ufz-center for environmental research leipzig-halle gmbh 1 integrated assessment of biological...

Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions

as a basis for biodiversity policiesFelix Rauschmayer, Department of Economics, Sociology, and Law

• Introduction• Three dimensions of uncertainty:

– scientific– value– societal

• Multi-criteria decision aid• Conclusion

1. Introduction

Measures may be taken on four levels:

1) the import of foreign species, 3) their establishment, and/or 2) their introduction into nature, 4) their invasion

Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer

Societal decisions about policies against biological invasions need assessments that integrate economic, social and ecological aspects.

A biological invasion is the establishment and the non-intended spread of an alien species.

The assessment process may be divided into three steps: 1) Specify the underlying physical effects of invasions and of measures against invasions. 2) Assess the impacts of invasions on the social and economic environment.

3) Evaluate these assessments according to their importance.

1. Introduction

2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts

Knowledge about

probabilities

Knowledge about facts

unproblematic problematic

Ignorance

Ambiguity

Incertitude

unproblematic

problematic

mbH Risk aspects:

(1) there are – at least in moderated or arctic regions – a lot of species for which the probability of establishment is nearly zero, and

Incertitude and ignorance aspects: (1) the probabilities of a single species to establish or invade vary to a

large extent,(2) It has not been possible to make general statistics concerning the

invasion probability dependent on any variables of the biota.(3) We are not in a position to isolate reasonable hypotheses

concerning the real probability of a certain species to get established or to become a pest.

There are some species for which the consequences of invasions come close to a catastrophe. Others are unproblematic.

It is rational not to take drastic measures concerning species with nearly no probability of establishment, and it is also rational to take measures which inhibit catastrophes. In cases of high uncertainty, it is rational to choose the measure with the smallest potential negative effects.

2. b) Value uncertainty

Four moral questions for a decision maker in environmental fields:• Do only humans count? If yes:• Do only existing humans count? If yes:• Do only persons count? If yes:• Do persons always know best what is good for them?

2. b) Value uncertainty

Taking decisions about biological invasions means to take morally complex decisions :(1) where many entities are concerned by a decision, (2) where it is not sure who these entities are, (3) where the decision touches upon many aspects of life, and (4) where irreversible consequences are to be expected.

Any assessment method must be open to different ethical conceptions, to integrate non-persons, and to respect the right of future generations.

Two arguments in favour of participatory decision making: – the functional and – the ethical-normative argument.

Who participates?– Decision processes concerning measures against import or

establishment have to be open to the discourse of a large array of stakeholders.

– The aspects of value uncertainty discussed above call for advocatory participation for non-persons or non-living persons.

2. c) Societal uncertainty

Who shall participate in the decision process?

Identify problem and actors1.

Selection of alternatives3.

Evaluation criteriaeconomic

criteriasocial

criteriaecological

criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2

...Alternative n

Multi-criteria matrix

4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives

Results of mono-criterion evaluations

Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.

Decision recommendation6.

3. Multi-criteria decision aid

Evaluation criteria2.

7. Implementation

There are few and explicit transformation steps, Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the

process are characteristics of this assessment technique, The different uncertainties may be handled separately,

criteriasocial

criteriaecological

...Alternative n

3. Multi-criteria decision aidEvaluation criteria

7. Implementation

range of or fuzzy numbers

process are characteristics of this assessment technique. The different uncertainties may be handled separately, Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce

overall substitutability of the different values,

criteriasocial

criteriaecological

...Alternative n

7. Implementation

Thresholds

overall substitutability of the different values, Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”,

criteriasocial

criteriaecological

...Alternative n

7. Implementation

Different criteria

overall substitutability of the different values, Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”, Non-persons or future persons may be considered explicitly.

criteriasocial

criteriaecological

...Alternative n

7. Implementation

Advocates

Discounting

Advocates

Critical Capital

mbH The main difference between mono-criterion assessments and multi-

criteria decision analysis is less its mono- vs. multi-criteria approach, but the facility of the latter to be embedded in a social decision context. With multi-criteria decision aid, it is more facile to lay open the uncertainties in all three dimensions and to make them an explicit topic for public discourse. Therefore, it seems suitable as an assessment method for biological invasions and as a basis for biodiversity policies in general.

4. Conclusion

ufz-center for environmental research leipzig-halle gmbh 1 integrated assessment of biological...

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