

ANY QUESTIONS?