trends people tech apr09

SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING PEOPLE & USE OF TECHNOLOGYKate CarruthersApril 2009

Who Me?

Marketer, technologist, educator, law student and renaissance woman

www.katecarruthers.com

www.siliconfederation.com

“Innovation always comes unexpectedly & from the periphery.”

WEB 2.0 & INNOVATION

A few interesting things about web 2.0:• It is not new technology• It is new ways of using older technology• It is not using the old mindset where

technology was the province of gurus• It is democratizing technology • It is applying new business models

WEB 2.0 & INNOVATION

Let’s think about what is coming next for the web…– What are some of the drivers of innovation?– What are some of the enablers of innovation?– What are some of the important social &

cultural aspects?

Macro Trends

• Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo-awareInternet• New interfaces – gesture, haptic, auditory, human-computer,

voice user interfacesInterfaces• Virtualization , cloud computing enabled by solid state drives,

blade technologyHardware• It’s here and it will continue to growSocial Computing

• Wearable, networks, convergenceUbiquitous Computing

Context & Issues

Political

Economic

SocialEnvironmental

Context & Issues

Political

Economic

SocialEnvironmental

e.g. censorship of internet

e.g. copyright & intellectual

property

e.g. green computing &

climate change

e.g. growth of social

computing & the digital

divide

e.g. global financial crisis

Key Considerations

Technical• Hardware• Software• Infrastructure• Metadata

– Taxonomies– Ontologies– Folksonomies– RDF, FOAF, XML, RSS,

API, etc.

Business• Security & identity

management• Privacy & Censorship • Legal & Copyright• Governance & the

‘Shadow’ IT dept• Resources & Skills• Outsourcing & Support

Speed of Change

The rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example of the telephone. It did not change for almost 100 years & now it changes every 3 months.

Speed of Change

“Skype now the world's largest international voice carrier”

Source: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/24043/127/ 25-Mar-2009

Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and their expectations of technology:

Source: Market Share: Smartphones Worldwide 2008 http://www.smartcompany.com.au/telecommunications/iphone-and-blackberry-take-market-share-from-nokia.html

“iPhone maker Apple increased its market share from 2.7% in 2007 to 8.2% in 2008

Generations

It is interesting to overlay the speed of change against the theory of generations. The idea goes that each age cohort has a particular relationship to technology & change adoption.

Generations?

“ I fundamentally disagree with the idea that mere membership of an age cohort determines a person’s relationship to technology or to change adoption.”

Generations?

“ What will become a determining factor is not membership of an age cohort, rather it is one’s willingness to be connected.”

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/

Generations?

“ The willingness & desire to be hyperconnected via technology will become the new generation gap.”

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/

SOME FORCES FOR CHANGE

Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html

Changes in Consumption

Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html `

Hitwise, Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/social_networks_overtake_adult_websites.html

Social Computing

Source: Brian Solis http://www.flickr.com/photos/briansolis/2735401175/sizes/l

Social Computing

• Change is the only constant

• Ordinary people are co-opting web technology in unplanned, unorganised & unexpected ways

Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/

Source: Christopher S. Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/

Shift from passive consumption to active acquisition of media

Hyperconnectivity

Not 6 degrees of separation

Perhaps only 1 degree?

Source: http://www.popsci.com.au/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/734px-Six_degrees_of_separation.jpg

Hyperconnectivity

Social networking is crashing the degrees of separation between individuals

Source: http://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm 11 Apr 09

Consumption On-Demand

• No more waiting

• What I want

• When I want it

http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/17/bittorrent-is-now-streaming-movies-with-ads-but-wheres-the-good-stuff/

Tribal Brains

• Wired to deal with smaller groups

• Wired for small chunks of information

• Magical number 7

Tribal Creatures

• Tribe size

• Dunbar’s number = 150

• We mesh into subgroups based on common interests

• Increasingly loose ties

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Maasai_tribe.jpg

Chunking

• Growth of knowledge

• Too much knowledge to keep in our heads

• No more epic poetry

Source: http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/spartan/spartan-brad-pitt.jpg

KNOWLEDGE SHARING

• In the distant past we used techniques like epic poetry to share important knowledge

• Then we graduated to books• And then to hypertext• NOW WE HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION!

Challenges today are filtering, ordering & adding meaning to information

Not generational conflict, ratherconnectivity conflict

Boundaries

• Time

• Place

• Content

• Authority

Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Hadrians_wall_Greenhead.jpg

Boundaries

• We are dealing with a radically different set of expectations – from our staff, suppliers & consumers

• Many of these people were socialised in the old non-digital world; while others are digital natives

It’s going to be an interesting balancing act between those different sets of expectations

BOUNDARIES

We are dealing with:• Issues about boundaries in relation to

people, process & technology• Different perspectives on what the

boundaries are • Questions about if the boundaries exist at

Battle is between centralised authority & growing power of individuals/smaller groups

BOUNDARIES

We can expect debates about:• Appropriate times and places of

consumption of new media • Appropriate levels of control over the

content• Who has the authority to decide all of this

“The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” – John Gilmore

Boundaries

• Defining boundaries in a hyperconnected world is a challenge

• But interesting discoveries are made at the boundaries of the currently known world

BOUNDARIES

Some interesting questions:

• What about the role of authority? • Who has it & why? • How do we feel about that? • Is it generational?

The rules are changing

We’re not in control any more. This brings

opportunities!

SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY HEADING OUR WAY

CHARACTERISTICS

• Accessible to ordinary people not just specialists or large companies

• Commoditization driving prices down further

• Ubiquitous & easy to use• Not requiring high levels of specialised

technical knowledge

New Technology

Affordable RFID chips enabling the internet of things

Source: http://www.touchatag.com/

Wearable computing- e.g. shoes that report back on you

Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod Sport Kithttp://www.cs.washington.edu/research/systems/privacy.html

GPS chips that give an accurate location fix from indoors

Source: Engadgethttp://www.engadget.com/2009/02/12/epsons-tiny-gps-receiver-will-make-everything-location-aware/

Keeping the ageing baby boomer population at home longer

Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive heart failure, transmits his clinical vital signs everyday via a "HomMed Health Monitoring System" to a Meridian Home Care office where a registered nurse tracks his health.Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13senior.html?em

New Interfaces

• Gesture interfaces• Acoustic input • Touch screens• Haptic interfaces• Voice UI

Source: http://www.nickhodge.com/blog/archives/2606

New Interfaces

Sahara Touch-iT Tablet i200 Black

Purdue University 2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time perceptualization of the mechanical properties, such as stiffness, adhesion or friction, of a nanoscale object during positioning or manipulation

Source: http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/HIRL/

New Interfaces

Gesture Computer Interface Device Developed For Surgeons 2008http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616101137.htm

Commercially available 2007http://www.gtec.at/products/g.MOBIlab/gMOBIlabPocketPC.htm

New Interfaces

• Clothing that senses our emotions

• This jacket lets you feel the movies

Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8287 IEEE-sponsored 2009 World Haptics Conference 2009

New Interfaces

• GUI → TUI

• Moves from Graphical to Tangible User Interface

Source: http://tacolab.com/projects/Siftables

Hardware

• Hard disk density• Solid state drives• Batteries• Robotics go

mainstream

Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8367

Source: http://www.maniacworld.com/cat-loves-his-roomba.html

Hardware

• Blades• Virtualization• Cloud computing/

Grid computing/ Utility computing

Dell cluster

Amazon Web ServicesGoogle App EngineMicrosoft Azure Rackspace MossoServePath GoGrid

Sample cloud architecturehttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg/400px-CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg.png

THE BIGGEST SHIFT

The Biggest Shift

“… the shift towards the individual as the centre of a network of relationships mediated & enabled by technology …”

Source: Kevin Kelly, http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2007/11/four_stages_in.php

The Biggest Shift

“… it means decentralisation of power from the old authorities to a new model – & we do not yet know what that new model will be.”

Source: MIT's Technology Review: Mapping the Internet., http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/06/22/net_periphery.jpg

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