the world bank: regime-type and emergency aid by: ashwin puri and zackary abu-akeel
Post on 03-Jan-2016
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The World Bank and Humanitarian Aid•“End extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity”• Official World Bank goals
•Help states in need• Reconstruction emphasis
•$20 Million to Yemen after 1996 flooding
•$62 Million to the Philippines after 2013 Typhoon Haiyan
Devastation after Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippineshttp://climatedesk.org/2013/11/natural-disasters-cost-3-8-trillion-since-1980-world-bank-says/
Hypothesis
Democracies (regime-type) receive foreign aid from the World Bank more frequently than autocracies.
•Introduction of a second dependent variable:Amount of aid included in programs
Hypothesis
Democracies (regime-type) receive foreign aid from the World Bank more frequently and in higher
amounts than autocracies.
Variables
X: Regime-Type of Country
Y1: Frequency of response to
emergency crises
Y2: Size of aid grants given in response
Literature Review• Flores and Smith (2012)
• Disasters have the most destabilizing effect on autocracies
• Boussalis (2011)• Autocracies respond less effectively to
disasters
• Becerra, Cavallo, and Noy (2012)• Regime type does not affect allocation of
foreign humanitarian aid in the UN
• What about in the World Bank?
Regime-Type DataPrzeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) Democracy and Development
Regime-Type is measured by a countries adherence to 3 rules:
• Rule 1: The chief executive must be elected• Rule 2: The legislature must be elected• Rule 3: There must be more than one party
Emergency Crisis DataEM-DAT: The International Disaster Database•Contains all disasters, separated by country affected, from 1900-2014
•“Disaster” defined by one or more of the following:• 10 or more people reported killed.• 100 or more people reported affected.• Declaration of a state of emergency.• Call for international assistance.
•Allows limiting data to country-years of disaster
World Bank Disbursement Data AidData Database•Grants provided by the World Bank categorized for emergency aid or disaster relief purposes• 597 programs offered from 1946 to 2008
•Merged with the EM-DAT database to show which country-years of disaster the World Bank responded to with a program
MethodologyINDEPENDENT VARIABLE
Regime TypeDichotomous indicator. Coded for whether a country is a democracy or autocracy
DEPENDENT VARIABLES
Frequency of ResponseDichotomous indicator. Coded for whether a country received a program or did not.
Unit of Country-Years
Amount of Aid Constant 2011 USD
Case Studies: Egypt and Albania•Notably high amount of disasters from 2000 to 2006• Not one World Bank program
•Low amount of disasters from 1999 to 2008• Multiple World Bank programs starting in 2003
•Effect of European Union’s 2003 statement identifying Albania as a potential candidate to join the Union?
Preliminary Results
Autocracy Democracyn=2255 n=2155
St. Dev. 0.3107068 St. Dev. 0.3263351
0.1
0.105
0.11
0.115
0.12
0.125
0.108204
0.1211137
Graph 1: World Bank Response By Regime
Regime Type
Mea
n Re
spon
se
Autocracy Democracyn=244 n=261
St. Dev. 388000000 St. Dev. 426000000
0.00E+00
5.00E+07
1.00E+08
1.50E+08
2.00E+08
2.50E+08
3.00E+08
1.88E+08
2.53E+08
Graph 2: World Bank Relief Aid Amount By Regime
Regime Type
Mea
n Ai
d Am
ount
(201
1 US
D)
Suggests democracies receive programs more often and with larger values
Conclusions
There is a statistically significant relationship between the frequency of disaster-relief aid from the World Bank and regime-type.
The World Bank gives more disaster-relief programs to democracies than autocracies.
Implications•Citizens of autocracies receive less help
•Democracies are better able to handle disasters (Smith)o Using aid dollars more effectively
•Control of the World Bank lends itself to a democratic bloco Leadership, decision-making
•Does the World Bank advocate for democracy?
•Further research required:o Similar organizations
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