u.s. godae: global ocean prediction with community effort: community effort: nrl, fsu, u. of miami,...

U.S. GODAE: Global U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with Ocean Prediction with

Community Effort:Community Effort: NRL, FSU, U. of Miami, NASA-GISS, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/AOML, NOAA/PMEL, PSI, FNMOC, NAVOCEANO, SHOM, LEGI, OPeNDAP, UNC, Rutgers, USF, Fugro-GEOS, Orbimage, Shell, ExxonMobil

GODAE: The visionGODAE: The vision

"A global system of observations, communications, modeling and assimilation,

that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans in a way that will promote and engender wide utility and availability of this resource for

maximum benefit to society."

Objectives and GoalsObjectives and Goals

• A broad partnership of institutions that collaborate in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using HYCOM.

• Transition to operational use by the U.S. Navy at NAVOCEANO and by NOAA at NCEP.

• Strong participation of the coastal ocean modeling community in using and evaluating boundary conditions from the global and basin-scale ocean modeling prediction systems

• Efficient data distribution (100 Terrabytes Storage Area Network)

The data are available to the community at large within 24 hours via Live Access Server (LAS), ftp, and OPeNDAP at http://www.hycom.org

Objectives and GoalsObjectives and Goals

STORAGE AREA NETWORKSTORAGE AREA NETWORK

• Software• Red Hat Linux• Red Hat cluster suite and Global

File System• Apache Web Server • THREDDS• LAS Server• Vsftpd server

100 TB Fibre Channel SAN

Three 8 CPU machines

32 GB RAM/machine

Currently Available DatasetsCurrently Available Datasets

• Daily outputs from the real time Global HYCOM+NCODA analysis

• Global HYCOM+NCODA analysis (2004- present)

• Global non-assimilative HYCOM (2003-2007)

• Near real-time 1/12 Atlantic Ocean prediction system output (June 2003 – Present)

• Monthly mean 1/12 Pacific Ocean simulation output (1978-2003)

1/12º global real time system (NRL)1/12º global real time system (NRL)- 4500 x 3298 grid points, ~6.5 km spacing on average, ~3.5 km at pole - 32 σ2*

vertical coordinate surfaces - Monthly river runoff (986 rivers)- NOGAPS atmospheric forcing- Assimilation: NCODA

1/25º Gulf of Mexico real time system (NRL)1/25º Gulf of Mexico real time system (NRL)- Running since November 2006- Assimilation: NCODA- 5 day hindcast, 7 day forecast

NOAA/NCEP Atlantic real-time systemNOAA/NCEP Atlantic real-time system- - Orthogonal grid (1200 x 1684 points) - 25 vertical coordinates (18 isopycnal, 7 z-level)- Forcing fields from 3-hour NCEP (GDAS/GFS) model - Tides:M2, S2, N2, K1, P1, O1, K2, Q1 tidal modes - Rivers from daily USGS data and RIVDIS climatology - Data Assimilation (SSH, SST,T, S, profiles)

PresentPresentnowcast/forecast systemsnowcast/forecast systems

with assimilation (GLBa0.08-60.4)

without assimilation (GLBa0.08-05.8)

Overall increase in variability - largest changes occur in the western boundary currents

1/121/12ºº Global HYCOM Global HYCOMSSH and surface driftersSSH and surface drifters

Smedstad et al.

Eddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonSurface EKE in the Gulf Stream

3000 cm2/s2

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

NCOM - 2004

Observations fromFratantoni (2001) –Based on 1990-99

surface drifters

HYCOM - 2004

Eddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEddy Kinetic Energy ComparisonEKE at ~700 m in the Gulf Stream

Observations fromSchmitz (1996)

HYCOM - 2004NCOM - 2004

WorldOcean Gulf Stream

NW Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

EquatorialPacific Kuroshio Gulf of Mexico

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

Med

ian

SS

H a

no

mal

y co

rrel

atio

n

0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30

Forecast length (days)

Forecast verification statistics Forecast verification statistics from .08from .08 global HYCOM global HYCOM

4 Forecasts included in statistics

Product evaluationProduct evaluation

– Assessment of the outputs by comparison to independent observations

– Comparison with other GODAE products (i.e. MERSEA collaboration)

– Strong involvement of coastal ocean modeling groups to use and evaluate boundary conditions provided by the global and basin HYCOM real time prediction system outputs

Ivan SimulationIvan Simulation

(G. Halliwell, U. of Miami)(G. Halliwell, U. of Miami)

Blended NOGAPS wind field with HWIND

gridded vector wind fields from NOAA/HRD

West Florida Shelf ModelingWest Florida Shelf Modeling

Barth et al. (USFBarth et al. (USF))

WFS ROMS SST and surface velocity is

shown inside the dashed line and outside of this

area is the North Atlantic HYCOM.

Warm water is detached from the Loop Current

and transported northward as mesoscale

eddies and filaments.

Regional model for South Florida Regional model for South Florida seasseas

SoFLA-HYCOMSoFLA-HYCOM(South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)(South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)

Nested boundaries

Surface temperature and velocity

Kourafalou et al. (U. of Miami)Kourafalou et al. (U. of Miami)

Nested South Atlantic Bight Nested South Atlantic Bight Finite Element ModelFinite Element Model

Blanton et al. (UNC)Blanton et al. (UNC)

UNC-SAB modeling system sequence that nests the regional-scale QUODDY implementation (middle) within the 1/12° near real-time HYCOM-

GODAE model (left). The limited-area QUODDY implementation (right) includes the estuary and tidal inlets along the Georgia/South Carolina

coast and extends to the shelf-break.

US West Coast HYCOM with Biology US West Coast HYCOM with Biology Nested Nested in 1/12in 1/12°° Global HYCOM Basin Global HYCOM Basin

Kindle et al. (NRL)Kindle et al. (NRL)

Future Directions The 1/12 system is the foundation for the 1/25 global

HYCOM prediction system with tides and wetting and drying This is also the foundation for

Global ensemble nowcasting and forecasting for estimation of

prediction uncertainty Advanced data assimilation

Reanalysis Nested coastal ocean prediction with grid resolution < 1 km Range dependent acoustic prediction Coupled atmosphere – ocean prediction Bio – geo – chemical – optical and tracer/contaminant prediction Ecosystem analysis and prediction

Earth system prediction: coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land

Wetting and Drying Wetting and Drying in HYCOMin HYCOM

Mont Mont St MichelSt Michel

Wetting and Drying Wetting and Drying in HYCOMin HYCOM

0 meter0 meterlayer layer

thicknessthickness

Baraille et Baraille et al. (SHOM)al. (SHOM)

In order to achieve these goalsIn order to achieve these goals

• Continued community involvement to ensure that the numerical codes, data assimilation, framework, etc. are state-of-the-art and to maintain credibility

• Continued availability of a server for easy access to the model outputs and provision of boundary conditions

• Minimum dispersion of efforts among partners and users