trading fundamentals: top down approach
Post on 19-Feb-2017
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The Small Print – Disclaimer
Step 1: Understanding the Environment
What are the current economic conditions?
What is driving prices?
Which theme of interest is currently acting as the catalyst that is moving the markets?
i. the beginning and pace of the tightening cycle in the US.
ii. the expansion of ECB's balance sheet and reflation of Euro area.
iii. the Bank of Japan's QE.
iv. Chinese Economic Status
v. Greek –EU tensions / Elections
vi. Oil Prices
vii. Russian - Ukraine Crisis
viii. Middle Eastern Tensions
ix. UK’s Brexit?
x. Iran Agreement
xi. Emerging Markets Turmoil
xii. US Elections
The major Global Macro themes of interest are:
Interest ratesInterest rates are one of the most important drivers of
the forex markets. The base interest rate of a country is set by its respective central bank. It is used by a central bank as a tool to manage the economy – either by raising the interest rate to curb inflation, or lowering the interest rate to promote growth.
• Inflation
Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services rise in a given period of time. An increase in the inflation rate means that prices are going up more quickly. If the inflation rate falls, the prices of goods and services still rise, but at a slower rate.
The Most Important Economic Indicators
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