the marketing performance of illinois corn and soybean producers by lewis a. hagedorn, scott h....

The Marketing Performance of Illinois Corn and

Soybean Producers by

Lewis A. Hagedorn, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good

Suggested citation format:

Hagedorn, L. A., S. H. Irwin, and D. L. Good. 2004. “The Marketing Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Producers.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services:

How Much Diversification is Enough?

by

Silvina M. Cabrini, Brian G. Stark, Scott H. Irwin,

Darrel L. Good, and Joao Martines-Filho

Suggested citation format:

Cabrini S. M., B. G. Stark, S. H. Irwin, D. L. Good, and J. Martines-Filho. 2004. “Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification is Enough?” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Options-Based Forecasts of Futures Prices in the

Presence of Limit Moves by

Thorsten M. Egelkraut and Philip Garcia

Suggested citation format:

Egelkraut, T. M., and P. Garcia. 2004. “Options-Based Forecasts of Futures Prices in the Presence of Limit Moves.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts

Smoothed? by

Olga Isengildina, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good

Suggested citation format:

Isengildina, O., S. H. Irwin, and D. L. Good. 2004. “Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?” Proceedings of the 2004 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Hedging-Effectiveness of Milk Futures Using

Value-At-Risk Procedures

by

Ibrahim Bamba and Leigh Maynard

Suggested citation format:

Bamba, I., and L. Maynard. 2004. “Hedging-Effectiveness of Milk Futures Using Value-At-Risk Procedures.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Cash Marketing Styles and Performance Persistence of

Wheat Producers

by

Lewis T. Cunningham III, B. Wade Brorsen,

and Kim B. Anderson

Suggested citation format:

Cunningham, L. T. III, B. W. Brorsen, and K. B. Anderson. 2004. “Cash Marketing Styles and Performance Persistence of Wheat Producers.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Index and

Geographical Basis Risk: Hedging Dairy Profit Risk

by

Gang Chen and Matthew C. Roberts

Suggested citation format:

Chen, G., and M. C. Roberts. 2004. “Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Index and Geographical Basis Risk: Hedging Dairy Profit Risk.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Perceptions of Futures Market Liquidity:

An Empirical Study of CBOT & CME Traders

by

Julia W. Marsh, Joost M.E. Pennings, and Philip Garcia

Suggested citation format:

Marsh J. W., J. M. E. Pennings, and P. Garcia. 2004. “Perceptions of Futures Market Liquidity: An Empirical Study of CBOT & CME Traders.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Accuracy of Grid Pricing: An Evaluation Using

Wholesale Values of Fed Cattleby

Joseph T. Kovanda, Ted C. Schroeder,

and Tommy L. Wheeler

Suggested citation format:Kovanda, J. T., T. C. Schroeder, and T. L. Wheeler. 2004. “Accuracy of Grid Pricing: An Evaluation Using Wholesale Values of Fed Cattle.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Markets: Cash and

Futures Relationships in Brazilian Agricultural

Futures Markets

by

Fabio Mattos and Philip Garcia

Suggested citation format:

Mattos, F., and P. Garcia. 2004. “Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Markets: Cash and Futures Relationships in Brazilian Agricultural Futures Markets.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Transaction Frequency, Inventories and Hedging in

Commodity Processing

byRoger A. Dahlgran

Suggested citation format:

Dahlgran, R. A. 2004. “Transaction Frequency, Inventories and Hedging in Commodity Processing.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average

U.S. Corn Price

by

Linwood Hoffman

Suggested citation format:

Hoffman L. 2004. “Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average U.S. Corn Price.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

The Performance of Weather Derivatives in Managing

Risks of Specialty Crops

by

Trevor A. Fleege, Timothy J. Richards, Mark R. Manfredo,

and Dwight R. Sanders

Suggested citation format:

Fleege,T. A., T. J. Richards, M. R. Manfredo, and D. R. Sanders. 2004. “The Performance of Weather Derivatives in Managing Risks of Specialty Crops.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Evaluating Forecasts of Discrete Variables:

Predicting Cattle Quality Grades

byBailey Norwood, Jayson Lusk, and Wade Brorsen

Suggested citation format:

Norwood B., J. Lusk, and W. Brorsen. 2004. “Evaluating Forecasts of Discrete Variables: Predicting Cattle Quality Grades.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Re-Considering the Necessary Condition for Futures

Market Efficiency: An Application to Dairy Futures by

Dwight R. Sanders and Mark R. Manfredo

Suggested citation format:

Sanders, D. R., and M. R. Manfredo. 2004. “Re-Considering the Necessary Condition for Futures Market Efficiency: An Application to Dairy Futures.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests

by

Dabin Wang and William G. Tomek

Suggested citation format:

Wang, D., and W. G. Tomek. 2004. “Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Optimal Hedging with Views: A Bayesian Approach

by

Wei Shi and Scott H. Irwin

Suggested citation format:

Shi, W., and S.H. Irwin. 2004. “Optimal Hedging with Views: A Bayesian Approach.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

What Is “the Basis”, How Is It Measured, and Why

Does It Matter?

by

Paul Peterson, Jack Cook, and Charles Piszczor

Suggested citation format:

Peterson, P., J. Cook, and C. Piszczor. 2004. “What Is ‘The Basis’, How Is It Measured, and Why Does It Matter?” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Contract Market Viability

by

Gordon C. Rausser and Henry L. Bryant

Suggested citation format:

Rausser G. C., and H. L. Bryant. 2004. “Contract Market Viability.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Incorporating Current Information into Historical-

Average-Based Forecasts to Improve Crop Price Basis

Forecasts

by

Mykel Taylor, Kevin C. Dhuyvetter, and Terry L. Kastens

Suggested citation format:

Taylor, M., K. C. Dhuyvetter, and T. L. Kastens. 2004. “Incorporating Current Information into Historical-Average-Based Forecasts to Improve Crop Price Basis Forecasts.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Captive Supply Trends and Impacts since the Advent of

Mandatory Price Reporting

by

Clement E. Ward and Jonathan T. Hornung

Suggested citation format:

Ward, C. E., and J. T. Hornung. 2004. “Captive Supply Trends and Impacts since the Advent of Mandatory Price Reporting.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Performance of Selected Pre-harvest and Post-harvest

Corn and Soybean Marketing Strategies vs. Alternative

Market Benchmarks

by

E. Neal Blue, Robert N. Wisner, and E. Dean Baldwin

Suggested citation format:

Blue, E. N., R. N. Wisner, and E. D. Baldwin. 2004. “Performance of Selected Pre-harvest and Post-harvest Corn and Soybean Marketing Strategies vs. Alternative Market Benchmarks.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US

Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test

by

Cheol-Ho Park and Scott H. Irwin

Suggested citation format:

Park, C.-H., and S. H. Irwin. 2004. “The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model

by

Jeffrey H. Dorfman and Dwight R. Sanders

Suggested citation format:

Dorfman, J. H., and D. R. Sanders. 2004. “Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].