volcanic ash - developments since 2010 © crown copyright met office ian cameron, met office...
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Volcanic Ash - developments since 2010Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation, June 2014
London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC)
© Crown copyright Met Office
• The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated centre, responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland and the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic.
Lessons learned
• Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics)
• Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations to verify forecasts
• What are we forecasting? (leading to new Visible/discernible ash definitions)
• Need for operators to assume responsibility for safe operation in contaminated airspace
© Crown copyright Met Office
© Crown copyright Met Office
MoU Steering Group
Volcanic Ash Stakeholder Mapping
VAAC London, ADAQ & Observations:Satellite, Obs
Programme, OBR
MET OFFICEICAO led
IAVWOPSG
IUGG/WMO VASAG
CAA led UK VAAG
DfT ledVAORG
EuroControl/ECEACCC
Green box: UK Met OfficeBlue star: GroupsGrey box: External Organisations and groupings Organisation belonging to linked grouping
SAGE/COBR
IATA (Airlines)
IFALPA (Pilots)
CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators)
NATS
European ATMCommunity
ICAO
ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries)
Met & Atmospheric Agencies e.g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET
Volcano ObservatoriesIMO
Research Centres/
Academia
NCAS
BGS
VAACs
EU Programmes & Activities e.g.
EUMETSAT, ESA, EUFAR, EASA
EC
UK Civil aviation Cabinet Office
OEMs
Defence
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Cloud
Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer
Aircraft
Lidar
Satellite
Sun Photometer
Radar
Enhanced Volcanic ash Observations
Improved Volcanic ash modelling
• All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on meteorological data and ash observations
• “Eruption Source Parameters” include start time, height, location, mass eruption rate and the variation of these with time (from Iceland Met Office)
• Met Office Global NWP is used for volcanic ash applications
• Moving to 17 km resolution in July
1.5km gridUp to 36hr6-hourly update
25km gridUp to 144hr6-hourly update
Resuspended Ash
• Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME
• Daily resuspended ash forecast produced for Iceland Met Office since late 2010
• Work with Bristol University on a resuspended ash event in August 2013 (paper submitted)
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The VAAC Process
VAAC chart
Volcano data
Met Office Weather forecast models
Weather observations
NAME dispersion model
Other models
Forecaster
Satellite + other observations
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New forecasting tools and products
Annotated satellite images – used in daily Science/CAA briefing during an eruption
Concentration charts
Conclusion
• Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored and forecasts of ash movement are issued.
• Met Office will utilise dispersion models to understand how any volcanic ash will move in the atmosphere.
• Met Office will communicate this information to all airspace users utilising agreed products.
• But it is operators that determine safe operations in contaminated airspace through their Safety Risk Assessments.
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