trends in the global steel market
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OECD Steel
Committee
Presentation for the
Council Working Party on Shipbuilding
9 July 2009
Crude steel production worldwide
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200
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1,000
1,200
1,400
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
million tons
Source: WSA
CAGR 0.7 %
CAGR 8.4 %
Stagnant Years1974-2001
Steel Boom2002-2007
Growth Period1950-1973
CAGR 5.8 %
Main policy responses
in the 1970s• Europe: massive financial intervention at all
levels of government to:– Complete investments in new capacities decided upon before the
slump
– Maintain existing capacities regardless of profitability and despite of indications of further declines in demand;
– Support the labour force in order to avoid social upheavals due to massive lay-offs
• United States: trade policy measures to shield domestic producers:– Export restraint agreements with the EC and Japan
– Trigger Price Mechanism
– Increased use of trade remedy legislation
Outcome
• The much needed capacity cut backs in form of plant closures made little progress
• The situation did not improve but worsened:
– Imbalance between supply and demand increased
– Price levels and profitability deteriorated
– Competition among some countries distorted due to subsidy competition
– Trade frictions
Steel Committee established
in 1978• “To ensure that trade in steel will remain as unrestricted
and free of distortion as possible”
• “Encourage the reduction of barriers to trade”
• “Facilitate needed structural adaptations that will diminish pressures for trade actions and promote rational allocation of productive resources”
• “Avoid encouraging economically unjustified investments”
• “Ensure that measures affecting the steel industry are consistent with general economic policies”
• “Facilitate multilateral cooperation consistent with the need to maintain competition and prevent problems”
The current crisis & steel market
• The global economic crisis has pushed the world steel industry into recession
– Demand for steel has contracted sharply
– Steelmakers have introduced major production cuts
– Trade in steel has declined sharply
– Steel prices and employment are also down substantially
• Steelmaking capacity continues to increase despite the market downturn
Steel use by sector
Source: worldsteel, 2008 Sustainability Report
Steel-using sectors plunge
– Slowdown was occurring already before the financial shock
– The financial shock reduced capital availability
– Causing a contraction in fixed asset investment
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-15
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-5
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5
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20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% Output growth
Construction
Mechanical engineeringAutomotive
Consumer durablesMetal Goods
Global and regional apparent steel demand
– Global steel demand upturn ends in the first half of 2008
– Demand particularly weak in North America, Europe and Japan
– More stability in some emerging economies
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06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 (e)
Millions of metric tonnes(annualized)
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06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 (e)
North America
CIS
Asia
EU
Index (2006Q1=100)
Apparent steel consumption in
China and the United States
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Mmt China
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12Mmt United States
Global and regional crude steel production
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06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 (e)
Millions of metric tonnes(annualized)
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06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 (e)
North America
LatinAmerica
Asia
EU
Index (2006Q1=100)
CIS
– Steel mills have reduced output strongly
– Capacity utilization (1Q 2009): 43% (US), 49% (EU), 55% (Japan)
– Output rises again in some emerging countries
Capacity utilization rate in world steel
industry
Source: worldsteel
Steel trade in selected economies (thousand tons)
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9000
China
Imports
Exports
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3500
United States
Imports
Exports
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3500
European Union 27
Imports
Exports
– Steel trade has plummeted since September 2008
– In 4Q 2008, the volume of world trade in steel (average of exports and imports) declined by 30% (QoQ) / 20% (YoY)
– Trade imbalances have narrowed
Recent policy developments
• Increase in trade measures to support the industry since last September
– Tariff increases (mostly in emerging economies)
– Non-tariff barriers (new licensing and technical requirements, mandatory and quality standards, etc.) in emerging Asia
– Export-facilitating measures
– Trade remedy measures
Outlook for steel
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20
Residential permits, % change
Monthly data mostly ending between December 2008 and April 2009; three-month average over the last year three-month
average, seasonally adjusted.
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators database.
Government infrastructure spending
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Advanced cts. Developing cts (excl. China)
China Total
Mmt
Private
Infrastructure (public)
– The governments of most economies are spending on infrastructure as part of stimulus measures
– Emerging and developing economies spending USD 566 billion on infrastructure
– Advanced countries spending USD 378 billion
Steel use in the global construction sector (million tons)
Indirect impacts of government infrastructure
spending on steel consumption
steel use linked Tons of steel used per USD 1 bn Total spending Potential impact on
to investment of investment (PPP) on infrastructure steel consumption
Advanced countries 348 mmt 44,251 USD 378.1 billion 16.7 mmt
Emerging and developing economies 691 mmt 80,557 USD 565.8 billion 112.8 mmt
- of which China 326 mmt 123,186 USD 464.5 billion 100.9 mmt
- other developing and emerging 365 mmt 58,061 USD 101.3 billion 11.9 mmt
World 1039 mmt 66,867 USD 943.9 billion 129.5 mmt
– Highly uncertain calculations
– The potential indirect impact of public infrastructure spending could be on the order of 130 million metric tons over the next two or more years, the lion’s share of which would occur in China
Production and demand for passenger cars
Production New registrations/sales
– The current global recession has had an unexpectedly large impact on the global car market, which consumes about 13% of the world's finished steel
– New registrations and sales showing some signs of recovery
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Jan/07 May/07 Sep/07 Jan/08 May/08 Sep/08 Jan/09 May/09
Japan
United States
China
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Jan/07 May/07 Sep/07 Jan/08 May/08 Sep/08 Jan/09 May/09
Japan
United States
EU
Mechanical engineering industry
– In OECD countries in first few months of 2009, output fell by:
• 20-25% in Germany and other European countries
• 30-40% in Japan
• 13-20% in the United States
– In emerging economies, the growth rate slowed sharply in the beginning of 2009 in some countries
– As a whole, the mechanical engineering sector output to fall in 2009, followed by slow recovery in 2010, as a result of weak business investment in capital equipment
Overall steel outlook
(Outcome of deliberations of 66th Steel session)
– Consumption of steel to fall by 15% in 2009 (WSA)
– A moderate recovery later this year is possible owing to infrastructure programmes especially in emerging economies
– Consumption to reach 2007 levels only by 2012
– Uncertainties:
• Will demand continue when the stimulus ends?
• Risk of oversupply?
• Trade frictions?
• A need to restructure?
Will demand continue when the stimulus ends?
Structural change in steel-using industries
– Economic growth in China shifting towards household spending and away from investment and exports
– Rise in global steel intensity expected to slow significantly
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investment/GDP (%)
kg/1000 GDP (constant PPP $)
Steel intensity (left)
Investment rate in emerging countries (right)
Risk of oversupply?World steelmaking capacity, crude steel production
and finished steel consumption
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Million tons
Steel-making capacity
Crude steel production
Finished steel consumption
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Capacity Production Consumption
Growth rate %
– With steelmaking capacity having outstripped the growth of steel consumption in recent years, and as steel demand is now contracting due to the global economic downturn, it appears that the global steel industry is facing a situation of overcapacity
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
mmt
NAFTA
Europe
Asia excl. China
China
Growth in world capacity of steel production
Employment and productivity in the steel
industry
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350000
1990 1995 2000 2005
Employment
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1990 1995 2000 2005
Tonnes of crude steel produced per worker
0500000Japan United States
Germany Korea
France Chinese Taipei
Employment declines have
accelerated• North America is experiencing relatively pronounced effects
in steel industry employment
• In Europe, employment has declined more gradually, supported by short-time working
• Turkey: employment relatively stable at end of 2008, but expected to fall by 10% by June 2009.
• In China, employment has fallen by 80,000 to 3.5 million
• Further layoff announcements recently:
– Corus: 2000 jobs to be cut
– ThyssenKrupp: 4,000 jobs to be cut
– Usiminas: 1,326 jobs to be cut
Domestic steel prices by selected regions
– After reaching a historical high in July 2008, the average global price of steel has declined each month since then, and in May 2009 reached a level that is 55% lower than last July’s peak
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Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09
Ind. 2000=100 World average price of steel
Model-based forecast of the real steel price• The model disaggregates world steel supply and demand into ten trading regions:
ASEAN, the EU, China, the CIS, India, Japan, Korea, NAFTA, the Middle East, and South America
• Demand for steel is a function of the real price of steel, economic activity and time
• Supply of steel is function of the real price of steel, capacity, prices of raw materials
• Supply and demand relationships across regions are linked through a market clearing price of steel (determined by setting world supply=demand)
Current activities of the Steel
Committee
• Market trends and scenarios
• Steelmaking raw materials
• Steelmaking capacity
• Subsidies and support measures
• Effects of trade remedy measures on the steel market
Tariff increases– Mainly emerging economies
Egypt Feb. 2009 Import tax of 10% with a minimum value, on top of already applicable 5% import duty. (CR sheets, galvanized sheets and organic coated sheets)
India Nov. 2008 Increase in import duties on a range of iron and steel products from 0 percent to 5%.
Indonesia Feb. 2009 Increase of import tariffs on some steel products.
Russia Feb. 2009 Increase of import tariffs on certain steel and steel products (effective from 14 January2009, for next nine months).
Turkey Jan. 2009 Import tariff increase on a number of products such as: hot rolled flat products; cold rolled flat products; coated flat products.
UAE Feb. 2009 The government has reinstated a 5% customs duty on rebar effective from 15 February 2009.
Vietnam Dec. 2008 Increase import tariffs on semi-finished products, bars and rods.
Non-tariff measures– Mainly developing Asian economies
Argentina Nov. 2008 Introduction of non-automatic import licensing requirements (affecting only a very narrow product group of steel)
India Nov. 2008 Introduction of licensing requirements for imports of certain steel products.
India Feb. 2009 New mandatory product quality certification from the Bureau of Indian Standards for 17 steel imported products. The Government deferred implementation of this regulation by one year on 10 February 2009
Indonesia Jan. 2009 Introduction of mandatory standards for steel products (hot-rolled steel sheets and coils and zinc-alminium alloy coated steel sheets and coils)
Malaysia Nov. 2008 New technical regulations for 57 steel products, requiring certificates of approval for conformity with Malaysian Standards.
Thailand Mar. 2009 Introduction of new requirements for Approval under domestic Product Quality Standards
Export-facilitating measures– The Chinese government abolished/cut export
tax rebate and imposed/increased export tax to help curb strong growth in exports in 2005-2008.
– After the global economic crisis, various export-facilitating measures were introduced.
China Dec. 2008 Elimination of export duties on certain flat steel products (5%) combined with cancellation of steel export licensing requirements.
China Apr. 2009 Imposition of VAT export rebate on certain flat and long steel products (13%)
China Jun. 2009 Imposition of VAT export rebate on HR coil (9%)
India Nov. 2008 Elimination of export duties on steel products (which were imposed in May 2008)
Trade remedy measuresAustralia Dec. 2008 Initiation of AD and CVD duties investigations on imports
of hollow sections from China and Malaysia
China Jun. 2009 Initiation of AD duties investigations on imports of plates from GO silicon steel from Russia and US. (and CVD investigations against US)
EU Nov. 2008 Initiation of AD duties investigations on imports of hollow sections from Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus
India Apr. 2009 Provisional AD duties on imports of stainless CR flat products from 8 economies
India Nov. 2008 Initiation of AD duties investigations on imports of HR flat products from 15 economies
India Apr. 2009 Initiation of safeguard investigation on HR flat products.
Indonesia Nov. 2008 Initiation of AD duties investigations on imports of plates from China, Chinese Taipei and Malaysia
Russia Mar. 2009 Initiation of AD duties investigations on imports of stainless flat products from 5 economies
US Apr. 2009 Initiation of AD and CVD duties investigations on Chinese OCTG.
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