twentieth century & future trends

Twentieth Century Twentieth Century & &

Future TrendsFuture Trends

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)

N.H. Surface Air TemperatureN.H. Surface Air Temperature

Surface Air TemperatureSurface Air Temperature

Surface Air Surface Air TemperatureTemperature

Trends in TemperatureTrends in Temperature

Seasonal Temperature TrendsSeasonal Temperature Trends

Trends in Diurnal Temperature RangeTrends in Diurnal Temperature Range

• 1950-19931950-1993

• Non-urban stations onlyNon-urban stations only(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)

Diurnal Diurnal Temperature Temperature

Range Range

vs.vs.

Cloud CoverCloud Cover

• cloud cover - solidcloud cover - solid

• DTR (˚C) - dashedDTR (˚C) - dashed

Lower Troposphere TrendsLower Troposphere Trends

Lower Stratosphere TrendsLower Stratosphere Trends

Glacier Glacier RetreatRetreat

N.H. Snow Cover ExtentN.H. Snow Cover Extent

N.H. Sea Ice ExtentN.H. Sea Ice Extent

S.H. Sea Ice ExtentS.H. Sea Ice Extent

Arctic Sea Ice ThicknessArctic Sea Ice Thickness

Precipitation TrendsPrecipitation Trends

Surface Vapor Pressure ChangeSurface Vapor Pressure Change

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)(1975 - 1995)(1975 - 1995)

Changes Changes in in

ExtremesExtremes

Change in PrecipitationChange in Precipitation

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)(“Heavy” = above 90th percentile; periods (“Heavy” = above 90th percentile; periods >> 50 yr.) 50 yr.)

Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.}Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.}

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)(period ~ 1946 - 1999)(period ~ 1946 - 1999)

Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.}Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.}

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)(period ~ 1946 - 1999)(period ~ 1946 - 1999)

Changes in Changes in HurricanesHurricanes

U.S. Landfall U.S. Landfall HurricanesHurricanes

Category 3-5 in Category 3-5 in North AtlanticNorth Atlantic

Changes in TornadoesChanges in Tornadoes

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)Reported F3-F5 Tornadoes in U.S.Reported F3-F5 Tornadoes in U.S.

(Dashed line = based on storm damage reports)(Dashed line = based on storm damage reports)

(IPCC(IPCC

TAR)TAR)

(IPCC(IPCC

TAR)TAR)

(Mann et al. 1998)(Mann et al. 1998)

NH Reconstructed T vs. Candidate ForcingsNH Reconstructed T vs. Candidate Forcings

Dust Veil IndexDust Veil Index

Log(COLog(CO22))

SolarSolar

NH TemperatureNH Temperature

Correlation of Correlation of 200-yr running 200-yr running average NH average NH temperature vs. temperature vs. forcingsforcings

Performance of GCMs - Control ClimatesPerformance of GCMs - Control Climates

Note: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitudeNote: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitude

Performance of Performance of GCMs -GCMs -

Control ClimatesControl Climates

Note: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitudeNote: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitude

(0.5 (0.5 ≥ 50% of 15 models give ice at location) ≥ 50% of 15 models give ice at location)

““Natural Variability” vs. Obs. VariabilityNatural Variability” vs. Obs. Variability

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)GCMs with no forcing changesGCMs with no forcing changes ObservedObserved

(IPCC TAR)(IPCC TAR)Ensemble of GCMs with solar and volcanic forcing changes Ensemble of GCMs with solar and volcanic forcing changes

Global Model T vs. Obs. TGlobal Model T vs. Obs. T

Ensemble of GCMs with GHG, OEnsemble of GCMs with GHG, O33 and aerosol forcing and aerosol forcing changes changes

Ensemble of GCMs with natural and anthropogenic forcing changes Ensemble of GCMs with natural and anthropogenic forcing changes

Global Model T vs. Obs. TGlobal Model T vs. Obs. T

Spatial Distribution of T TrendsSpatial Distribution of T Trends

Ensemble mean of 5 GCMs (R30 resolution)Ensemble mean of 5 GCMs (R30 resolution)

Grey: Observed trends within the “natural variability” of the R30 GCMGrey: Observed trends within the “natural variability” of the R30 GCM

Change in Daily max{T} for June-July-August(RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s)

Pan et al. (2004)

Change in Daily max{T}(RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s)

Pan et al. (2004)

Change in LLJ Frequency [%]

Pan et al. (2004)

RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s

Change in Soil Moisture [mm]

Changes in Precipitation, Evaporation, Sensible Heat Flux

Pan et al. (2004)

RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s

Emission Scenarios: Emission Scenarios: Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

A1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks A1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks ~2050; rapid introduction of new, efficient technologies; ~2050; rapid introduction of new, efficient technologies; substantial reduction of social/econ. differencessubstantial reduction of social/econ. differences

A2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing A2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing population; fragmented introduction of new technologiespopulation; fragmented introduction of new technologies

B1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks B1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks ~2050; transition to service/information-based economy; ~2050; transition to service/information-based economy; clean, resource-efficient technologiesclean, resource-efficient technologies

B2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing B2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing population (lower than A2); fragmented introduction of population (lower than A2); fragmented introduction of new technologies; oriented toward environmental new technologies; oriented toward environmental protection and social equityprotection and social equity

(Also - IS92 scenarios - older)(Also - IS92 scenarios - older)

Global T Global T Change: Change:

A2 & B2A2 & B2

Global Precip. Global Precip. Change: Change:

A2 & B2A2 & B2

Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)

Multi-model ave. Multi-model ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T/SDEV (green)T/SDEV (green)

Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)

Multi-model ave. Multi-model ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T/SDEV (green)T/SDEV (green)

Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)

Multi-model ave. Multi-model ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P/SDEV (green)P/SDEV (green)

Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)

Multi-model ave. Multi-model ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P/SDEV (green)P/SDEV (green)

(IPCC(IPCC

TAR)TAR)

(IPCC(IPCC

TAR)TAR)

Twentieth Century Twentieth Century & &

Future TrendsFuture Trends

ENDEND

twentieth century & future trends

tipcc tarensemble of

tglobal model t

nh reconstructed t

control climatesnote

temperatureipcc tartrends

control climates0

daily max

ipcc tarperiod

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