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UNFCCC - Technical workshop on water, climate change impacts and adaptation strategies

Mexico City, Mexico – 19 July 2012

Tools and methods for assessing and reducing water resource vulnerability to climate change 

Bart (A.J.) Wickel and Sergio Salinas

E. Barrios  N. Sindorf, S. Freeman (WWF)

J.H. Matthews (CI)

Structure

Introduction

Scalable vulnerability and resilience tools and methods

National to basin level – Water Reserves

Basin level ‐ HydroBAT

Basin to community level – Flowing forward

Conclusions

Burrowing owl, Brazil

© Bart Wickel

The climate change opportunity

There is common understanding that we are facing a serious set of problems

Water is a key issue in economical and human development and conservation (Food, Water and Energy Security)

The water and conservation science communities hold a wealth of tools, data products and solutions 

There is an opportunity to demonstrate a conservation based approach to development

Chapada dos Veadeiros, Brazil

© Bart Wickel

Models and adaptation

Temperature

Precipitation

A linear change in mean climate?

ORIntensification ofextreme events

ORShifts in seasonality

ORState level shifts

Vulnerability to what change?

Extreme eventsFloodsHurricanesTornadoesDrought

Seasonal shiftsSnow/ice meltDry season durationSpring burstMigration

State level shiftsFire regime shiftPerennial → IntermittentForest → savanna

Climate Change = Water Change

Chapada dos Veadeiros, Brazil

© Bart Wickel

Community based

adaptation

Ecosystem based

adaptation

System based Adaptation

• Water is the integrative element• Water resource vulnerability

• Recognizes the needs of people and ecosystems• Adaptive IRBM – IRBM+

Reconnecting wetlands and floodplain restoration

Preventing maladaptation

and “green”/softer infrastructure

River andwetland conservation

Forest conservation

River andwetland conservation, 

source water protection

Water reserves

Examples: WWF Freshwater adaptation projects

Disaster risk reduction and source water 

protection

WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX

Risk management

Water use > 40% High water stress

Water resources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

40%

60%

Source: European Environment Agency

Mean An

nualRu

noff(M

AR)

Water pressure = 

National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

60%

40%

Natural infrastructure and water management are the great allies

> 60%Mean An

nualRu

noff(M

AR)

National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1-en

e

1-fe

b

1-m

ar

1-ab

r

1-m

ay

1-ju

n

1-ju

l

1-ag

o

1-se

p

1-oc

t

1-no

v

1-di

c

Cau

dal (

m3 /s

)

Climate change vulnerabilities: 

– Extreme events: physical capacity to mange /attend risk foods

– Variability in water availability: with main focus in droughts

• Overallocation

100 % MAR

National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves

Water reserves: – Reduce user water risk– Prevents overallocation– Reduce water resource vulnerability– Secure/increase adaptive capacity of both people and nature

100 % MAR

60 % MAR

National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves

THE MEXICAN PUBLIC POLICY CASE• Water Reserves are considered in National Water Law• It came out the need for a National Standard to

estimate that water reserve. o It was developed based on mexican and international

experience, with the participation of the academy, government agencies, and NGO.

o It recognizes: – A needed balance between water use and ecologicalimportance

– Surface and groundwater integration– Preventive principle for sensible ecosystems– Climate variability

© Jaime Rojo/WWF

The Baseline

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1-en

e

1-fe

b

1-m

ar

1-ab

r

1-m

ay

1-ju

n

1-ju

l

1-ag

o

1-se

p

1-oc

t

1-no

v

1-di

c

Cau

dal (

m3 /s

)

WWF/Conagua/IADB Partnership

1. Built on national water law  which recognizes the environment water‐needs

2. Turns a limiting regulation into a securing regulation

3. Safeguards ecosystem resilience

National to basin level adaptation – Water Reserves

Evaluate

• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution

Visualize

• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data

Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT

Analyze

• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability

Evaluate

• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution

Visualize

• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data

Analyze

• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability

Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT

Evaluate

• Elevation, gradients• Water Resources Distribution• Connectivity• Population distribution

Visualize

• Visualization of My Basin and Analytics data

Analyze

• Aquatic Classification• Ecosystem Services• Connectivity Analyzes• Climate Vulnerability Relative snow pack sensitivity

Decrease in duration of upstream snow season

50 % <40‐50 %30‐40 %20‐30 %

10‐20 %0‐10%No decrease

Basin level Assessments ‐ HydroBAT

Flowing Forward

Characteristics:

Framework approach

Combines climate and development scenarios

Combines participatory approaches with desk studies and scientific analyses

Looks at communities and the environment

Appropriate Scale: 

Landscape/Watershed

Strengths:

Flexible 

Integrated approach

Not restricted to data‐heavy analyses

Integrates outputs form other tools

Phase 1Objectives and Scope

Identify Analysis Targets

Assess Ecological Condition

Assess Exposure

Vulnerability

Phase 2Ecological Vulnerability

Development Scenarios

Climate Scenarios

CombinedPotential Impacts

Rate  Ecological Condition

(Sensitivity & Resilience)

Impact Rating 

(Exposure)

ID Key Factors of Sensitivity & Resilience

Vulnerability Rating

Social Adaptive Capacity

(by Analysis Unit)

Assess CapacityIdentify Key Components

Phase 3Social Adaptive Capacity

Institutional Map

Policy Map

Infrastructure Map

People Overview

Information Overview

Institutions

Policies

Infrastructure

People

Information

Adaptation Options by Target

Landscape Adaptation Strategies

Phase 4Adaptation Strategies

Flowing Forward

Water Reserves of Mexico:www.wwf.org.mx/water‐reserves

The flowing forward report:http://www.flowingforward.org/

The Indrawati VA report:http://niwater.org/2011/08/workshop‐report‐ecosystem‐based‐vulnerability‐assessment‐in‐nepal/

Selected references:• Matthews, J.H., Wickel, A.J., Freeman, S. (2011) Converging streams in climate‐relevant conservation: water, infrastructure, and institutions, PLOS Biology.• Matthews, J.H., Wickel, A.J., Freeman, S. and Thieme, M.L. (2011). The future of African freshwaters. In: The Diversity of Life in African Freshwaters: Under Water, Under Threat, Darwall, W.R.T., Smith, K.G., Allen, D.J., Holland, R.A, Harrison, I.J., and Brooks, E.G.E. editors: 264‐269.• Wickel, A.J., Simonov, E., Matthews, J.H., (2011) Mal‐adaptive responses to climate change: The DaurianSteppe region of Mongolia, China and Russia (submitted).• Matthews, J.H., Aldous, A. and Wickel, A.J. (2009). Managing Water in a Shifting Climate. Journal of the AWWA August 2009: 28‐29/99. • Matthews J.H., Wickel, A.J. (2009) Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation: a natural history approach. Climate and Development 1: 269‐279. doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0018

Resources

bart.wickel@wwfus.org ;   ssalinas@wwfmex.org

Chapada do Veiados, BrazilChapada do Veiados, Brazil

Thanks for your attention

© Bart Wickel© Bart Wickel