towards disaster resilience in pakistan a paradigm shift that will improve the quality of life in...

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

IN PAKISTAN A Paradigm Shift

That Will Improve the Quality of Life in Pakistan

Part 2A: Floods

Walter Hays, Global Alliance Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Vienna, Virginia, USA 

GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS THAT CAN CAUSE DISASTERS

• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• LANDSLIDES• WILDFIRES

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient.   

FLOODING IS COUNTER PRODUCTIVE

• Flooding occurs somewhere in the world approximately 10,000 times every year as the consequence of a locale having more water than the regional drainage basin can accomadate.

Disaster resilience, a measure of the capacity of a country to

rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a

disaster, requires decision-making for a

national paradigm shift from the status quo.

WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE

STATUS QUO

Will result in new and more complex HEALTH PROBLEMS

WILL result in unnecessary DEATHS AND INJURIES

WILL result in longer and more costly RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS

PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

• EARTHQUAKES

• DROUGHTS

• LANDSLIDES

• FLOODS

• EARTHQUAKES

• DROUGHTS

• LANDSLIDES

WATER IS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE

• Life in Pakistan depends upon clean and abundant water.

• Economic growth in Pakistan relies on water.

• Quality of life in Pakistan revolves around water.

FLOODS (TOO MUCH WATER)

• Floods in Pakistan occur mainly as the result of extreme levels of precipitation during monsoon season, MORE THAT THE REGIONAL DRAINAGE SYSTEM CAN ACCOMADATE..

Pakistan’s Notable Floods

1973,,1976, 1977, 1978, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1898,

2010, ….

FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN

• Some of Pakistan’s past notable flood disasters have affected as many as 20 million people and killed over 10,000 people.

FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN

• Aug. 1973—affected 4.8 million• Aug. 1976—affected 5.5 million• June 1977—affected 1 million; killed 10,354• July 1978—affected 2.2 million• Aug. 1992—affected 6.1 million• Sept. 1992—affected 12.3 million; killed 1.3 million• July 1995—affected 1.3 million• Aug.1996—affected 2.2 million• Mar. 1998—killed 1,000• Jul./Aug. 2010—affected 20 million; killed thousands

NORTHWEST PAKISTAN HIT BY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING

AFTER PROLONGED MONSOON RAINS

JULY 28-AUGUST 23, 2010[NOTE: War and Ramadan (which began on Aug 12)

were major hinderances]

ONE-FIFTH OF PAKISTAN AFFECTED

Summer floods are common as a result of monsoon rains that swell

rivers and streams across Pakistan, but 2010’s floods, which began in

May and continued through August were the worst in 80 years

Rainfall records were set in the province of KhyberPakhtunkhwa,

parts of the Pakistan-administered Kashmir region, and the eastern

province of Punjab.

RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF HORIFIC PROBLEMS

• The Pakistan government, the military, and the people were very responsive in a variety of catastrophic and dynamic situation threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions. 

Over 1,600 Pakistanis died (and probably many more) and more than 20,000,000 were impacted, including 3,500,000 children, as

rains swelled rivers, inundated villages, and triggered landslides, causing entire villages,

roads, and bridges to be swept away and leaving some areas isolated.

In Afghanistan, NATO and Afghan troops flew dramatic helicopter rescue missions in

militant-held territory, displaying "acts of heroism that were awe inspiring," according to a spokesman for the Combined Air Power

Transition Force.

The survival of some of the poorest of the poor living in the districts of Nowshera, Charsadda, Peshawar,

Swat, and Lower Dir became problematic very early because of

the prolonged, catastrophic nature of the monsoon rains and flooding.

The United Nations announced Saturday, July 31, that they would

provide $10 million dollars for immediate emergency assistance

and would appeal for 460 million for an emergency effort to provide

food, medicine, water, and shelter, especially for 3.5 million children.

Survival for thousands was a race with time as evacuation, search and rescue, mass care (food, clean water, and short- and long-term

health care to prevent disease) were severely hindered by the widespread inundation and

loss of infrastructure.

International response to the appeal of the United Nations for $460 million was unusually

slow due, in part, to global economic problems.

The USA provided $60 million for immediate emergency assistance along with Navy and

Marine helicopters, rescue boats, water filtration units, prefabricated steel bridges and

thousands of packaged meals, which Pakistani soldiers tossed from helicopters

On August 12th, Pakistan’s President Zardari made his first trip to Sukkur to view the flood impacts and to assure angry citizens concerned that they had been abandoned, that the Government was working very hard to obtain international relief.

By August 12th, rain-swollen rivers were receding, but the disaster was

still growing because many of Pakistan’s poorest of the poor families had not only lost their

homes, but also the ability to feed themselves, and were now threatened with disease..

DERA ISMAIL KHAN: INUNDATED

FLOOD SWOLLEN RIVER: MINGORA, SWAT

MUZAFFARABAD: RISING FLOOD WATERS

THOUSANDS OF MUD BRICK HOMES COLLAPSED

NOWSHERA: DAMAGED MUD HOUSE

TRYING TO DIVERT WATER

LOSS OF INFRASTRUCTURE HINDERED EMERGENCY RESPONSE

OVER 3.5 MILLION CHILDREN IMPACTED

COLLAPSED HOUSE

THESE LIVESTOCK WERE SAVED, BUT THOUSANDS DROWNED

PESHAWAR: MELONS BECAME PRECIOUS

CLINGING TO DEBRIS

NOWSHERA: SEEKING HIGHER GROUND

SEEKING HIGHER GROUND

SEEKING A SAFE HAVEN

THIS EVACUATION FROM CHARSADDA WAS DIFFICULT

EVACUATION WAS DIFFICULT EVERYWHERE

NOWSHERA: EVACUATION

NOWSHERA: EVACUATION TO A SAFE HAVEN

EVACUATE WITH WHAT CAN BE CARRIED

MUZAFFARABAD: INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER

INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER

BETTER, BUT INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER?

30,000 Pakistani troops rescued 28,000 people using helicopters and other means, and distributed water

and food.

NOWSHERA: PAKISTANI ARMY DISTRIBUTING WATER

WAITING FOR FOOD

FOOD LINE IN PUNJAB PROVINCE: AUGUST 20

A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER

RESILIENCE

A THREE STEP PROCESS

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN

• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge

• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity

• Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience

Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of

Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is

everything we know or think we know about India’s earthquakes

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And Change

And Change

FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS

• The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the amount and suddenness of the inundation, and 5) the capacity of the regional drainage basin to transport the water.

TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS

• The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by two other factors that tend to happen gradually over time:

• 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and infrastructure, and

• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the kinds of socioeconomic losses that occur in a flood disaster.

FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS

• The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the magnitude and shallow depth of the quake, and 5) the poor soils and mountainous terrain of the region.

TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS

• The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by two other factors that happened gradually over time:

• 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and lifeline systems, and

• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the deaths, injuries, and socioeconomic losses in a disaster.

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES

FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES

Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative

Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical

Capacity in Pakistan to Minimize Likely Impacts in the

Next Flood Disaster

NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a Nation’s “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” its

educational institutions at all levels, and its electronic and

print media that provide public information

GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

Are “TOOLS” to facilitate Pakistan’s continuing commitment

to minimize the likely impacts of the inevitable future floods, thereby preventing another

disaster

Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Science-based Decision-making for a

Paradigm Shift from the status quo to Disaster Resilience in

Pakistan

NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a Nation’s “decision-makers,”

(i.e., its political leaders, stakeholders, and leading

professionals)

who have a basis for deciding on the nature and scope of a

national paradigm shift

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDSLIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

INCREASED DEMANDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY

INCREASED DEMANDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYON COMMUNITY

A DISASTER:A DISASTER:

INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDSLIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE:NEXT EARTHQUAKE:

CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

PAKISTAN’S PAKISTAN’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESPAKISTAN’S PAKISTAN’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•NATURAL HAZARDS MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

POLICIES TO MINIMIZE POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTSIMPACTS

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION/PREVENTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS