uvac conference what might happen in 2015? york andy westwood november 2014

UVAC ConferenceWhat might happen in 2015?

York

Andy Westwood

November 2014

Six challenges for HE institutions 2015-2020

• Political decisions about undergraduate fees and numbers

• Immigration and student visas• Research funding and the REF results• Capital funding• Specialist, ‘high cost’ and WP funds • Increasing competition (and demographic

squeeze)

Six big political themes for 2015 onwards?

• Political and policy instability – both sides of May 2015…

• Continued public spending squeeze – especially for unprotected departments

• Likelihood of system and funding change in all four nations in 2015-2020

• Cost and homogeneity of HE• Productivity and growth (the real ‘long term’

economic plan’…)• The ‘Global Race’...

2014 cycle… record numbers?

Overall numbers dropping(but increasing in FT)…

The Rise of the ‘Gringo’…?

Declining numbers of young people (in UK) until 2021...

What is happening to ‘other’ HE?

• 28% fall in Postgraduate study• 50% fall in part time study• Big falls in non honours degree provision• Big falls in employer (public and private)

funded provision

Is there a Higher Education bubble?

Whoever gets in – there isn’t much money…

Permanent system or sliding off a cliff…

• RAB charge of 45% (and rising…)• 60% of students will never fully pay back their loans• Continuing cuts - HEFCE grant letter and more to come• But other indicators of dissatisfaction?• YouGov 60% of parents dissatisfied with fee levels• Top pay and continuing industrial action

• So there is a market for HE ideas and policies and prospect of very different propositions at election...

What might policy/politics offer?

• Labour committing to £6k (+ HEFCE grant?),

technical degrees & apprenticeships, industrial policy• Conservatives: £9k plus expansion, but further cuts to

HEFCE (and BIS) and loan book sell offs (including to universities)

• Lib Dems to endorse current fee regime and commit to free tuition when it's affordable... National Colleges (a future for FE & HE), cut out the ‘dross’…

• UKIP reduce numbers but

remove students from migration stats• Differentiation across UK?

Coalitions or minority Governments will look to common ground…

• Shared thinking on science and research?• Industrial Policy?• Devolution (skills, innovation etc)?• Higher level skills and apprenticeships• Regulation?

• But less agreement on undergraduate fees (within England or UK)?

Reimagining higher education?

• End or beginning of ‘one size fits all’?• Crosland and Robbins? Or expansion but in more

than one dimension?• Return of the Polytechnic or the College of

Advanced Technology?• Diverse – institutions, modes, qualifications, age?• More locally/regionally focused with more

devolution in system?• More industrial strategy – applied research in key

sectors, co-investment and co-creation?

• More thoughtful institutional strategy?

Challenges?

• The ‘identikit’ strategic plan? - increase market share, rise up league tables, internationalise, invest in student experience (build…)

• Risk (managing and taking)• Efficiencies (making more)• Differentiating & diversifying (doing different things well)• Real partnerships with employers, places and other

institutions• Confidence (being comfortable in own skin…)