the president's fy 2017 budget in charts
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CRFB.org
CRFB.org1
CBO’s January Baseline Sets the Stage
CRFB.org
Trillion-Dollar Deficits Are Returning
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Billions
DeficitsIncreased
Almost 800%
DeficitsFell 69%
DeficitsTriple to
Nearly $1.4 Trillion
Sources: CBO, CRFB Calculations2
CRFB.org3
The National Debt is Rising
Sources: CBO, CRFB Calculations
Percent of GDP
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
August 2015 Baseline
January 2016 Baseline
Alternative Budget Outlook
Actual Projected
CRFB.org4
The Gap Between Revenue and Spending is Growing
Percent of GDP
Sources: CBO, CRFB Calculations
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
50 Year Avg.Revenue = 17.4%
50 Year Avg.Spending = 20.2%
Actual Projected
Spending
Revenue
CRFB.orgSources: CBO January 2016 Baseline, CRFB Calculations. Numbers may not add due to rounding
These 3 areas account for 83% of the $2.7 trillion in nominal growth from 2015 to 2026
Social Security, 27%
Health Care, 33%
Interest, 22%
Discretionary, 10%
Other Mandatory,
8%
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Social Security, Health, and Interest Explain the Growth
CRFB.org6
The President’s FY 2017 Budget
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60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
OMB Baseline
FY2016 Budget
FY2017 Budget
The President’s Budget Stabilizes the Debt
7
Sources: OMB, CRFB Calculations
Percent of GDPProjectedActual
CRFB.org
….But at Record-High Levels
Sources: OMB, CBO, CRFB calculations
Percent of GDP
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Actual Projected
President’s Budget
OMB Baseline
50-Year Historical Average
8
CRFB.org9
Budget Projections in the President’s Budget
^ Ten-year figures refer to 2017-2026 for all categories except FY 2016 Budget, which is 2016-2025.* CRFB’s “PAYGO Baseline” adjusts OMB’s baseline to remove claimed savings from a drawdown of Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) and to treat the so-called “sequester” under CBO’s conventions by assuming discretionary levels continue at sequester-levels, adjusted for inflation, beyond 2021.
CRFB.org
Tax Increases, $3,155B
New Tax Breaks, $410B
Health Care Savings, $445B
New Infrastructure Spending, $310B
Other Spending,
$85B
Other Spending, $485B
Immigration, $170B
Sequester Relief, $525B
Interest, $350B
Deficit Reduction, $2,475B
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Savings How It's Spent
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Where Does the Money Come From? Where Does It Go?
Sources: Office of Management and Budget, CRFB CalculationsMeasured against a PAYGO baseline which assumes continuation of current law, including inflation adjustments of the 2021 post-sequester discretionary levels, along with a drawdown in war spending as in the President’s budget.
Billions of Dollars
CRFB.org11
New Spending and Sequester Relief in the President’s Budget
Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion and estimated roughly by CRFB staff. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Costs
New Spending Initiatives $1,250 billion
Provide Mandatory and Discretionary Sequester Relief $525 billion ($125b from OMB baseline)
Increase Transportation and Clean Energy Infrastructure $310 billion
Expand Access to Child Care $80 billion
Offer Universal Pre-K and Expand Home Visiting $75 billion
Expand College Grants $60 billion
Increase Clean Energy R&D Spending (Mission Innovation) $30 billion
Reform Unemployment Insurance Benefits and Establish Wage Insurance $60 billion
Other Spending Increases (net of certain savings) $105 billion
CRFB.org12
Mandatory and Health Savings in the President’s Budget
Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion and estimated roughly by CRFB staff. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Savings
Other Mandatory Savings -$85 billion
Reduce Farm Subsidies -$20 billionIncrease PBGC premiums -$15 billionEnact Postal Reform -$40 billionReduce Social Security and SSI costs -$10 billion
Health Care Savings (net) -$380 billion
Reduce Spending on Prescription Drugs -$170 billionReduce Spending on Post-Acute Care -$95 billionIncrease Income-Based Premiums and Expand Cost-Sharing -$55 billionReduce Medicare Advantage Payments -$75 billionReduce Other Medicaid Costs -$30 billionOther Savings & Interactions -$15 billionMedicaid and CHIP Spending $70 billion
CRFB.org
2016-2026 Annual Growth Rates by Spending Category
Sources: OMB, CRFB CalculationsNote: Other Spending is non-interest
6.6%
5.6% 5.8%
2.7%
5.7% 5.6% 5.8%
2.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Medicare Medicaid Social Security Other Spending
Adjusted Baseline President's Budget
CRFB.org14
Revenue Provisions in the President's Budget
Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion and estimated roughly by CRFB staff. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Savings/CostsRevenue Increases -$3,155 billionLimit Value of Tax Preferences for High Earners, Enact “Buffett rule” -$685 billion Tax Capital Gains and Dividends at Top Rate of 28 percent and Repeal Step-Up Basis -$235 billion Rationalize Net Investment Income and SECA Taxes -$270 billion Restore Estate Tax to 2009 Levels and Close Loopholes -$225 billionImpose a Financial Fee -$110 billion Increase Tobacco Tax -$115 billion Repeal or Reform Various Corporate Tax Expenditures and Loopholes -$225 billion Reform the International Tax System, including with a minimum tax -$485 billion Enact One-Time “Deemed Repatriation” Tax on Income Held Overseas -$300 billionEnact $10-per-barrel Oil Tax -$320 billionOther Revenue -$180 billion
New Tax Breaks $410 billionExpand the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) $65 billionProvide Second Earner Tax Credit $85 billionExpand Tax Breaks for Child Care, Education, and Other Purposes $90 billionExpand Business Tax Breaks, especially for Research, Energy, and Infrastructure $160 billion
CRFB.org
• Abides by PAYGO by paying for all new initiatives
• Stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio
• Calls for business tax reform and Medicare reform
• Emphasizes pro-growth investments and includes policies to promote labor force participation
15
What We Like in the President’s Budget
CRFB.org16
Our Concerns with the President’s Budget
• Leaves debt levels at post-WWII record high levels
• Fails to put debt on a clear downward path relative to GDP
• Includes practically no reforms to Social Security, and insufficient health care savings
• Puts too little focus on long-term fiscal sustainability
CRFB.org
For More Information, Contact Us at info@crfb.org
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