vlerick alumni: 5th edition of the vlerick chief economists debate
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5TH CHIEF ECONOMIST DEBATE: 2014 – RECOVERY OR NEW BUBBLE?
Theme I: International Environment - Peter Vanden Houte: Chief Economist, ING
Theme II: Europe's Challenges - Frank Lierman: Chief Economist, Belfius
Theme III: Major Challenges of the Belgian Economy - Edwin De Boeck: Chief Economist, KBC Bank
Theme IV: Financial Markets Outlook - Bart Van Craeynest: Chief Economist, Petercam
Q&A
Moderator - Alain Deneef: Senior Portfolio Manager, Private Banking, Bank Degroof
Networking Reception
28 January 2014Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Peter Vanden HouteChief Economist, ING
Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
2014: Walking on eggshells Peter Vanden Houte
Chief Economist ING Belgium
Western world recovering, emerging countries lagging
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / ING
OECD leading indicator
2009 2010 2011 2012 201394
96
98
100
102
104
EMUBrazilChinaUnited StatesRussian FederationIndia
4
USEurozone
5
US government was a drag on growth
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream,ING
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100
105
110
115
120
100
105
110
115
120
Rebase GROSS OUTPUT OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT, VALUE ADDED : United States…Rebase GROSS VALUE ADDED - GDP, BUSINESS (AR) : United States to 100
6
Debt payments US households have fallen back strongly
US construction sector continues to boom
7
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1Y lag of NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS HOUSING MARKET INDEX : U…RESIDENTIAL PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT (AR) : United States (RH Scale)
8
Shale gas remains a game changer
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream,ING
Natural gas prices in EUR2008=100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Rebase London Natural Gas Index P/Therm (EUR) to 100Rebase Natural Gas, Henry Hub U$/MMBTU (EUR) to 100
Gas price Europe
Gas price US
9
Shale oil is making energy market less tight
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000 20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SURPLUS PRODUCTION CAPACITY - CRUDE OIL : OPECCrude Oil-Brent Cur. Month FOB U$/BBL (RH Scale)
10
No Fed hike expected in 2014…
• The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal
…but what about 2015?
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Y % change of AVG HRLY EARN - TOTAL PRIVATE NONFARM : United StatesUS FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE (RH Scale)
11
US yield curve will steepen in the course of 2014
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
US TREAS.BENCHMARK BOND 10 YR (DS)-US FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE
12
13
Emerging world remains vulnerable
Hungary
UkrainePoland
India
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
ColombiaBrazil
Indonesia
Turkey
China
Russia
RomaniaSouth Africa
Mexico
Chile
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Weak credit Too much credit
Capital surplus
Capital shortage
Real credit growth in excess of GDP growth, average, 2010-12 (percent)
Average currentaccount balance 2010-12 (percent of GDP)
Source:IMF
14
Chinese economy is stabilizing
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream,ING
Electricity consumption & cars sales in China
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Y % change of ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION (CMLV) : China1Y % change of SALES - PASSENGER CARS : China (RH Scale)
EUROPE’S CHALLENGES
Frank LiermanChief Economist, Belfius
Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
More or less inflation in the euro area? That’s the question!
Frank Lierman, Chief Economist
Vlerick Finance Alumni
Brussels, January 28, 2014
1. More than a bottoming out?
2. Towards deflation?
3. Social pack as missing link?
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
More or less inflation in the euro area? That’s the question!
17
1. More than a bottoming out?
2. Towards deflation?
3. Social pack as missing link?
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
More or less inflation in the euro area?That’s the question!
18
19
1. More than a bottoming out?
Increased confidence, prelude for economic rebound?
Euro Area
19
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (Right)Euro Area GDP (% YoY) (Left)
20
1. More than a bottoming out?
Consumer spending as driving force?
Euro Area
20
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Euro Area Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (MOV 3M, % 1 YR) (Left)Euro Area Consumer Confidence Indicator (Right)
21
1. More than a bottoming out?
Turnaround of industrial production?
Euro Area
21
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
Euro Area Capacity Utilization (%) (Right)Euro Area Industrial Production (% YoY) (Left)
22
1. More than a bottoming out?
International trade crucial for sustainable recovery?Euro Area
22
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Euro Area Exports of goods & services (% YoY) Euro Area Imports of goods & services (% YoY)
23
1. More than a bottoming out?
Ceiling for unemployment in euro area, decrease elsewhere
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '133
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - Euro Area Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate, Sa - United States Unemployment Rate, Sa - Japan
24
1. More than a bottoming out?
Sustainable decrease of public deficit?
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Governm ent Net Lending, As A Percentage Of Gdp - Euro Area
25
1. More than a bottoming out?
Worrying increase of government debt
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1365
70
75
80
85
90
95 General Governm ent Gross Debt, % Of Gdp, - Euro Area (17 Countries )
1. More than a bottoming out?
2. Towards deflation?
3. Social pack as missing link?
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
More or less inflation in the euro area?That’s the question!
26
27
2. Towards deflation?
27
Inflation on the way to 0%?
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
Euro Area Harmonized CPI (% YoY) Euro Area Core inflation (Overall Index, Excluding Energy and Unprocessed Food) (% YoY)
28
2. Towards deflation?
28
Underlying inflation decreases also
Onderliggende inflatie
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2010
-08
2010
-10
2010
-12
2011
-02
2011
-04
2011
-06
2011
-08
2011
-10
2011
-12
2012
-02
2012
-04
2012
-06
2012
-08
2012
-10
2012
-12
2013
-02
2013
-04
2013
-06
2013
-08
2013
-10
2013
-12
België EurozoneBelgium Euro area
29
2. Towards deflation?
29
Money supply decreases even in a LTRO’s environment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Euro Area Growth Rate M3 (% YoY; 3 Month Moving Average)
30
2. Towards deflation?
Accelerated decrease of LTRO’s due to reimbursement of banks
31
2. Towards deflation?
Disappointing evolution of credit to the economy (% / year)
31
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5
0
5
10
15
20
Euro Area Loans to Households (% YoY) Euro Area Loans To Non-Financial Corporations (% YoY)
32
2. Towards deflation?
32
Lower energycost is welcome
Energiedragers
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010
-08
2010
-10
2010
-12
2011
-02
2011
-04
2011
-06
2011
-08
2011
-10
2011
-12
2012
-02
2012
-04
2012
-06
2012
-08
2012
-10
2012
-12
2013
-02
2013
-04
2013
-06
2013
-08
2013
-10
2013
-12
België EurozoneBelgium Euro area
33
2. Towards deflation?
33
'85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Crude Oil, Brent ($/bbl) - Close
Stagnation of oil price between 100 and 120 USD/Barrel
34
2. Towards deflation?Remarkable strength of euro
34
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '131,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
FX Rate - Spot Mid - US Dollar per Euro
1. More than a bottoming out?
2. Towards deflation?
3. Social pack as missing link?
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
More or less inflation in the euro area?That’s the question!
35
36
3. Social pack as missing link?
German unemployment at bottom, while other countries reached a ceiling
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '132
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - Germany Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - Netherlands Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - France Harmonized Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes, All Ages, Sa - Belgium
37
3. Social pack as missing link?
Increasing and or huge unemployment is often linked to Too high fiscal burden
High employers and personal contributions
Expensive rules of lay offs
Inflexible wage negotiations
Low qualification of workers
Low employment rate
Short careers
…
But also influence of
Overcapacity of production equipment
Insufficient internal demand
Necessity to reduce debt of households
Increased precautionary savings of households
Decreased competitiveness
…
38
3. Social pack as missing link?
Key success factors for a reform
Limitation of unemployment allowances
Decrease or at least slower increase of salaries
Decrease of fiscal and parafiscal burden on labour revenues
Reduction of employment in public sector
Increased flexibility
Active employment policy
Activation of unemployed people
Education and training
Premiums
Subsidised employment
…
Measures to stimulate the creation of companies
39
3. Social pack as missing link?The European 7 stages plan to reduce youth unemployment
Employment guarantee (within 4 months after school leave or start unemployment)
European Social Fund and European Structural and Investment Fund: 25% of their capital (80 bn EUR) to invest in human capital
Initiatives to stimulate employment for youth: 6 bn EUR in 2014 and 2015
Stimulation of mobility within EU via European Employment Network
European alliance for trainings, Erasmus+, …
European labour market via transfer of pension rights, professional qualifications, rights of mobile workers, …
Help to SME’s and micro companies to hire young persons via European Regional Development Fund, EIB (yearly budget of 12,5 bn EUR which could increase up to 37,5 bn EUR via co financing and indirect credits)
1. More than a bottoming out?
2. Towards deflation?
3. Social pack as missing link?
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
More or less inflation in the euro area?That’s the question!
40
41
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
Three pillars
European prudential surveillance
ECB from November 2014 on
Assessment of broad risk factors on liquidity and funding (Winter 2014)
Asset Quality Review (Spring 2014)
Stress test (Summer 2014)
Only for some 130 of the 6000 European banks (85% of euro area banking systems) (min 30 bn EUR or balance sheet of more than 20% of GDP or having received state aid)
Forced recapitalisation: who pays the bill?
National government
Private shareholders
ESM
… ?
42
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
Three pillars (2)
European resolution mechanism and fund
Each bank has to prepare recovery plan
European resolution council (EC, ECB, national surveillance authorities)
Resolution fund: 1% of covered deposits via contributions of banks (up to 2026) (goal 55 bn EUR)
Resolution mechanism: steps
8 % of liabilities (equity capital, reserves, unsecured bonds, deposits above 100.000 EUR)
National resolution fund
European resolution fund
ESM
National budgets
43
4. Banking Union, the ultimate solution?
Three pillars (3)
European deposit guarantee
100.000 euro per individual per bank
Current, saving and term accounts plus saving bonds
National funds (0,8% of covered deposits)
Merger of the national funds in 2026.
MAJOR CHALLENGES OF THE BELGIAN ECONOMY
Edwin De BoeckChief Economist, KBC Bank
Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
Major challenges of the Belgian economy
Edwin De BoeckChief Economist KBC Group
January 28th 2014
46
Real GDP Q4 2007 – Q3 2013
(% change)
Employment Q4 2007 – Q3 2013 (%
change)
Financial & economic crisisBelgium weathered the crisis reasonably well
Germany
Austria
Belgium
France
EMU
Netherlands
Finland
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
47
3909
7
3927
8
3946
2
3964
4
3982
8
4000
9
4019
3
4037
4
4055
8
4073
9
4092
3
4110
5
4128
9
4147
0
4162
3-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3909
7
3927
8
3946
2
3964
4
3982
8
4000
9
4019
3
4037
4
4055
8
4073
9
4092
3
4110
5
4128
9
4147
0-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Belgium
Germany
Euro-periphery (*)
Marked improvement in sentimentModerate recovery in Belgium leading to +/-1.2% growth in 2014
(*) Euro-periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain
Producer confidence (standard deviation from LT-average)
Consumer confidence (standard deviation from LT-average)
48
1960-73 1974-81 1982-89 1990-99 2000-120
1
2
3
4
5
6
Flanders
Wallonia
Brussels
Euro Area
Flanders loosing its growth advantage (regional GDP-growth, in
% per year, period averages)
Long-term potential growthEstimated at well below 2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Belgium - Declining trend of productivity growth (GDP per worker, YoY-growth in %)
49
5
7
9
11
13
15
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
Absolute number (rhs)Per 1000 active businesses (lhs)Ratio of new businesses to bankruptcies (lhs)
Still substantial slack in the economy Wave of unemployment & bankruptcies probably to continue for a while
Jan-0
7
Jul-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jul-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jul-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jul-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jul-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jul-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jul-1
32
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22BelgiumFranceGermanyNetherlandsEuro-periphery (*)
Unemployment rate(harmonized and seasonally adjusted, in %)
Belgium - Bankruptcies
50
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2013
2020
50
55
60
65
70
75
FlandersWalloniaBrusselsBelgium
Employment rate (employed people in % population aged 20-64)
EU2020 Strategy Belgium 73.2%
EU2020 Strategy Flanders 76%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1970
19751982
198519901995
2000
2005
2012
Both a large pool of unfilled job vacanciesand persistent unemployment
Unemployment rate (unemployed as a % labour force)
Job
vac
ancy
rat
e (u
nfi
lled
vac
anci
es a
s a
% l
abo
ur
forc
e)
Labour marketLabour mismatch hinders the increase in employment rate
Beveridge curve Belgium
51
Current account balance (in % of GDP)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Germany
Euro-periphery (*)
Belgium
(*) Euro-periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Devaluation BEF
Introduction ‘health index’
???
External position Deterioration of cost competitiveness…
Relative unit labour costs (vs. EU-15, 2005 = 100)
52
20
25
30
35
40
45
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
201070
100
130
160
190
Flanders
Wallonia
Employment in manufacturing (2000 = 100)
Share manufacturing sector (including construction & energy, in
% of GDP)
Share manufacturing sector (excluding construction & energy, in % of GDP)
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
13%
16%
19%
22%
25%
Belgium
Germany
Industrial activity …adds to the process of desindustrialisation
53
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1.8
0.6
00.3
1.00.75
1.25
0.75
0.4
-0.2
Realised balanceTarget Stability Program 2013-2016EC Autumn projection (no policy change)
Projected structural budget balance (in % of GDP)
Public financesFiscal consolidation has been ‘back-loaded’
Belgiu
m
Nether
lands
Irela
ndIta
ly
France
Spain
Portugal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Structural budget adjustments 2009-2013To be realised before 2016
Budgetary consolidation (structural effort, as a % of GDP)
54
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Public pension and healthcare benefits
(in % of GDP)
Healthcare
Pensions
Belgium
Finland
Luxemburg
Netherlands
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Sweden
France
UK
Greece
Spain
Italy
Portugal
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pensions
Other
Projected change of ageing-related expenditures
(in % of GDP, 2010-2030)
Source: Ageing Report, EC 2012
BelgiumAgeing strikes
55
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Public pension and healthcare benefits
(in % of GDP)
Healthcare
Pensions
BelgiumAgeing costs - Worrying, but not (yet) unsustainable
Gross public debt in % of GDP after 2016 (Stability Program until 2016)
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
2024
2030
2036
2042
2048
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Scenario 1: primary surplus remains at 2016 level (+3.4% of GDP)
56
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Gross public debt
In % of GDP
In % net household wealth
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Net household wealth (in % of GDP)
Net financial assets
Real estate
Total
BelgiumPoor government, wealthy households
5720
09Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q295
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110Belgium (ECB-index)
Belgium (Eurostat-index)
Belgium (FOD-index)
EMU (Eurostat-index)
Recent property price development (all types of dwellings, 2011Q1 = 100)
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000Number of home sales (lhs)
New production of housing loans (rhs)
Housing market Sales transactions & new mortgages declining, prices not (yet) cooling off
FINANCIAL MARKETS OUTLOOK
Bart Van CraeynestChief Economist, Petercam
Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
60/2521-09-2011
Titre de la présentation
Tuesday 28 January 2014
InstitutionalAsset Management
Vlerick Alumni Debate
6128-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Global recovery
Feb-95 Feb-97 Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
96
97
98
99
100
101
102Global industrial production (annual change) OECD leading indicator (rhs)
6228-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
An extended period of low bond yields
Dec-99 Dec-09 Dec-19 Dec-29 Dec-39 Dec-49 Dec-59 Dec-69 Dec-79 Dec-89 Dec-99 Dec-090
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US bond yield
6328-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Financial repression
Business confidence
6428-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Recovering equity markets
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1440
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130US Europe EM
Index (start 2008 = 100)
6528-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Bubbles?
Dec-99 Dec-09 Dec-19 Dec-29 Dec-39 Dec-49 Dec-59 Dec-69 Dec-79 Dec-89 Dec-99 Dec-090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Valuation S&P500 (Shiller PE)
US equities
6628-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Global equities still offer return potential
Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Return over the next 10y (annual average, in %)
MSCI World
6728-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Rotation towards equity
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Equities Bonds
Investments of US mutual funds (cumulative, bn dollar)
67
6828-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Japanese equity is very much geared to global recovery
6928-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |
Global asset class outlook
US Eq Euro Eq EM Eq JP Eq US Gov Euro Gov Euro Credit Euro HY0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6%
0.3%
17%
8%
19%
2.1%
1.8%
4.5%
Expected returns 2014
Returns in local currency
70/2528-01-2014 | Petercam Macro Presentation |70
Bart Van CraeynestChief Economistbart.vancraeynest@petercam.beTel.: +32 (0)2 229 62 32
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Twitter: @BVanCraeynest
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